The Brexit Thread

[Snake Plissken]

Brexit Means: Leaving Single Market, Customs Union European Court of Justice

She has also admitted that trade deals won't even be discussed until the terms of leaving are finished, both things dismissed as Project Fear by the Leave mob. So much for everything being done and dusted in two years, or by September 17th 2016 (according to D. Davis).

Farage stood up in the EU Parliament today - must be the one day a quarter he shows up - to compare the EU negotiators to the Mafia. So that will help.

Tusk put him down quite nicely though - "I remind you that the UK is leaving the EU, not the other way around."

[Moonlight Shadow]

Brexit Means: Leaving Single Market, Customs Union European Court of Justice

Comparing Farage demented rant against Verohfstaadt gracious and fair speech about Brexit and the UK is quite depressing...

There seems to be a more realistic vibe coming out of HMG, interesting...

[Tubby Isaacs]

Brexit Means: Leaving Single Market, Customs Union European Court of Justice

Allowing that the deal might take longer is a good card v Sturgeon too. A good card v the SNP is a good card for the Tories in England and Wales.

[Diable Rouge]

Brexit Means: Leaving Single Market, Customs Union European Court of Justice

Interestingly, the Catalans have now entered the Gibraltar debate, siding with the Crown Dependency on the grounds of self-determination.

[E10 Rifle]

Brexit Means: Leaving Single Market, Customs Union European Court of Justice

Can the title of this thread be amended to also include: "... means cuddling up to every tinpot dictator going and becoming, basically, Dubai with rain

[The Awesome Berbaslug!!!]

Brexit Means: Leaving Single Market, Customs Union European Court of Justice

I'm not sure if the UK govt is sounding more realistic, or if they simply can't ignore what the EU has been saying for months, but also very loudly and very clearly over the last couple of days. meanwhile verhofstadt's speech to the European Parliament had these rather amusing lines.

Perhaps it was always impossible to unite Great Britain with the continent. Naive to reconcile the legal system of Napoleon with the common law of the British empire. Perhaps it was never meant to be.

But, our predecessors should never be blamed for having tried. Never. It’s as important in politics as it is in life: to try; new partnerships, new horizons, to reach out to each other, the other side of the Channel. I am also sure that - one day or another - there will be a young man or woman who will try again, who will lead Britain into the European family once again. A young generation that will see Brexit for what it really is: a catfight in the Conservative party that got out of hand, a loss of time, a waste of energy, stupidity.

Let’s not forget: Britain entered the union as the ‘sick man of Europe’ and - thanks to the single market - came out of the other side. Europe made Britain also punch above its weight in terms of geopolitics, as in the heydays of the British empire. And we from our side must pay tribute to Britain’s immense contributions: a staunch, unmatched defender of free markets and civil liberties. Thank you for that. As a liberal, I tell you, I will miss that.

ouch.

[The Awesome Berbaslug!!!]

Brexit Means: Leaving Single Market, Customs Union European Court of Justice

Here's a bit from the guardian about the parliament's red lines for the EU negotiations.

10 'red lines' in the European parliament's Brexit guidelines which cause difficulties for the UK

The Brexit negotiating guidelines agreed by the European parliament this morning are not binding. What will matter most will be the guidelines agreed by EU leaders at the summit that Donald Tusk, the president of the European council, has called for Saturday 29 April.

But the MEPs’ guidelines will be influential. Any final Brexit deal needs the approval of the European parliament and, although the prospect of the parliament blocking a deal seems very remote, the threat of such a veto may give MEPs some leverage. And it is significant that the guidelines have the backing of all the pro-EU groups in the parliament.

Tusk will finalise the EU’s negotiating guidelines at the end of this month but he released draft guidelines on Friday last week. You can read them in full here. The parliament’s guidelines, which you can read here, overlap with Tusk’s in many respects. But they are also more detailed and, in several respects, noticeably “tougher” than Tusk’s. The 560-133 vote in favour of them in Luxembourg this morning will not make Theresa May’s task any easier.

Here are 10 key points from the parliament’s guidelines, with notes showing how they differ from the Tusk guidelines.

1 - The UK must not be offered a deal that offers all the advantages of single market membership.

[The parliament] regrets the decision by the United Kingdom government not to participate in the internal market, the European Economic Area or the customs union; considers that a state withdrawing from the union cannot enjoy similar benefits to those enjoyed by a union member state, and therefore announces that it will not consent to any agreement that would contradict this.

Note: This is a key principle, and the Tusk guidelines says something very similar.

2 - Talks on a future UK-EU trade deal should not start until “substantial progress” has been made in the talks on the withdrawal deal.

Note: This is a flashpoint, because the UK wants the exit talks and the trade talks to run in parallel. The Tusk guidelines say much the same, although they talk about the need for “sufficient progress” on withdrawal before trade talks can start. The parliament’s threshold (“substantial”) is higher.

3 - The UK-EU trade deal can only be concluded after the UK has left the EU.

Note: The Tusk guidelines say the same. The UK government has now accepted this, dashing Theresa May’s hopes of finalising a trade deal within two years.

4 - The European court of justice must be “the competent authority for the interpretation and enforcement of the withdrawal agreement”.

Note: This is more specific than the Tusk guidelines, which say “the withdrawal agreement should include appropriate dispute settlement mechanisms”, implying the ECJ might not be the court that polices the deal.

5 - Britain must pay an exit bill.

[The parliament] stresses that a single financial settlement with the United Kingdom on the basis of the European Union’s annual accounts as audited by the European Court of Auditors must include all its legal liabilities arising from outstanding commitments as well as making provision for off-balance sheet items, contingent liabilities and other financial costs arising directly as a result of the United Kingdom’s withdrawal.

Note: The Tusk guidelines are similar, but they do not include the line about the UK’s bill including “other financial costs arising directly as a result of the United Kingdom’s withdrawal”, which implies perhaps that the parliament favours a more stringent approach to calculating the UK’s liabilities.

6 - Any future UK-EU trade deal must not allow the UK to cut standards.

[The parliament] stresses that any future agreement between the European Union and the United Kingdom is conditional on the United Kingdom’s continued adherence to the standards provided by international obligations, including human rights, and the Union’s legislation and policies, in, among others, the fields of the environment, climate change, the fight against tax evasion and avoidance, fair competition, trade and social rights, especially safeguards against social dumping.
Note: The Tusk guidelines are very similar. This condition is key, because it suggests that MPs who want Brexit to lead to a bonfire of regulation will find this incompatible with a UK-EU trade deal.

7 - Any future UK-EU trade deal must not contain special “sectoral provision” for certain parts of the economy.

[The parliament] opposes any future agreement between the European Union and the United Kingdom that would contain piecemeal or sectorial provisions, including with respect to financial services, providing United Kingdom-based undertakings with preferential access to the internal market and/or the customs union.

Note: The Tusk guidelines rule out the UK participating in the single market “on a sector-by-sector approach”, but the parliament’s go further, significantly ruling out a special deal for City. In her Lancaster House speech May floated the idea of the UK being able to keep single market arrangements in areas like the car sector or banking. These guidelines rule that out.

8 - European court of justice rulings should continue to apply to the UK during any transition period.

Note: The Tusk guidelines essentially say the same, although they are not quite as specific.

9 - Any transitional period should last for no longer than three years.

Note: This more specific than the Tusk guidelines, which say any transitional arrangements should be “time-limited” but do not say for how long.

10 - If the UK starts trade negotiations with other countries before Brexit, that will be against EU rules.

It would be contrary to union law for the United Kingdom to begin, in advance of its withdrawal, negotiations on possible trade agreements with third countries.
Note: This is just a statement of EU law (although at what point informal talks, of the kind Liam Fox has been having with foreign trade ministers, becomes a “negotiation” is not clear). But the parliament’s decision to include it reads like a warning.

[Ginger Yellow]

Brexit Means: Leaving Single Market, Customs Union European Court of Justice

I'm not sure if the UK govt is sounding more realistic, or if they simply can't ignore what the EU has been saying for months, but also very loudly and very clearly over the last couple of days.

Six of one and half a dozen of the other, really. They've (or at least May and the Brexiteers) have gone from saying "no transition" to "We'll accept transition but with full sovereignty after the article 50 period", to something like "the transition will basically be time-limited EAA membership".

[anton pulisov]

Brexit Means: Leaving Single Market, Customs Union European Court of Justice

Guy Verhofstadt does like free markets, especially when they help corporations where he is a paid board member.

[Lang Spoon]

Brexit Means: Leaving Single Market, Customs Union European Court of Justice

Tubby Isaacs wrote: Allowing that the deal might take longer is a good card v Sturgeon. A good card v the SNP is a good card for the Tories in England and Wales.

Which is what really matters, innit Tubbs?

[Moonlight Shadow]

Brexit Means: Leaving Single Market, Customs Union European Court of Justice

The chaps at Liberal Leave must be wondering if their original idea of an interim period as EEA member to allow the UK to prepare in timely fashion is suddenly back in fashion. Mind, their interim period was about 20 years...

[Snake Plissken]

Brexit Means: Leaving Single Market, Customs Union European Court of Justice

Not that many Leave voters will have noticed, but the UK just got a lesson in how EU democracy works.

[Diable Rouge]

Brexit Means: Leaving Single Market, Customs Union European Court of Justice

Moonlight shadow wrote: The chaps at Liberal Leave must be wondering if their original idea of an interim period as EEA member to allow the UK to prepare in timely fashion is suddenly back in fashion. Mind, their interim period was about 20 years...

With the FT front page suggesting FoM will continue beyond 2019, is this merely the initial step in winning people around to remaining in the Single Market?

[Tubby Isaacs]

Brexit Means: Leaving Single Market, Customs Union European Court of Justice

Lang Spoon wrote:

Allowing that the deal might take longer is a good card v Sturgeon. A good card v the SNP is a good card for the Tories in England and Wales.

Which is what really matters, innit Tubbs?

Ha.

The way May's mind seems to work, she probably gave ground solely to give an impression Sturgeon has gone too early.

I want Sturgeon on the Soft Brexit beat full time for now to save us from our own shit. But God moves in mysterious ways, I suppose.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Brexit Means: Leaving Single Market, Customs Union European Court of Justice

Diable Rouge wrote:

The chaps at Liberal Leave must be wondering if their original idea of an interim period as EEA member to allow the UK to prepare in timely fashion is suddenly back in fashion. Mind, their interim period was about 20 years...

With the FT front page suggesting FoM will continue beyond 2019, is this merely the initial step in winning people around to remaining in the Single Market?

Might be. I can't believe that Nissan weren't told we were staying in. Gove, I recall, in the way he can sometimes surprise you, said in the referendum that there wasn't any rush to restrict freedom of movement, and was thinking of about 2021, I recall.

[Moonlight Shadow]

Brexit Means: Leaving Single Market, Customs Union European Court of Justice

The crazed Brexiters are starting to talk about "betrayal", I expect the Daily Mail will run that line soon so if this sudden rush of common sense carries on.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Brexit Means: Leaving Single Market, Customs Union European Court of Justice

We can't be too far off our first media-led boycott campaign.

[Lang Spoon]

Brexit Means: Leaving Single Market, Customs Union European Court of Justice

What exactly was going on with Foxy and Duterte? Are we tipping him some nasty arms before he gets sanctions?

[Ginger Yellow]

Brexit Means: Leaving Single Market, Customs Union European Court of Justice

Given Fox's history, that seems a safe bet.

[Diable Rouge]

Brexit Means: Leaving Single Market, Customs Union European Court of Justice

Rock on, Rockall!

[Duncan Gardner]

Brexit Means: Leaving Single Market, Customs Union European Court of Justice

I'd give Rockall fast-track EU and UEFA membership- they could cause Timothy or Linfield some problems in the CL July qualifiers?

[Tubby Isaacs]

Brexit Means: Leaving Single Market, Customs Union European Court of Justice

Owen Paterson discovers a new category of indispensable migrants. Abattoir workers. Absolutely correct.

Who are the bad migrants?

[Duncan Gardner]

Brexit Means: Leaving Single Market, Customs Union European Court of Justice

Owen's migration/ internal exile to the Stormont gulag wasn't hugely popular with the locals...

[Tubby Isaacs]

Brexit Means: Leaving Single Market, Customs Union European Court of Justice



The Brexit Department tweeted this out. It seems to show trade picking up in the mid 70s and early 90s.

Obviously the EU and the Single Market must be bad.

[Toby Gymshorts]

Brexit Means: Leaving Single Market, Customs Union European Court of Justice

EDIT: Bollocks to the image function.