The Brexit Thread

[hobbes]

Brexit Means: Leaving Single Market, Customs Union European Court of Justice

Presumably that means 40% of them wouldn't? Which is surprising given that Brexit (how I hate that word) is essentially the manifestation of the worst of English nationalism and exceptionalism.

[anton pulisov]

Brexit Means: Leaving Single Market, Customs Union European Court of Justice

The EU long game is probably to have the UK exit on WTO terms, let them suffer, and have them begging to rejoin in 10 years, but this time make them join Schengen and the Euro.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Brexit Means: Leaving Single Market, Customs Union European Court of Justice

Having the UK in some version of the EEA, with no say over the rules, in a long term decline, is perfectly long term, with much less hassle. The issue is whether the UK is stupid enough to turn it down for something worse.

Some sense from Blair today. Labour needs to get together the claims made in the referendum and judge Brexit by what was promised. It really shouldn't be very difficult at all.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Brexit Means: Leaving Single Market, Customs Union European Court of Justice

hobbes wrote: Presumably that means 40% of them wouldn't? Which is surprising given that Brexit (how I hate that word) is essentially the manifestation of the worst of English nationalism and exceptionalism.

Don't forget Wales' role in the infamy.

Like you, I'm surprised it's as high as 40%.

[Flynnie]

Brexit Means: Leaving Single Market, Customs Union European Court of Justice

antoine polus wrote: The EU long game is probably to have the UK exit on WTO terms, let them suffer, and have them begging to rejoin in 10 years, but this time make them join Schengen and the Euro.

Where do I sign up?

[Ginger Yellow]

Brexit Means: Leaving Single Market, Customs Union European Court of Justice

Having the UK in some version of the EEA, with no say over the rules, in a long term decline, is perfectly long term, with much less hassle. The issue is whether the UK is stupid enough to turn it down for something worse.

It's about the only clear red line the government has. They won't accept ECJ jurisdiction over any future arrangement, and it's hard to see how you accommodate that in even an EEA-lite type arrangement without freedom of movement.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Brexit Means: Leaving Single Market, Customs Union European Court of Justice

Freedom of movement is the only red line that counts. Excuses will be made about the ECJ.

[Diable Rouge]

Brexit Means: Leaving Single Market, Customs Union European Court of Justice

Article 50 Day will be the 29th of March, and given next Monday's Stormont deadline, it would seem the North's politicians will be into a third election campaign by that date.

[ad hoc]

Brexit Means: Leaving Single Market, Customs Union European Court of Justice

https://twitter.com/TechnicallyRon/status/843812644729638912Updated wikipedia page. I'd say that just about captures it

[Geoffrey de Ste. Croix]

Brexit Means: Leaving Single Market, Customs Union European Court of Justice

Donald Tusk announcing that within 48 hours of the article being triggered, he will present the draft Brexit guidelines to the member states.

You just know that the EU has been quietly planning. Tick tock, tick tock, tick tock.

[Flynnie]

Brexit Means: Leaving Single Market, Customs Union European Court of Justice

ad hoc wrote: https://twitter.com/TechnicallyRon/status/843812644729638912Updated wikipedia page. I'd say that just about captures it

I find it pretty staggering that the UK has literally not thought of what might happen of things go belly up. That factoid coming out under practically any other government would indicate that it's all a charade, we'll probably negotiate some kind of EFTA-type arrangement, but this government is actually that stupid.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Brexit Means: Leaving Single Market, Customs Union European Court of Justice

The fact they haven't done any work encourages me they'll be shocked into eating some humble pie, starting after the local elections.

[Sean of the Shed]

Brexit Means: Leaving Single Market, Customs Union European Court of Justice

Pessimistic and skewed. This is how a more reserved British MP describes coverage that they don't agree with as FAKE NEWS!

[ursus arctos]

Brexit Means: Leaving Single Market, Customs Union European Court of Justice

Good piece by the increasingly essential Alberto Nardelli on the EU response

[The Awesome Berbaslug!!!]

Brexit Means: Leaving Single Market, Customs Union European Court of Justice

So 88% of english people want free trade with the EU, but 69% want more customs checks.

I think that this article highlights the problem with thinking with your gut. Your gut is a long tube filled with bacteria that turns digested stomach contents into piss and shit. If you use it for thinking, well.....

[Fussbudget]

Brexit Means: Leaving Single Market, Customs Union European Court of Justice

The Awesome Berbaslug!!! wrote: So 88% of english people want free trade with the EU, but 69% want more customs checks.

Ding!

[San Bernardhinault]

Brexit Means: Leaving Single Market, Customs Union European Court of Justice

If that's what the public want, that's what the public should get. At least 57% of the public want free trade with customs checks. A clear majority of the British public. If Teresa May, David Davis, Liam Fox and Boris Johnson fail to get that in negotiations, I think it's only reasonable that they should be put in the stocks.

[Ginger Yellow]

Brexit Means: Leaving Single Market, Customs Union European Court of Justice

The anti-Brexit march highlighted in that article is news to me. Is the attendance expected to be big?

[Tubby Isaacs]

Brexit Means: Leaving Single Market, Customs Union European Court of Justice

Let's look at the poll that didn't fit with Berba's "somewhat blinkered worldview".

[Amor de Cosmos]

Brexit Means: Leaving Single Market, Customs Union European Court of Justice

'Soft Brexit,' as described in that chart, is basically the status quo isn't it? Or am I missing something?

[Diable Rouge]

Brexit Means: Leaving Single Market, Customs Union European Court of Justice

Well, EEA membership, so similar to Norway and Iceland.

[The Awesome Berbaslug!!!]

Brexit Means: Leaving Single Market, Customs Union European Court of Justice

So..... when brexiteers are telling us that the UK's economy is too big for the EU not to want a trade deal, it never occurs to them that the EU can deal with that by just taking all their stuff, and making the UK economy so small that they won't care, .

[Tubby Isaacs]

Brexit Means: Leaving Single Market, Customs Union European Court of Justice

Watch for backpedalling after the Local Elections.

By a happy coincidence, the French Elections are happening about the same time, so there won't be too much going on anyway in the negotiations.

[The Awesome Berbaslug!!!]

Brexit Means: Leaving Single Market, Customs Union European Court of Justice

It will be a very soft brexit indeed that prevents that airlines move. The EU free market in aviation is one of those few areas of commercial activity that functions on the principle that an armed society is a polite society. Govts are competitive about aviation in a way that the car industry can only dream of. Any slip by the UK is going to be pounced on by the rest of Europe. If they can make frankfurt and Paris and Madrid bigger hubs by cutting the UK down to size, you can be sure that it will happen.

[evilC]

Brexit Means: Leaving Single Market, Customs Union European Court of Justice

This brief article is quite good...and very funny, if correct!