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    Originally posted by The Awesome Berbaslug!!! View Post
    in 2007 italy had a debt to gdp ratio of 99% and a budget deficit of 2.6%, and growth of 2.2%. That's what I mean by being in the same place. Italy were only two or three bad years away from going bankrupt. That's where France are right now, along with Spain, and belgium. Portugal, Italy and greece are technically currently bankrupt, but portugal doesn't seem to be borrowing any money any more.

    Of course, as I said, government spending in France (~56% of GDP) is still too high and that's a worry.

    That's tricky. The fundamental issue there is not so much that the public sector is too big, it's that the private sector is too small. A lot of France's issues could be resolved by getting the two to meet in the middle. In Denmark it's pretty much 50:50, and that seems to work very well for them.

    OK for your comparison above re Italy vs France, no country should be complacent, we’ve seen what happened in the US and the UK with Brexit, and I do not want to appear as if I'm minimising the threat of the Front National, the fuckers do scare me and all, but every country has a different political and electoral system. The French presidential & GE election (two-round) system was designed to make it extremely hard for dangerous Front National cranks type to be voted in. I mean even now with the FN riding quite high (2017 – 21% for the FN in the first round, 33% in the 2nd), they still ended up with only 8 MPs last June.

    I don't necessarily mean the Front National. France is the country that can create an entire national movement that sweeps the presidency and the parliament, pretty much overnight. That's far too fluid for my tastes. A conservative is basically a fascist who hasn't met the right charismatic leader to make their sense of frustrated entitlement feel better yet. For a leftist Populist like melenchon, and his supporters, the switch to fascism is merely a change in the identity of who you blame.

    Given France's response to Juppe trying to cut the deficit from 5% to 3% in 1995, or what happened when they tried to raise the pension age from 65-67, I struggle to imagine what would happen in France if you were to try and actually go through with a bailout. Where you're frequently talking about cutting 3-4% of a budget deficit for 3 or 4 years in a row. Think of the strikes, think of how long they would go on? think of how little they would achieve in altering the external situation.

    There's a deeply unpleasant, dark and poisoned strain of French nationalism, and a curdled sense of disappointment akin to the one in the Uk over the loss of their empire, and it drives an unwillingness to engage with the rest of the world. I don't think that it really wouldn't take too much. I think France would respond really badly to a national bankruptcy.
    Quite a lot there to respond to, I’ll try to take your interesting points seriatim over the next few days if I can, then I’ll be going away for 10 days in the Lakes and Yorkshire.

    Just out of interest, where do you get your info on France from, what are your main sources of info on France?

    I suggest we take this to the French thread too, I would hate to spoil the Brexit thread with our franchouillard stuff.

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      Peter Foster cutting through the guff, and recognising that the White Paper will be CU-esque mutton dressed as Canadian lamb:

      https://mobile.twitter.com/pmdfoster...70421815083008

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        Latest Welsh opinion poll gives the following Westminster projection:

        Labour 28 seats
        Tories 8 "
        Plaid 4"

        And in the Senedd:

        Labour 28
        Plaid 15
        Tories 15
        Lib Dems 1
        UKIP 1

        http://blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/elections...ometer-poll-6/

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          Still one kipper? Fuckin hell.

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            https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1013880759101329409?s=21

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              A "third way plan"? Good grief, this Brexit pantomime is getting more hilarious by the day. What or who does it involve this time, some divine intervention from Treeza's forebears? Harry Potter? James Bond?

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                Latest is that No.10 says there's a 3rd way plan, but another part of government (DEXEU? DOSAC?) says there's just Max Fac Plus.

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                  Given that their last third way was just to say "what about both of them?", I wouldn't be surprised if it's the same, again.

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                    When is a plan not a plan?

                    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/uk-po...mpression=true

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                      Laura Kuennsberg should call a halt to indulging the serial fantasises of the Conservative party.

                      Tubby she has more power currently than Jeremy Corbyn,

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                        Here's something for him. If this is what Steve Bullock says it is, it's big. Looks like AIG telling a client its insurance policy is all fine, but will be managed from Luxembourg as a result of Brexit.

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                          Originally posted by Diable Rouge View Post
                          Pippa Crerar, of the Grauniad, describes it as "max fac plus" - in other words, another vacuous fudge that the EU will promptly shred.
                          It's turning into a stand-up routine about flu medicine - it can't have been max after all if you can add something to it.

                          Comment


                            Originally posted by Tubby Isaacs View Post
                            Here's something for him. If this is what Steve Bullock says it is, it's big. Looks like AIG telling a client its insurance policy is all fine, but will be managed from Luxembourg as a result of Brexit.
                            I don't know what Steve Bullock says, but insurance contracts moving to EU-27 entities is not news. It's been going on for months and is ramping up now that a no-deal Brexit is getting ever more likely. The Bank of England flagged it as one of their biggest financial stability risks last week. Derivatives are fucked as well in a no-deal scenario, because you can't legally service a derivative contract if you're not an authorised entity.

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                              BoE commentary on the above:

                              Insurers in the UK and the European Economic Area (EEA) may not be able to service their existing
                              contracts in the other jurisdiction without local authorisation.
                              The UK Government has committed to legislate, if necessary, to allow EEA insurance companies to
                              continue to service insurance policies held by customers in the UK (through a temporary permissions
                              regime and additional legislation if required). Once this legislation is passed, risks to UK-based
                              customers would be mitigated. In light of this, the PRA wrote to EEA insurers on 28 March 2018 to
                              explain that these insurers can plan on the assumption that they will only need PRA authorisation by
                              the end of the implementation period.
                              EEA customers are currently reliant on their UK insurance company taking action (eg by transferring
                              existing contracts to legal entities located and authorised in the EU).
                              OTC derivative
                              contracts
                              (uncleared)
                              UK and EEA parties may no longer have the necessary permissions to service uncleared
                              over‑the‑counter (OTC) derivative contracts with parties in the other jurisdiction.
                              Effective mitigation of the risk, other than through a bilateral agreement, would require legislation in
                              both the UK and EEA to protect the servicing of existing contracts.
                              The UK Government has committed to legislate, if necessary, to allow EEA counterparties to continue
                              servicing contracts with UK entities (through a temporary permissions regime and additional
                              legislation if required). EU authorities have not announced an intention to enable UK counterparties to
                              continue servicing contracts with counterparties in the EEA.
                              OTC derivative
                              contracts
                              (cleared)
                              Many major UK and EEA counterparties are required by EU law to clear contracts in certain products
                              using central counterparties (CCPs) that have been authorised or recognised by EU authorities.
                              If clearing houses are not recognised, clearing members’ ability to meet existing contractual
                              obligations to UK CCPs will be compromised. Absent action by EU authorities the risk to the UK could
                              be mitigated by the orderly transfer of EEA clearing members and clients out of UK CCPs.

                              Comment


                                Originally posted by Ginger Yellow View Post
                                I don't know what Steve Bullock says, but insurance contracts moving to EU-27 entities is not news. It's been going on for months and is ramping up now that a no-deal Brexit is getting ever more likely. The Bank of England flagged it as one of their biggest financial stability risks last week. Derivatives are fucked as well in a no-deal scenario, because you can't legally service a derivative contract if you're not an authorised entity.
                                Bullock is saying the same thing as you, he's just pointing out that it's actually happening.

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                                  Classic Kuenssberg, boosting the Tories and doing their dirty work for them. Cuh. Disgrace. Etc. Why doesn't she just call herself "Theresa May" and be done with it? British Broadcasting Conservatives more like!

                                  Comment


                                    Much like the Fast Show's "cheesy peas" sketch, if you don't like the customs partnership or max fac, you'll love them combined!

                                    https://m.facebook.com/1498276767163...3159307675470/

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                                      There's something in there that Peston doesn't raise an issue with. it's the bit where they're talking about the four freedoms, and there's this idea that the UK can gain some Single market access, by making some concessions on free movement. The thing is that these things aren't incremental. A slightly reduced red line is still a red line.

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                                        Bump: https://www.onetouchfootball.com/sho...=1#post1447791

                                        Disappointed you don't seem to be interested in continuing this interesting discussion TAB (unless you've missed my post of course), I wanted to pick your brains on a few things (eg Denmark) and other stuff but never mind, another time maybe. Is there a dedicated economics thread on OFT?

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                                          hah, I was waiting for you to bring it up on the French thread.

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                                            Given what's going on in Germany and Italy, I can see that the UK has reasons for wondering if that red line might be a little pinkish.

                                            Comment


                                              Without defending the policy, it's not really touching directly on the red line is it? The red line is rights of residence/labour for EU citizens. Schengen facilitates that, and obviously is imperilled by the policy, but it's not absolutely necessary - obviously, because Britain was in the EU and not Schengen, and Ireland will still be.

                                              Meanwhile, here's Faisal Islam on a customs meeting with big business back in June, at which the government acknowledged it could take five years to put a new system in place. On the plus side, maybe the government hasn't just been faffing about:
                                              Business representatives were surprised by how thoroughly both the "new customs partnership" and the "maximum facilitation" customs models - currently being considered by ministers - had been developed by officials, and by external consultants including McKinsey and Boston Consulting Group.
                                              Also, I note that BMW was at this meeting and its warning about moving production came after it.

                                              More detailed Twitter thread (what a dumb world we live in) here.
                                              Last edited by Ginger Yellow; 04-07-2018, 09:00.

                                              Comment


                                                Is JRM Wingco incarnate? "Stiffen the sinews, summon up the blood, then imitate the action of the tiger":

                                                https://mobile.twitter.com/faisalisl...67427768807427

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                                                  Can't be. Wing commanders didn't exist when JRM comes from.

                                                  Comment


                                                    Wing commanders didn't exist in the Boer War either, yet here we are.

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