The Brexit Thread

[NHH]

I think that's absolutely the case Nef. For many, the disconnect between the hopes invested in Blair and the reality was managed by casting Blair out; some people went on a journey to the Lib Dems and thence UKIP and Brexit, others doubled down on Blairism, reasoning that since the Messiah willed it, all was for the best in this best of all possible worlds. That hangover remains now; I'd be willing to bet that a large part of the people for whom remain has come to be the defining element of their political ambitions were ardent Blairites.

[Tubby Isaacs]

That last bit's definitely true of some people- Chris Leslie is the most obvious MP, plus the media Blairites. Otherwise, it seems to be MPs with strongly Remain voting areas in cities and college towns, plus a few in Wales. New Labour MPs are less pro-Single Market than the new, Corbyn-supporting members.

It's a good situation for Corbyn, I think, in that people who would cause trouble anyway are right about something.

[NHH]

I'm thinking more of yer actual citizenry who go on the pro-EU marches and the like

[Tubby Isaacs]

Ah, right. Didn't know there were that many Blairites still about.

I think for lots of them it's a culture war, just like for Brexiters. Labour doesn't want to be putting itself on the wrong side of that.

[Tubby Isaacs]

http://www.swindonadvertiser.co.uk/n..._to_EU_market/

Story on Honda from where they have a big factory.

Spectacular ignorance abounds. If only somebody was telling them the truth.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Sam Lowe
@SamuelMarcLowe
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If you're suggesting the example of the Canada-US border offers a viable solution to the NI-Ireland Brexit border issue you really need to get a grip.

@MarcusFysh
Replying to @SamuelMarcLowe
Ya da ya da gravity ya da ya da meaningless graphs, supposition and cod economics ya da ya da ya

Marcus Fysh is Conservative MP for Yeovil.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Who could have seen this one coming?

You drive away migrant workers from an affluent area, and nobody else steps up to the plate.

Up to 200 seasonal jobs have gone at Haygrove’s farm in Ledbury, Herefordshire, and some of the company’s raspberry and blueberry-growing will be relocated to Yunnan province in China because of uncertainty over migrant labour due to Brexit.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics...it-uncertainty

Estimated constituency vote for Brexit- 60.4%

[Satchmo Distel]

That's why Labour needs to lie low. Brexit will collapse on its own contradictions and the electoral politics will follow that without needing to force it.

[Tubby Isaacs]

The Labour Party can't say anything about 200 jobs going?

[Nefertiti2]

I Agree with Satchmo. It's important that Labour doesn't lead votes on this but follows. People have to have a real recognition of what Brexit involves, and who is driving it and why. And the disaster the Tories have created for their own entirely selfish reasons. yes the Labout Party can and should say something about jobs going in Ledbury. but they should only talk about specifics.

[Antepli Ejderha]

Do we honestly believe that the Tories won't drive us of the Brexit cliff just too spite some in their party or to out kip the kippers?

At some point someone has got to stop this nonsense but part of me, the masochistic part obviously, wants Brexit to happen just so we can see how bad it really is and show those ignorant fucks what it really is that they voted for.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Shall we call a truce on this, Nef? I do keep coming back to the same point, and you've replied plenty of times.

Agriculture's got an interesting dynamic. Mark Reckless of all people came out in favour of the Single Market for Welsh farmers after the Referendum. It looks like a really glaring problem. Not for Ledbury's (North Herefordshire) MP. He's got a nice 21,000 majority.

[Nefertiti2]

Hi Tubby. I wouldn't necessarily call it a truce. I don't think we disagree that much. I presume we'd both prefer that a) Britain had a Labour Government and b) stayed in the EU. We're talking about tactics. How do we make that happen.

I think if Corbyn were to oppose Brexit, or call to stay in the Single Market, I don't that would make either of those two outcomes more likely. I think Britain wll stay inthe EU if a decisive number of voters oppose it. Not 52 percent. I think about 60 or 65 percent will be necessary. And I think it will only be possible through a labour government , which has shown that it is ready to deliver on the other key issues - housing education, health, wages, transport, and so on.

I think the Tories have to implode. I think, despite the very best efforts of the media it's closer than we think. They've not been able to take adecision for eighteen months despite getting rushed into triggering Article 50 insanely early as anyone who was serious about actually leaving the EU as opposed to posturing and showboating could tell them- and did, frequently, over and over again.. Just today there's astory that Johnson Gove and Fox have threatened to vote down a May proposal to stay close to the EU for goods, (like cars so they can deal with some of the border and supply chain issue) , but not for services. They are also trying to present the EU as split. I

And when it happens the Labour party wIll need to seize the moment united and with very clear and detailed plans and agreements in place. until then Labout just needs to keep chipping aways at the job losses and all the other ever more visible effects of Brexit, whilst continually reminding the country of the Tory greed, intransigence, arrogance and stupidity that's the cause.

[San Bernardhinault]

I know I keep coming back to how it's bad strategy, but the current Labour "argument" also seems to me that the argument seems to be positively Blairite. The idea that "We need to win power" because we're the only ones who can change things, without stating what we want to do, to the extent that winning power becomes overarching, and people stop trying to win arguments, or actually do what's right, is all very reminiscent of the 90s. We won't argue against Brexit, but we'll be marginally less Brexity than the Tories. Replace Brexit with Free Market Wankers and Militaristic Cunts, and you basically have Tony Blair and Gordon Brown in the mid to late 90s.

We won't be in the EU under the current Corbyn argument. We won't be in the Single Market. We won't even be in the Customs Union. Arguing for those might piss off whatever Racist Worcester Woman or Mondeo Man is the current target. We certainly won't have free movement, and we're too scared to even mention it, let alone argue that it might be a good thing, because it's going to scare off the people who might, on the margins, vote for us next time.

"But", the argument seems to go, "Trust us". It sounds desperately Blairish to me.

[Nefertiti2]

Labout is being very clear about a lot of its politics. The only place that it's not is brexit. And brexit is about power and possibility. It will be about negotiating the best deal possible and selling it to the voters. I have complete confidence in Labour to do that better than the Tories, if they are in government. They're not split, or in hock to Paul Dacre and Rupert Murdoch. But they have to be in government. How will saying they would stay in the single market (say) get a general election? I'm sure if they thought it would lead to an election, they would say that. but remember that the crazy Lib dem fixed parliament rules means that even a no confidence motion doesn'r necessarily lead to an election. I think waiting and seeing and appearing to be more rational than the Tories (and better managers ) and playing chicken with the CBI and the remaining financially sane members of the Conservative Party to see when they grab the wheel as the Brexit loons drive the country over the cliff is the only way an election might happen-

[Tubby Isaacs]

Yeah. we both want Labour and in the Single Market, Nef, we do agree on that.

[San Bernardhinault]

I understand the argument and strategy. I just don't think it's a good one. The difference being, I imagine, that I think Brexit (or stopping it) leads everything else in importance, that there is no rebuilding of the welfare state or NHS or workers rights or anything else if the economy is a total post-Brexit clusterfuck. I believe that there's little value in Labour winning power in a hardish Brexit Britain, because we'll be so fucked there's nothing any government could do to sort it out. It is absolutely and utterly the dominant important issue for Britain right now. Everything else pales into relative insignificance.

[The Awesome Berbaslug!!!]

http://www.swindonadvertiser.co.uk/n..._to_EU_market/

Story on Honda from where they have a big factory.

Spectacular ignorance abounds. If only somebody was telling them the truth.

The thing about Labour saying nothing, is that things like this story get ignored. the Japanese Ambassador basically said that if the uk leaves the customs union, all japanese investment will leave, and that it will effectively be impossible to carry out modern manufacturing in the UK. you can't wait for people to suddenly realise that leaving the single market and customs union are going to devastate the UK economy. The EU keeps making it clear that the only arrangement that produces similar outcomes to the Customs union is the fucking customs union.

The EU, the big banks, Manufacturing industry, the Irish govt, the French govt, the German govt, they have all been saying this, and it has no effect. it's all just meaningless noise outside the Westminster bubble. Someone inside the fucking bubble has to say it out loud. Just tell the fucking truth about the fucking nightmare May is walking us all into. The Truth has to come out and be said out loud, to put pressure on the Tories. The only reason that the tories are able to come together is that they can all cling onto the lie that a positive trade deal can be achieved.

Tubby mentioned above that some people are aware of the Northern Ireland issue, but I get very little sense that people understand that if Northern Ireland isn't in the single market when the UK leaves, then you're staring straight down the barrel of a worst case scenario, chaotic ultra hard brexit, and a relationship with the EU that can best be described as antagonistic and openly hostile.

[Nefertiti2]

I understand the argument and strategy. I just don't think it's a good one. The difference being, I imagine, that I think Brexit (or stopping it) leads everything else in importance, that there is no rebuilding of the welfare state or NHS or workers rights or anything else if the economy is a total post-Brexit clusterfuck. I believe that there's little value in Labour winning power in a hardish Brexit Britain, because we'll be so fucked there's nothing any government could do to sort it out. It is absolutely and utterly the dominant important issue for Britain right now. Everything else pales into relative insignificance.

But how do Labour stop Brexit? They aren't the government. Them saying it should be stopped won't stop it.
And to be fair berba, it took a very long time for manufacturing industry and the Japanese to say clearly what brexit means. If Labour say it before the country believes it there'sa very good chance that they will be shot as the messenger bringing bad news. The traitors siding with Europe against Britain. To do anything Labour needs power. And that means the Tories facing up to what their leadership is doing.

[Tubby Isaacs]

The Times doubts that the Home Office will be able to deliver the immigration system May wants in time.

If I understand correctly she's pushing hard for her system in negotiations now.

Says it all.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Nef, I think the Japanese were assured we weren't doing Hard Brexit. They've clocked now what's happening.

[San Bernardhinault]

Labour aren't going to stop Brexit by waiting 3 years until an election which happens at the end of a transition period, 2 years after Britain has already left. They're never going to change the narrative around Brexit if they don't talk about it. Even though it appears that a majority of MPs want a moderate or no Brexit, if there's nobody in the Westminster bubble, nobody appearing on Andrew Marr or Question Time, mentioning the stuff Berba comments on on this page, then how is the conversation about staying in the Customs Union going to start? Are we just pinning our hopes on Ken Clarke and Phil Hammond? How desperately sad is that?

[Tubby Isaacs]

'I won't butt out': His name has been smeared and his motives denounced but billionaire financier GEORGE SOROS tells why his love for Britain means he'll fight on to oppose Brexit

In the Mail on Sunday today. I'm not joking.

[Tubby Isaacs]

As above.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Be fair, I thought this bloke only did yadda yadda yadda. But he's got serious mode too.

Marcus Fysh MPVerified account
@MarcusFysh
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Just completely shocking ignorance or pretence and obfuscation by Labour MPs and Cabinet members on the most basic issues of policy around #Brexit and #trade @DanielJHannan owned #bbcsp

Yeah, that'll work, take Daniel Hannan as your expert on the issues.

And I think you didn't mean to slag off the Cabinet there, did you?

Fysh said earlier that only 3% of trucks got stopped at the US-Canada border.