The Brexit Thread

[Nefertiti2]

Brexit Means: Leaving Single Market, Customs Union European Court of Justice

Has anyone mentioned John Major's speech yet?

“I have watched with growing concern as the British people have been led to expect a future that seems to be unreal and over-optimistic,” . “Obstacles are brushed aside as of no consequence, whilst opportunities are inflated beyond any reasonable expectation of delivery.”

[hobbes]

Brexit Means: Leaving Single Market, Customs Union European Court of Justice

There were a lot of "yesterday's man" attacks on the bottom half of the Guardian about this.
Ironic coming from a bunch of fucking morons trying to take us back to the 1950s.

[anton pulisov]

Brexit Means: Leaving Single Market, Customs Union European Court of Justice

I'm sure that some migrants end up relying on benefits or needing healthcare at various points. But no-one leaves home, and all their family and friends in order to be on the dole in a foreign country.

Of course not, but you only need a few for it to be an issue for morons.

And, it wasn't even an EU issue, it was a case of the UK failing to implement their own laws properly. And who got hammered for it? The EU.

It's bolloxology on so many levels that it's difficult to keep track of.

[Moonlight Shadow]

Brexit Means: Leaving Single Market, Customs Union European Court of Justice

That health insurance clause is vicious. Not so much because of it per se, many countries require that from non contributing residents and I don't particularly have an issue with it. It's how it can be used to deny PR to someone who might have lived here a decade but did not have that cover back then, when it was just an obscure detail that no one knew about and thus made that person essentially illegally here...

There are in fact very strict criterias attached to FOM, the health cover being one of them if not employed, that the British govt ignored for years and would have given them all they needed to control immigration, easier to blame EU in the end and we are where we are...

[Amor de Cosmos]

Brexit Means: Leaving Single Market, Customs Union European Court of Justice

Gamed in Canada

Nothing really unusual there — except the dollar figures perhaps — it just seemed so easy to accomplish.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Brexit Means: Leaving Single Market, Customs Union European Court of Justice

Johnson used his speech to make clear that the government did not see the referendum result as a green light for protectionism.

In the face of Osborne’s warning and calls by the US president, Donald Trump, for more protections, Johnson said his government was pro-trade and pro-globalisation.

No doubt, this was the message loud and clear from Copeland.

It should be the easiest thing for the Opposition to drive a wedge between the people currently supporting Tories and the actual Tory government.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Brexit Means: Leaving Single Market, Customs Union European Court of Justice

We used to think John Major vetoeing "federalist" Jean-Luc Dehane was stupid Kipper populism.

Christ, how much worse things got on that score, under Moderniser Cameron.

Classy effort from Major yesterday. He was good in the referendum too.

[The Awesome Berbaslug!!!]

Brexit Means: Leaving Single Market, Customs Union European Court of Justice

So Someone from Nissan was in chatting to some MPs today and he wasn't very keen on the idea of WTO rules, which would cause them to reconsider the whole thing, and that all investment decisions would be reconsidered when the shape of the brexit deal became clear,.

That should be first item on the news tonight.

[Lang Spoon]

Brexit Means: Leaving Single Market, Customs Union European Court of Justice

I'm sure something Big and International or helpful to May will push it from the top of the News at Ten (I'm assuming no one watches the six o clock news anymore seeing as most plucky Brits will still be working, corralling the kids, cooking or commuting home at that time these days)

[Benjm]

Brexit Means: Leaving Single Market, Customs Union European Court of Justice

BBC News is repeatedly referring to tonight's Lords vote as looking like being the Government's first setback over Brexit. I'd have thought that their first setback was calling and then losing the fucking referendum.

[johnr]

Brexit Means: Leaving Single Market, Customs Union European Court of Justice

Benjm wrote: BBC News is repeatedly referring to tonight's Lords vote as looking like being the Government's first setback over Brexit. I'd have thought that their first setback was calling and then losing the fucking referendum.

Indeed.

Still, the Labour amendment won. It's possible to win some battles.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Brexit Means: Leaving Single Market, Customs Union European Court of Justice

The Awesome Berbaslug!!! wrote: So Someone from Nissan was in chatting to some MPs today and he wasn't very keen on the idea of WTO rules, which would cause them to reconsider the whole thing, and that all investment decisions would be reconsidered when the shape of the brexit deal became clear,.

That should be first item on the news tonight.

It's got competition from 1,100 jobs at serious risk at Ford in Bridgend.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Brexit Means: Leaving Single Market, Customs Union European Court of Justice

Ha ha ha.

Gisela Stuart looking incredibly uncomfortable on the news there when the exit bill is put to her. "Not exactly on the side of the bus, was it?" said Gary Gibbon.

The bus and its big lie could be a serious problem in the future for the Brexit team. May isn't going to get away with saying it wasn't her who said it.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Brexit Means: Leaving Single Market, Customs Union European Court of Justice

Bob Kerslake points out in the debate that we need these EU immigrants.

This is another Blazing Saddles sheriff threat.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Brexit Means: Leaving Single Market, Customs Union European Court of Justice

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/mar/01/lords-defeat-government-over-rights-of-eu-citizens-in-uk-brexit-bill

Government considers the vote for all of 3 hours and says it'll overturn it.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Brexit Means: Leaving Single Market, Customs Union European Court of Justice

Big Len getting stuck into Brexit re the Bridgend job losses. Good man.

Hope he beats Gerald "immigration is for fancy people with gardeners" Coyne.

Now if Len can have a word with Jez...

[Tubby Isaacs]

Brexit Means: Leaving Single Market, Customs Union European Court of Justice

This looks good. Anthony Hilton, who's an old City/business journo.

http://www.standard.co.uk/business/anthony-hilton-disaster-lurks-in-may-s-empty-bluff-on-trade-a3480301.html

There is also a potential problem with the World Trade Organisation. Under its rules, one country cannot give favoured status to another without extending the same favour to everyone else — the most-favoured nation principle — unless it is part of a comprehensive trade treaty. One view is that what the EU granted us would also have to be available to everyone else, so they would not do it.

Lawyers are split on this. Dorothy Livingston, a trade expert and partner at Herbert Smith Freehills, thinks it may not be a problem. She says the 1947 treaty that created the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (fore-runner to the World Trade Organisation) allows for interim arrangements, provided the arrangement will lead to the implementation of a WTO-compliant trade agreement.

But even without this legal challenge, there is a much bigger problem. The UK is a sovereign member of the WTO but applies the tariffs and schedules on goods and services laid down by the EU. These are in effect the baseline for trade with the rest of the world, except where modified by specific trade agreements. Once out, however, Britain would have to register its own schedules of tariffs and services, setting its own baselines.

It has a potential problem because 40 nations have joined the WTO during Britain’s time as a member of the EU — and, from our position within the EU, we have been one of the toughest countries in demanding concessions from them before they were allowed in. They are now forming a queue to kick us back the moment we are on our own.

Before accepting our schedules, South American countries could demand more access for their beef and orange juice; the Chinese want access for their cars, the Americans access to the NHS and so on. The EU will also have to agree, which will be interesting if the talks have been difficult. The point is that, without concessions, the other nations could block the UK schedules, leaving Britain in such limbo it will be unable to deal with anyone.

If the British try simply to adopt the current EU schedules, there is a different problem. These mark out the EU’s position with the rest of the world — for example, a tariff of 10% on cars, one of 12.5% on lamb. So that is what Britain would have — but the schedules would also apply between post-Brexit Britain and the EU.

That means all the supply chains back and forth between Britain and Europe would be subject to tariffs. In cars and aviation, goods go backwards and forwards several times during the manufacturing process. There would be a tariff added with each border crossing. Cross-border supply chains with the EU would become uneconomic overnight.

As a postscript, if Britain tried to lower its tariffs with the EU to overcome the above difficulties, WTO most-favoured nation rules mean it would have to ease them with the rest of the world too — without getting anything in return.

Hardline Brexiteers to whose tune the Prime Minister dances say that if the EU does not give us an interim deal, we will simply use the WTO. The above analysis shows why this would be disastrous, how empty is the Prime Minister’s bluff, and how irresponsible it is to trigger Article 50 while pretending these problems don’t exist.

Does anybody else see our Foreign Aid budget going up?

[Lang Spoon]

Brexit Means: Leaving Single Market, Customs Union European Court of Justice

Tom Devine, Scotland's "Premier Historian" (he's better than say Norman Davies, but fairly obvious and prolix with recent Scottish political history) still thinks Brexit won't happen cos of such complexities.

I think he's mistaking these magical thinkers with Tories of old. This lot really will drive us to tariff frenzy ruin, Cos The People Have Spoken. Developing World living standards are going to spread from the gig economy saps to just about everyone. Argentina with a shit climate.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Brexit Means: Leaving Single Market, Customs Union European Court of Justice

There could be a soft Brexit ambush on at some point. You'd hope an Opposition would want to be part of it.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Brexit Means: Leaving Single Market, Customs Union European Court of Justice

Soubry gets properly stuck into Brexiters in the Mail on Sunday, whose editor is a Remainer unlike Dacre.

Says she'll rebel against the Government on a meaningful vote, if the Lords sends an amendment back. Maybe a few others are going to do the same, having kept their powder dry so far. Not that it'll win. McDonnell will be worried about a Brexit backlash in Manchester Gorton, which Rebecca Long-Bailey said isn't safe.

[Lang Spoon]

Brexit Means: Leaving Single Market, Customs Union European Court of Justice

If there's any truth that one PowerPoint presentation on Brexit disaster has triggered this bullshit pandering policy, McDonnell should be locked in a heated copper room till he gets FPTP Psephology 101. Think Bryan/Antonio posted earlier on the Brexit thread that it doesn't necessarily matter if a majority of cunts in Burnley (sorry Snake) voted Leave, so much as what the Labour vote was up to (and it was voting remain, mostly, even in fabled Burnley). And the good Prof Curtice has recently said much the same thing. Their mealy mouthed bollocks has left the field to Lib Dems and Tory bastards on each side of the fence. And does no good encouraging possible rebels like Soubry. And McDonnell is supposed to be Corbyn's brains. Guess his fabled intellect is as overrated as fucking Cable or Brown. Useless useless bastards.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Brexit Means: Leaving Single Market, Customs Union European Court of Justice

He said he had to do it to stop UKIP winning Stoke. Or to keep Jez in his job, to put it another way.

I'd like to play John McDonnell at Risk, for money.

[johnr]

Brexit Means: Leaving Single Market, Customs Union European Court of Justice

Lang Spoon wrote: If there's any truth that one PowerPoint presentation on Brexit disaster has triggered this bullshit pandering policy,

There isn't.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Brexit Means: Leaving Single Market, Customs Union European Court of Justice

http://uk.businessinsider.com/tory-mps-rebellion-parliament-meaningful-vote-veto-hard-brexit-wto-terms-2017-3

Talk of 20 Tory rebels on a meaningful vote. Could be pushing it, but wouldn't be surprised if Osborne is one. Shit hitting fan (assuming the amendment fails) could be a good push for a leadership bid.

[Guy Profumo]

Brexit Means: Leaving Single Market, Customs Union European Court of Justice

Tubby Isaacs wrote: Some bad mood music from Peugeot/ Vauxhall.

Tory Hard Brexit job cuts on the cards? Or corporate shakedown?

What's Labour's response? Probably "we'll hand out more free money than the Tories, vote for us". At least with Corbyn, that's what he thinks should happen. How the Labour Right (non-London edition) feel about parroting this, God knows. Sod them.

And thus it has come to pass.