The Brexit Thread

[Diable Rouge]

Interesting poll findings by Opinium:

47% consider the Tories divided, compared with 40% for Labour. 44% of public now view May more negatively, 22% more positively, while a net 9% of Tories now have an improved opinion of the PM. Corbyn's approval has risen 12 points with the general public, and 59% with Labour voters. May's Brexit disapproval rating is a net 15%, while Leavers approve her handling of it by a net 1%.

[Diable Rouge]

Remain takes a 10-point lead over Leave in the latest survey, with most of the shift coming from 2016 non-voters:

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk...mpression=true

[Lang Spoon]

Good god Mathew Syed really is a terrible thing. Of course he can see the positive argument in the spurious sovereignty Brexiteer shite.And the Sky News Review presenter, fuck sake.

[Dav O'Roso]

Has he especially strong views either way though?
Always thought he was OK by Sky's oft contrary standards?
Though not setting the bar very high tbf.

[Lang Spoon]

He was a total prick over the English Women’s team racism case and the FA’s handling thereof.

[Dav O'Roso]

Ok, but most national FAs seem to attract their fair share of idiots, but the fallout from the English one doesn't really concern me. They've always been dinosaurs.
Was more interested in Syed's views on Brexit

[NHH]

Syed is a Sports Editor's idea of what a very intelligent person is, rather than an actual comment and review editor.

[Duncan Gardner]

Interestingly, staunch unionist Newton Emerson has highlighted that NI residents could vote for Irish MEPs by virtue of citizenship - probably only a slim chance that unionists would either stand or vote, but it would certainly boost North-South relations:

https://mobile.twitter.com/NewtonEme...94381827657729

Thanks for that. The whole island as a single constituency makes some sense. FF and FG wouldn't want to give SF all the seats in a NI alone area. Agreed that most Unionists wouldn't take part- although that's most likely as they wouldn't have a passport to use as their effective voting card.

[Dav O'Roso]

Surely their participation depends on whether there's a hard border.
The DUP must have some traction over the Tories still.

[Duncan Gardner]

Disagree. Britain will leave the EU (because the risk of not doing so is too much for both main parties). It'll be largely in name only for reasons in detail above. There'll be a soft border but no EU elections run from Belfast. Yet the DUP cant stop the Southern parties giving NI Irish passport holders a vote, or just claiming to represent them anyway. But Unionists won't take part for the reason I suggested- they'd remain ineligible, even before you consider that NI residents have no idea who most Southern hacks are.

[Dav O'Roso]

Until Brexit happens, would dispute is a done deal.
Even the Brit electorate will feel differently once the economic implications are felt more keenly.
Though conversely no-one can guarantee no hard border either.

As for unionists not voting, what about the thousands who've applied for Irish passports, albeit they could vote FG I suppose.
And even they use the internet...

[Diable Rouge]

While we're on the theme of unionism, an interesting piece by Eamon Delaney - would disagree slightly, in that the DUP has shown little interest in engaging with Dublin either since Stormont collapsed, but both Martin, and Coveney today on RTE, seem keen to repair some of the damage of recent weeks:

https://eamondelaney.wordpress.com/2...ter-unionists/

[Diable Rouge]

Demographic analysis of that BMG poll:

https://mobile.twitter.com/faisalisl...58252179861504

[Tubby Isaacs]

Finally, a positive of the Brexit process. Far more people now know what a poisonous bell end "Lexiter" Paul Embery of the FBU is.

Paul Embery @PaulEmbery

Sorry, I'm not buying into this hysteria over pro-EU MPs receiving death threats. They should get a grip and take some advice from the great Tony Benn:
"I received a death threat last week. I was so thrilled that someone thought I was still dangerous. I hadn't had one in ages."

Understandably, a few MPs who knew Jo Cox are less than thrilled.

Paul's response? He meant specifically MPs getting killed specifically by people who've made threats to them! It's pointed out that people get killed by people who've made threats to them quite often. Yebbut MPs, apparently.

Can't the FBU sort this goon out? What sort of disrepute charges are available? If he wants to work for Spiked, he can do it under somebody else's badge.

[Duncan Gardner]

While we're on the theme of unionism, an interesting piece by Eamon Delaney - would disagree slightly, in that the DUP has shown little interest in engaging with Dublin either since Stormont collapsed, but both Martin, and Coveney today on RTE, seem keen to repair some of the damage of recent weeks:

https://eamondelaney.wordpress.com/2...ter-unionists/

Delaney suggests both the DUP and Southern parties have "violated" the spirit of the GFA. I'd put it a bit differently- the core of the deal was power sharing in a mandatory coalition at Stormont, which has clearly failed and needs to be replaced- maybe voluntary coalition?

Jon Tonge (English academic and DUP expert) suggests FG and FF are only interested in NI because of/ during Brexit- OK a big if but it won't last forever.

Coveney is just pandering to the 4th Green Field Foundation Myth about a United Ireland next year

[Dav O'Roso]

But there will be a UI eventually. Mainly because the Brits don't want the North.

Who can blame them?

[sw2borshch]

Do the RoIers want the North? Like really, if it actually came down to it and that?

[Duncan Gardner]

Yes up to the point where it is more than a remote possibility

[Ek weet nie]

The only way that I would want a United Ireland is if the vast majority of unionists wanted it. Any other scenario is not going to end well.

[anton pulisov]

Exactly, if things are going to kick off in NI as a result of a united Ireland then there's no point. There's relative peace at the moment, so I have no problems with the status quo remaining. Peace is the most important thing. The DUP didn't really consider the status quo when they campaigned for Brexit.

[Duncan Gardner]

The only way that I would want a United Ireland is if the vast majority of unionists wanted it. Any other scenario is not going to end well

Aye, there's a fair amount of wishful thinking linked to the Foundation Myth thing.

I listen regularly to a politics panel show on RTE presented by Claire Byrne. Recently they presented a poll suggesting that 70% of the public in the South would support a single all-Ireland football team (as opposed to the two competing squads of largely English ringers). Of course the clear if unstated sub-text is 'if the NI fans want it' as EWN suggests, because otherwise it's just crude bias. But as anyone who asks them/ us knows, there's basically 0% GAWA support. So the Southern voters would rather be exposed as ignorant rather than prejudiced- on this issue they can be both but not neither.

In a recent BBC interview, Varadkar hinted pretty strongly that a UI following a referendum would need similar support to the 1998 deal in NI, ie about 70% rather than 50% +1. DUP hacks probably don't dislike him as much as they pretend.

For 60 years to 1998 the South formally claimed that NI was already part of their country, and as the example above shows such attitudes persist. Even though the border hasn't moved a metric mile (or even inch) away from Puckoon since the 1920s. It has always suited the 2 main Dublin parties to institutionalise partition in reality, whatever they say at election time.

[Duncan Gardner]

Exactly, if things are going to kick off in NI as a result of a united Ireland then there's no point. There's relative peace at the moment, so I have no problems with the status quo remaining. Peace is the most important thing. The DUP didn't really consider the status quo when they campaigned for Brexit

NI is likely to remain politically volatile for the foreseeable future, ie whatever happens there's a risk of it kicking off.

Hypothetically, NI might be better off economically in a UI than at present, but given that volatility probably less so than other parts of Ireland. Which doesn't make a compelling case to the mass of Unionists.

[Dav O'Roso]

The only way that I would want a United Ireland is if the vast majority of unionists wanted it. Any other scenario is not going to end well.

But when the Brits pull out, there won't be any other choice...
Particularly if they financially sweeten the pill.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Ha ha ha ha.

http://uk.businessinsider.com/iain-d...brexit-2017-12

Form Conservative leader Iain Duncan Smith said business will need to adjust to more difficult trade with the EU.
He acknowledged that new barriers to trade will emerge after Brexit.

That wasn't on the bus, was it?

[Tubby Isaacs]

Matthew Goodwin joining Andrew Neil in the "you wanna see political crises in Europe" stakes.

Netherlands apparently has a crisis too. And all over Europe, there are "huge divisions on refugees".