The Next War?

[Guy Profumo]

When armoured troops rolled into Poland from Germany in 1939 didn't it lead to World War II?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/video_and_audio/headlines/38603234#video-38603234

[The Awesome Berbaslug!!!]

The Next War?

It's very different if you're being invited.

[ad hoc]

The Next War?

I'm fairly sure the next global war begins in the South China Sea. Soon.

[Guy Profumo]

The Next War?

The Awesome Berbaslug!!! wrote: It's very different if you're being invited.

And next week when the Russians roll in from the East?

All I can say is "come on Finland, pull your neo-Nazi fingers out!"

[linus]

The Next War?

There is no next global war, there has been an ongoing global war in the Ukraine, Yemen and in Syria between Russia and NATO, bringing horrendous level of destruction, death and human suffering since the beginning of this decade (along with great business for arms producers). It's mostly a continuation of 20th century proxy the wars in Korea, Vietnam or Afghanistan 1 on different fronts.

Russia is not going to directly engage in an invasion of Eastern Europe, the current WW3 rolling tanks narrative is just a fallout from US domestic politics in an ongoing hyperbolic PR war between vast swaths of the US/NATO establishment (characters like McCain or Graham, the DNC, the MSM, the CIA and parts of the left), and the Trump team.

Trump setting up a detente with Russia might end up saving hundreds of thousands of lives in Syria for starts, the reconstruction of Aleppo and other cities, and a crushing of Daesh in Syria, the mercenary death cult which has been propped by US/Israeli intelligence, GCC funding and NATO/Turkish logistics. Clinton getting elected would have lead to the status quo in Syria, backchannel logistical and financial support to Daesh and the most evil and least legitimate elements of the opposition to Assad.

[Hot Pepsi]

The Next War?

I don't follow that logic.
Russia/Assad/Iran are going to keep killing people in Syria until there's nobody left to kill. As far as I've read, they're not doing much to help the US-backed effort to wipe out ISIS. They're all about asserting Shiite strength and keeping Assad's murderous regime in power for their mutual benefit.

[San Bernardhinault]

The Next War?

By that logic, there's been a global war going on for at least 500 years as people have been fighting over the world, often in proxy wars thousands of miles away, since at least the beginning of the European Age of Exploration.

Anyway, I agree with ad hoc. The next one is mostly likely to start in the South China Sea, over the Paracel and Spratly Islands. If there's anywhere on the planet I'm scared of, it's that.

[hobbes]

The Next War?

Don't look for logic, chaps. It's Linus. It's just a way to make everything Hillary Clinton's fault.

[Hot Pepsi]

The Next War?

I don't want to be a dick, but from everything I've read, the notion that Daesh is propped-up by the US is Alex Jones-esque bullshit.

I'm not sure how to compare the numbers, but it does seem like the Middle East is basically a giant WWI-style clusterfuck of shifting alliances that usually seem to come down to ethnic ties, Shia vs Sunni, and overwhelming despair and trauma. Oil is the fuel for it all, in more ways than one, but it's not really about that. The global war isn't against Islam. It's very much a war within Islam, and there seem to be more than two sides.

[Lang Spoon]

The Next War?

Indeed. China scares the shit out of me for their manouveres down in the Spratlys etc, and not for Sinophobic yellow peril reasons. They have a really horrible government where corruption within the Party and Army are so endemic a real sweep against corruption will take down huge amounts of the population. Nationalistic bullshit frenzy encouraging seems to be a safety valve against pleb and peasant grumbling. A little war war might be a welcome distraction, till it escalates.

And when/if their investments are threatened in Africa, Latin America, even Australia, the United Fruit/diamond mine bastards Chinese semi state investors will be doing the same old bad things in a new language.

Jesus we are actually going to miss the States as global hegemon after it willfully destroys itself/Trump either provoking China needlessly or pulling out of active support for Japan/Korea/SE Asia.

[Hot Pepsi]

The Next War?

Yep

[Lang Spoon]

The Next War?

Hot Pepsi wrote: Yep

Ah, the Onion. That's a fucking Madeleine moment right there but. Must have spent so much lost time on there and the AV club affiliate about a decade ago back when I was underemployed.

[The Awesome Berbaslug!!!]

The Next War?

Well right now some chinese club is trying to sign Diego costa, and trying to prove that they have a bigger cock than Roman Abramovich. That sort of thing is a terrible sign. If you can't find a better investment in all of china than spending £200 million on West Brom, then what the fuck is going on in China?

I'm not sure if this makes it more or less likely that China is going to engage in small patriotic wars. I don't know if they could afford any disruption to their trade. I don't know how long it would take for sanctions to cause china to collapse utterly. The problem is because of the incredibly opaque nature of much of the chinese economy and the unreliability of any figure coming out of a totalitarian regime, we don't know very much about what is happening in China.

Russia on the other hand is barely integrated into the world economy any more. They've spent fortunes on their agricultural sector so they don't have to import much in the way of dairy and the likes. They don't give a fuck. Their value of their economy has halved in the last three years, but since they're facing sanctions and don't import all that much they're basically living at their usual level of mass misery. The real way to get at russia is to start seizing their money, but the Russians are going to have to be a bit better behaved over the next year or two because that world cup of theirs could start to look shaky.

[Hot Pepsi]

The Next War?

I don't know about West Brom, but with Abromovich and Chelsea, the hypothesis I've read is that he's confident that it will be much harder for any government to prosecute him as the owner of a well-known English football club. Maybe the same with West Brom. Are the buyers shady?

Unlike an NBA team or other US team, a premier league club doesn't seem like a very safe place to stash money. If the team goes down and/or fails to make Europe, there's a lot of potential to lose a lot of money, right?

[The Awesome Berbaslug!!!]

The Next War?

hah, that's my hypothesis. And in order to do that he bought a big club in the city centre of london, and proceeded to spend more money on players than any other club, anywhere, ever, by a substantial factor. But that was easy to do back then, before Qatar and abu dhabi came along to show what oil wealth really was. but it set up Abramovich as a great benefactor, and a major contributor to the national sport, rather than a hyper shady figure who emerged from the collapse of the Soviet union with a fortune worth billions.

buying west brom on the other hand is just good old trophy asset buying, like back in 2006 when irish investors bought basically every famous hotel of long standing in London. It's a really bad sign. like back when the total value of the land under all japanese golf courses was worth more than germany or something equally ridiculous. What happens next is never good.

as to the economics of buying a club, well it kind of depends. If you buy a club that's big enough, you really have to make a horrific mess of things to get relegated like randy lerner, or mike ashley. West Brom are a relatively small club, who have been very well run, and have managed to punch at, or above their weight for a while now. but they are one of many clubs of about the same size that have very small margins for failure. appoint the wrong manager and they could easily get relegated.

The people who own the boston red sox would have made an absolute fortune from buying liverpool. They've put in about £300 million over the five years, and the club has to be worth a substantial multiple of that now. But people like the Venkys who bought blackburn to help promote their chicken business really haven't done very well out of blackburn.

[Muukalainen]

The Next War?

Guy Profumo wrote: And next week when the Russians roll in from the East?

All I can say is "come on Finland, pull your neo-Nazi fingers out!"

Eh? Neo-Nazi? You're referring to the Continuation War?

[The Awesome Berbaslug!!!]

The Next War?

Who knows. I see that finland was one of only two countries where slupport for EU membership fell after brexit. some people aren't thinking to hard about what it means to be living beside russia.

[Muukalainen]

The Next War?

Hardly the point that I was addressing, but anyway figures I've seen for support for our EU membership show it fluctuating post brexit. If I recall correctly, the figures you mentioned elsewhere on this board show support at about 60:40 in favour of continued membership. Very few people living here are under any delusions what it means to have a Putin led Russia as a neighbour. We still have conscription here, it's still taken seriously, and there's only one potential enemy.

[The Awesome Berbaslug!!!]

The Next War?

I'd suggest that 40% of the population haven't linked EU membership with keeping russia from the door.

[Vulgarian Visigoth]

The Next War?

You don't have to be a conspiranoid to see the USA and Russia handwrestling in any international conflict - they do it in the open. It is Cold War 2.0. The USA are still doing what they've been programmed to do by Monroe doctrine, ie being the hegemonic superpower, while Russia tries to cling to past glories under a new flag led by a Cold War cyborg.

[Muukalainen]

The Next War?

EDIT: In reply to AB.

Can't agree with that. While there's certainly a relationship between national security and EU membership, there's also a lot of direct contact with Russia that doesn't involve the EU and many aspects to EU membership that aren't related to keeping the Russians at bay.

[The Awesome Berbaslug!!!]

The Next War?

Perhaps, but the baltic states see it as a big part of their "Stay out of putin's clutches plan." and they've gone the whole hog and joined Nato as well. If anything there's a manic desperation about their efforts to drag their country up to the EU average as quickly as humanly possible.

[ursus arctos]

The Next War?

My guess is that Guy was referring to the True Finns, but one never really knows.

[Guy Profumo]

The Next War?

More to do with "The Winter War" and the Finnish battalion of the Waffen SS

[Muukalainen]

The Next War?

EDIT: Reply to ursus: Ah, I see. Well, in that case there's no need for the neo-.

AB: I'd agree with you regarding the Baltics. Hardly surprising given their history.