The Brexit Thread

[Tubby Isaacs]

Oh fucking fuck.

David Goodhart @David_Goodhart
Glad to see that chief Brexit negotiator @DavidDavisMP is reading The Road to Somewhere according to @POLITICOEurope profile, interesting section on the EU!

Reading a brief might be a better idea.

[NHH]

David Goodhart - a stupid politician's idea of an intellectual

[Tubby Isaacs]

And a "liberal mugged by reality".

[Lang Spoon]

Let’s just say racist, it’s quicker.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Did you see Jonathan Portes' review of Goodhart? Great sounding bit where some Muslims convert a long-disused building into a mosque. And it's bad because.

[Toby Gymshorts]

Because Muslims, obvs.

(I know you know)

[Lang Spoon]

That’s like when Catalans would start freaking out about calls to prayer and minarets back about two decades ago. Think the only functioning mosque with a minaret in “Spain” is this massive fuck off thing in Gibraltar. Though it’s hidden on the far side of the rock well away from Spain’s affronted gaze. It was about protecting and respecting traditions blah blah, not xenophobia and bigotry at all.

Now we have ex liberal think piece fucks spoutng shite like Jordi fucking Pujol and his wife.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Mosques without minarets are worse. They're stealth mosques.

[Gerontophile]

Inmosquito?

Oh, that's poor.

[Benjm]

While today's Guardian leads on there being no sweetheart deal on offer for financial services, the Sun takes an allegorical approach with the leaky aircraft carrier. I'm surprised that they didn't think twice about that, the nay saying traitors.

[Tubby Isaacs]

This is interesting in the way the Ivan Rogers piece/speech was interesting, on real difficulties with the EU that the UK had, and UK successes Cameron chose to leave unsung.

https://www.politico.eu/article/why-...david-cameron/

But like the other piece too much Cameron as statesman stuff, where "the xenophobic press" are like bad weather, rather than part of his core alliance.

[Tubby Isaacs]

To be sure, it would certainly have been extraordinary if we did win. Britain has a long history of Euroskepticism, and these are populist times, in which voters are ready to reject the status quo. It also has to be said that we faced an extraordinarily hostile media. Team Cameron was used to having the main broadsheets and key tabloids on its side.

Innit.

[Ginger Yellow]

This trend reached its apotheosis with the application of the concept of Spitzenkandidaten for the position of European Commission president. According to this idea — not mentioned in the EU treaties and dreamt up by federalists like European Parliament President Martin Schulz — the president would be selected by the political group that won the most seats in the European parliamentary elections. What had traditionally been an appointment by Europe’s elected leaders and approved by Parliament became the choice, in large part, of a legislature seen in most European countries, quite rightly, as less legitimate than national institutions.

As a result of changes like this one, the main impression of the EU across the Continent was of an enterprise no longer delivering for Europeans. A survey of 10,000 Europeans across 10 countries by Pew Research earlier this year found that a majority of people felt unfavorably towards the EU in Greece (71 percent) and France (61 percent). The EU was seen more unfavorably in Spain (49 percent) than in the U.K. (48 percent). A popular cause Europe was not.

Pretty sure this had fuck all to do with Spitzkenkandidaten and everything to do with the response to the Eurozone crisis and astronomical unemployment in Greece and Spain..

[Tubby Isaacs]

Yeah.

And why make such a fuss about Juncker anyway, however he was selected? Clever Mr Cameron took his MEPs out of the EPP, and lost his say over who the candidate would be.

[E10 Rifle]

Another big EU wrangle looms

[Diable Rouge]

Aye, there's a fair amount of wishful thinking linked to the Foundation Myth thing.

I listen regularly to a politics panel show on RTE presented by Claire Byrne. Recently they presented a poll suggesting that 70% of the public in the South would support a single all-Ireland football team (as opposed to the two competing squads of largely English ringers). Of course the clear if unstated sub-text is 'if the NI fans want it' as EWN suggests, because otherwise it's just crude bias. But as anyone who asks them/ us knows, there's basically 0% GAWA support. So the Southern voters would rather be exposed as ignorant rather than prejudiced- on this issue they can be both but not neither.

In a recent BBC interview, Varadkar hinted pretty strongly that a UI following a referendum would need similar support to the 1998 deal in NI, ie about 70% rather than 50% +1. DUP hacks probably don't dislike him as much as they pretend.

For 60 years to 1998 the South formally claimed that NI was already part of their country, and as the example above shows such attitudes persist. Even though the border hasn't moved a metric mile (or even inch) away from Puckoon since the 1920s. It has always suited the 2 main Dublin parties to institutionalise partition in reality, whatever they say at election time.

Apart from SF, none of the parties here expect any change until there's a nationalist majority in Stormont, so a good 10-15 years from now.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Brexit: Michael Gove 'warns colleagues to avoid re-run of project fear'

Yeah, I mean why would anybody think the same warnings are still valid?

https://www.theguardian.com/politics...-tells-cabinet

[The Awesome Berbaslug!!!]

AH- to save you reading back, Berba accused me/ wider Ulster Unionism (which he seems to think I represent) of a bias similar to ISIS. I know the bar's low and almost anything he says that isn't about mourinho will sound reasonably sensible by comparison but hey. Don't take my word for it that pretty much all non-Nationalist opinion in NI is fed up with SF's antics: you an read it in the papers like I do. That's really all this tangent is about.

What I said was that only someone from an ulster protestant background would say that Sinn fein were looking for an irish language act to wind up unionists. Because the idea that a group engages in self expression primarily to wind up another sector of society, is nuts, and for such an idea to be unremarkable and culturally normal is virtually unique (certainly to in europe) to one particular community in one corner of Northern Ireland. And Isis. Though in fairness I could also have said Settlers in israel, or the bible belt in the south. (Though to a substantial degree the Bible belt is just portadown in a swamp)

I'm not suggesting that you're going to start throwing gay people off buildings, just that for a second there, despite all of your best intentions, your ancestral sash was showing.

That Eamon Delaney article is the sort of bollocks you get from someone who writes in the sunday Independent and the Daily Mail. Maybe part of the reason that the Irish govt wasn't trying to bring the DUP along is because the DUP refuse to talk to them. Also the DUP are not amenable to reason, when it comes to brexit, or basically anything. As for the Good Friday agreement, talk of its demise are perhaps premature. It's in our constitution, and it's in what passes for the UK constitution. it's the means by which we're going to keep you in the customs union, and the single market, so I don't see it going anywhere. The thing is that it contains provisions to prevent either side from collapsing the institutions. If you collapse the institutions you're supposed to get something you like less. If the Nationalists were taking the piss, things would revert to direct rule from London, with a limited role for the republic. If the Unionists were to collapse the institutions, then it's direct rule from london, with substantial input from Dublin, with people from Dublin crawling all over the internal operations of Northern Ireland, and once you let them in, they're not going to be leaving and it will become the new normal. a revived Assembly would be an assembly with a lot more involvement for Dublin.

Simon Coveney was talking about that yesterday, pointing out that he wasn't really keen on it because it would cause tensions, and would rather that the parties took the hint, but that's the next step. But that's really the issue. In order for the DUP to avoid a much greater role for dublin, or Direct rule under Jeremy Corbyn, they have to climb down on a number of fronts, and the DUP are built on the idea of never climbing down, or giving in. They need to have this idea that they can get whatever they want by being appalling at all times needs to be beaten out of them by the UK govt. If Northern Ireland is going to have any fucking medium term future, We've reached the point where we have to stop mollycoddling the Unionists, and protecting them from the consequences of their appalling behaviour, and refusal to share power. You're never going to get anywhere with a group of fuckers if you continuously reward them for their terrible, negative behaviour.

The Good Friday agreement is the only show in town, and given that it contains a legal means to end northern Ireland, the onus on the DUP if they want to defend the union, is to create a Northern Irish society that everyone is happy to be part of, so they don't ever get around to holding a border poll. That has two parts. The first is not going out of your way to irritate nationalists, and making them feel like they have an equal stake in the state they living in. The Second is not pissing off a large number of nominal protestants, either economically, or by politically excluding them, to the point where they decide they'd be better off in the republic. The Third crucial part, which is entirely outside their control, is that the UK Govt doesn't blow itself up, with northern Ireland with it.

This is what the DUP would do if they had any sense, but at every opportunity they are doing everything they can to bring forward a border poll. They need to be encouraged to stop. They should listen carefully to what Varadkar and Coveney are saying. The Other day Leo said this

“I would hope that some of the people who supported Brexit and campaigned for it would realize, or at least acknowledge, that they’re the ones who created this problem and I’m one of the people who is trying to resolve it.”

That link that DR posted the other day highlighted how the Irish Taoiseach goes to Enniskillen for Remembrance Sunday, and Fine Gael are the party of the people who only reluctantly switched from home rule within the Union, to supporting Independence when the UK govt completely shat the bed during the war of independence, and utterly destroyed their credibility. (burning down cork and machine gunning croke park being prime among them) Fine Gael are the party in the Dail that are most sympathetic towards Unionists, and put an ulster presbyterian in charge of the 100 years anniversary of 1916, which wound up being as much about the Somme as the GPO.

What varadkar and Coveney are saying is that even Fine Gael are sick of this shit, and even despite their innate distaste for sinn fein, even the blueshirts know that the DUP are the problem. the question for the DUP is do they realize how perilous their position has become and pull back. Or double down, and hope that this govt lasts forever.

[Lang Spoon]

Today the UK govt used Minsterial Orders to try and thwart Adam Ramsay of the Ferret finding out whose hot money went as the unlawful Brexit donation to the DUP. They are getting the full price for the Westminster accord post phase 1 of Brexit, this really damaging (legally-hastily scrawled legislation/transposition from the different English legal system, without scrutiny to a foreign land is almost without exception shite- politically and morally) semi direct rule by Henry VIII clauses as long as fucking Brokenshire and Eyebrows feel like.

The DUP is corrupt up to its oxters. Maybe doesn’t have the same Community Activist with guns element as the Shinners, but where’s the money coming from? Why did the cash for ash shit drag on so long before Eyebrow’s Dept pulled the policy? Corrupt with their foreign donations, corrupt in their interactions with good stout prod farmers. FF in bowlers and nae mass.

[DCI Harry Batt]

You know when you read a post and think "that's probably interesting, but I'm fucked if I can follow it"?

[Lang Spoon]

Yeah, if that was to me I’m even more fractured and rambling when drunk and starving. C’mon the pizza. Adam Ramsay of online (mostly Scots but also Iraq, Lebanon, the Murky North) investigative website has been trying to find out for more than a year who or what exactly paid for the DUP pro Brexit ad in the GB press before the referendum. Already subject to a massive Electoral Commission Fine. Yet the North still persists in keeping such donations secret. Today WM Govt tried to pull a fast one with Ministerial Orders to keep the Ferret from digging. Despite Strong Advice that this differential in Electoral Law has no security or any other justification now. I think it passed, cos no one gives a fuck. Or knew what they were voting for.

The DUP, they are getting shady Kipper style money, and now WM wants to stop any more stuff getting in the public domain. DUP are a Fianna Fáil that ties up the swings in Sundays. The Unionists know how to extract a price. Until they get thrown under the inevitable Reality Bus. Again.

[The Awesome Berbaslug!!!]

Aye, there's a fair amount of wishful thinking linked to the Foundation Myth thing.

I listen regularly to a politics panel show on RTE presented by Claire Byrne. Recently they presented a poll suggesting that 70% of the public in the South would support a single all-Ireland football team (as opposed to the two competing squads of largely English ringers). Of course the clear if unstated sub-text is 'if the NI fans want it' as EWN suggests, because otherwise it's just crude bias. But as anyone who asks them/ us knows, there's basically 0% GAWA support. So the Southern voters would rather be exposed as ignorant rather than prejudiced- on this issue they can be both but not neither.

In a recent BBC interview, Varadkar hinted pretty strongly that a UI following a referendum would need similar support to the 1998 deal in NI, ie about 70% rather than 50% +1. DUP hacks probably don't dislike him as much as they pretend.

For 60 years to 1998 the South formally claimed that NI was already part of their country, and as the example above shows such attitudes persist. Even though the border hasn't moved a metric mile (or even inch) away from Puckoon since the 1920s. It has always suited the 2 main Dublin parties to institutionalise partition in reality, whatever they say at election time.

I think you misunderstand what that poll implies. it's not a threat. It's not crude bias, it's not a question of ignorance or prejudice, it's an open invitation. It's an extended hand of friendship. We'd quite like to have a united Ireland team, but it's really up to people from Northern Ireland to join in. They way things stand at the moment is that Those who want to, do. Those who don't want to, don't. That's just the way things are, and we already have a Nordie manager. The Thing is that most people in the republic are perfectly happy to support an all ireland Rugby team, which is captained by Rory Best OBE, who is about as Unionist as you can get, and that poll should be seen in that context.

The Idea of some crisis in the North, like a hard border, or a collapse in the british economy leading to a snap border poll won by a narrow margin. I mean what the fuck are we going to do with 10,000 UVF members. What are we going to do with Gregory Fucking Campbell? Having to listen to fucking Mary Lou and Pearse Doherty is like drilling a hole in your own head, having to listen to Jeffrey Donaldson and Nigel Dodds would push a lot of people over the edge.

What the Irish govt are more interested is 25 years time, when the youngest person eligible to vote at the end of the troubles would be retired. when anyone actively involved would be dead. when most people would have been born after the end of the troubles, and sinn Fein would be as far removed from the troubles, as Fianna fail were from the Civil war in the late 1960's. We'll be three generations on from the collapse of religious observance in the north and people are going to struggle to remember what religion grandad was. That's when the Irish govt is going to be interested in a border poll, when no-one cares.

Though there is always the risk that some unionist will read about the Sunk cost fallacy, and will ask the question "Why exactly do we want to be ruled from london rather than Dublin? What is in it for us? They've got jetpacks down south, and we don't even have shoes."

[Nefertiti2]

Peter Geoghegan works for the Ferret. Adam Ramsay works for Open Democracy.

They have pursued the story together but the most recent twist was from Ramsay

[ursus arctos]

Damien Green has resigned.

[Antepli Ejderha]

Damien Green has resigned.

He'd clung on for so long that I thought he'd ridden out the storm. Did something new come to light?