The Brexit Thread

[johnr]

I'm just a bit worried that George Osborne, the IoD and the CBI have broadly supported the speech...

[The Awesome Berbaslug!!!]

I think that just a measure of how ideologically extreme and obviously harmful brexit is.

[Tubby Isaacs]

What was that state aid stuff? We spend far less than Germany on it. Why can't we just spend more within the rules, instead of asking for an impossible exemption?

Paul Mason liked that bit, mind. "Neoliberal construct".

[Tubby Isaacs]

Merkel and all aren't expected to fold when these words are put to them.

[The Awesome Berbaslug!!!]

That's one of the problems with UK politics lately. No-one seems interested in trying to achieve their aims through the currently existing rules, in part because no-one wants to do anything and use it as an excuse not to do so, but also because they simply don't know. The entire UK political class strike me as being a bit like a somewhat depressed pensioner who has given up on the outside world, and who refuses to learn how to use their television remote control, and complains about nothing being on. (And even my dad learned how to download boxsets on the Sky Machine, so he could watch Game of Thrones while he was visiting)

[Nefertiti2]

Cake and eat it at this stage makes the government look relatively honest about leaving the Customs Union. They'll tell Labour they have to make up their minds. I wonder if Tory rebels will vote with Labour if aren't clear.

I'd be tempted to abstain as a Labour backbencher until there's a better policy. Defeats of the government probably do look a lot like "thwarting Brexit". They have to be on rock solid policy.

well abstaining would be fucking stupid. the aim is to split the tories and get in to power. propping them up would be criminally irresponsible

[Nefertiti2]

there are a substantial number- lets say 15/20 per cent- of hard right people, egged on by newspapers and the media. one MP has been murdered, corbyn and Kham were targeted by someone else prepared to kill. . You have to move slowly.

[SouthdownRebel]

Nef is right - if hard Brexit is the cliff edge, it’s probably necessary to let people stand and stare right over the edge before they’ll allow themselves to be escorted back to safety. Get a good look at the sharp rocks below.

[Tubby Isaacs]

well abstaining would be fucking stupid. the aim is to split the tories and get in to power. propping them up would be criminally irresponsible

Cake and eat it is deeply irresponsible. It'll be even more of a shock later.

And invoking Jo Cox to support this nonsense is a bit much.

Throwing state aid in now isnt moving in the right direction at all.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Nef is right - if hard Brexit is the cliff edge, it’s probably necessary to let people stand and stare right over the edge before they’ll allow themselves to be escorted back to safety. Get a good look at the sharp rocks below.

At which point I think May blinks and says to her loons "Want to put Corbyn in?" Or she doesn't and she tells Ken Clarke and all "Want to put Corbyn in?"

Neither do.

[Ginger Yellow]

I've seen commentary which suggests state aid isn't going to be much of an issue in practice (eg here). Haven't followed that part of the debate/legislative agenda closely enough to really comment, but it's clearly not as thorny as immigration or the hard border, or separate trade agreements.

[Tubby Isaacs]

The UK can't have any concessions others don't have though, surely? Would be unfair.

[Ginger Yellow]

The idea is that Corbyn's objections could basically be addressed through clarification/specific interpretations of existing rules, or at worst, modest changes to the state aid framework (which would apply to all member states). No carve-out would be needed.

It seems to me there's pretty decent support for this, given what other countries get away with in terms of propping up "local champions".

[Tubby Isaacs]

It doesn't sound like he really went there in the speech with the existing rules.

But he has acknowledged that there are plans in the EU works to change agency/posted workers (not clear which exactly), and it seems this would satisfy what he calls "easy movement". What if it gets stalled though? We don't exactly have a lot of time. Does that mean he couldn't support Single Market membership?

[The Awesome Berbaslug!!!]

I would love to know what he thinks is more important than the ending of the UK's entire export services sector.

[Moonlight Shadow]

The problem for a softer version of Brexit is that it will leave a substantial chunk of the population, possibly around 30% of it, up to 70ish MPS and 3 influential newspapers utterly angry and they will not let go of it. Any downturns will be attributed to Brexit not being hard enough and how a pure version of it was the only way forward. This is why the temptation of allowing a damaging no deal Brexit is tempting, to absolutely prove to all but the zealots what a dreaful idea those people and entities have been pushing. Then politicians might stop being afraid of the consequences and the rebuild can begin, with those voices confined to the backpages of the Daily Mail and crazies corners on the internet.

[Ginger Yellow]

The only downside being that the country is fucked for the next 20 years.

[The Awesome Berbaslug!!!]

So an analysis of Brexit twitter. Guess what they found.....

[MsD]

That's very interesting.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Red Hot Squirrel is just a nasty clown, not a Russian bot?

[Moonlight Shadow]

The country is fucked anyway, those loons will see to it if anything but their vision is implemented and there will be a hit however soft Brexit is which will anger people even more.

Give it 5 years after their vision of Brexit and the likes of Johnson or Rees-Mogg won't be seen in public without a large security detail.

[DCI Harry Batt]

Making things shit just makes things shit. It doesn't have any positive effects.

[The Awesome Berbaslug!!!]

Most Brexit Voters are more likely to burn down a kebab shop in response, rather than admit that they were completely and utterly wrong about something.

[Bizarre Löw Triangle]

So an analysis of Brexit twitter. Guess what they found.....

That is, umm, extremely dubious to say the least. The thread about the "previously identified Russian troll" based this entirely on the fact he posted mainly between 4am and 4pm (cos bored shift workers are Kremlin agitprop agents) and had 8 digits in his @ handle. And like unless the Kremlin have strong views on a female Doctor Who it seems like a stretch to label him Kremlin Agitprop.

The "russian bots" they've identified this time around are exposed by umm the fact they're tweeting round the clock. It seems kind of curious that two very disparate patterns of behaviour deemed to be evidence of the same thing. Almost like it's confirmation bias or something.

The one account they've found that is a Russian bot is has about 900 mostly bot followers and mainly tweets Russian casino adverts at the moment, while also auto-tweeting stories (in English) from loads of news orgs. It seems plausible the account was doing the exact same thing during Brexit (I can't be arsed checking) but since they've only pulled up a search for the word "Brexit" it only returns English responses.

All extremely thin stuff.

[SouthdownRebel]

At which point I think May blinks and says to her loons "Want to put Corbyn in?" Or she doesn't and she tells Ken Clarke and all "Want to put Corbyn in?"

Neither do.

That’s a possibility, assuming they make it that far without imploding, but equally May could blink in that way tomorrow if she is desperate enough. I don’t think there’s a risk-free strategy here for Labour so the timing becomes really important.