Trump's Card

[Flynnie]

Yes of course you're right, the left should eschew the purity politics of scrutinising the actions and statements of elected politicians rather than mindlessly cheerleading for them.



I know it's not a vote of confidence in ICE. But it's still a vote to restore funding to ICE.

That’s why she’s in Congress and you’re posting. Breaking the party whip on HR1, a DHS bill that doesn’t fund the wall, is a good way to land yourself in obscurity when you’re the star freshman of the incoming class.

The fact you’re harping on about this and not her vote (with just two other Dems) against Democratic implemented austerity is excellent evidence of not seeing the forest for the trees.

[Tubby Isaacs]

It's silly for Dems to stop themselves doing what their opponents always do. But was that actually a vote for austerity?

[Flynnie]

It's silly for Dems to stop themselves doing what their opponents always do. But was that actually a vote for austerity?

Paygo? Yes, Paygo is absolutely a vote for austerity. Balanced budgets are a sham. I'm not even talking MMT.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Ah, OK. I was thinking it was balancing the current budget.

[Ginger Yellow]

There is no current budget. Hence the shutdown.

[Ginger Yellow]

Also, I'd note that the paygo rule can be waived as necessary by House Dems, unlike the already existing statute. It's a bad rule, but it's not crippling to fiscal policy in the way that statutory paygo and the debt ceiling are.

[Tubby Isaacs]

There is no current budget. Hence the shutdown.

I mean "current budget" in the sense of spending that isn't capital/investment.

[ad hoc]

I still have no idea how a country that practically fetishises free speech could even consider this. Even with a right wing Supreme Court surely this must be obviously and ludicrously unconstitutional https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry...b0c6616f7ce6d9

[Gerontophile]

[Satchmo Distel]

Will this be the first time since LBJ over Vietnam and Nixon over Watergate that a POTUS has made a personal televised address to purely bolster his own base in support of a dishonest position, using populism to combat congressional opposition?

It's not how you would negotiate with Congress.

[ursus arctos]

Reagan did it, though a number were done by radio.

Among the ones I recall were those pushing "tax reform", the "war on drugs" (with Nancy) and various apologia over Iran-Contra.

[Femme Folle]

I still have no idea how a country that practically fetishises free speech could even consider this. Even with a right wing Supreme Court surely this must be obviously and ludicrously unconstitutional https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry...b0c6616f7ce6d9

It is astounding, and I don't see how it doesn't get challenged in the courts if it passes.

[Satchmo Distel]

It would be fun to see Kavanaugh trying to make an argument that it is constitutional.

[Satchmo Distel]

It seems that Trump is going to play the national emergency card tonight. Logically it should be political suicide but these are strange times. Any predictions on the outcome?

[ursus arctos]

All of the leaks so far today is that he is NOT going to declare an emergency

[Satchmo Distel]

All of the leaks so far today is that he is NOT going to declare an emergency

OK, that's my bad for relying on Twitter

[ursus arctos]

It is of course possible that he will, but there is a pretty strong legal consensus that he would get slapped down by the first District Court anyone filed in (drafts have been prepared) in much the same way as he was on Travel Ban 1.0. I’m not at all sure that they want their basis for any decision to be subject to judicial review. There’s also a lot of chatter that GOP Senators have told him that it would be bad politics.

it is hard for me to see it being anything other than a shitshow

[Satchmo Distel]

He was definitely floating some trial balloons, sending out Lewandowski and Sanders with talking points to defend property grabs and other overreaches (Lewandowski compared it on MSNBC to building freeways).

[San Bernardhinault]

It is of course possible that he will, but there is a pretty strong legal consensus that he would get slapped down by the first District Court anyone filed in (drafts have been prepared) in much the same way as he was on Travel Ban 1.0. I’m not at all sure that they want their basis for any decision to be subject to judicial review. There’s also a lot of chatter that GOP Senators have told him that it would be bad politics.

it is hard for me to see it being anything other than a shitshow

I'd guessed that he'd declare "National Emergency", allow the Senate to vote for a nice long continuing resolution, then get slapped down in the courts. That would mean they'd get out of the shutdown bind, and be able to blame it on the courts rather themselves.

[ursus arctos]

They don’t need an emergency for Eminent Domain, but it would be hilarious for them to try that on a bunch of Texas ranchers.

[San Bernardhinault]

They need an emergency to artificially create the fake impression of "funding for the wall" for a long enough gap for a budget to get passed.

At that point the funding can disappear again, but Trump hasn't "caved" to the Democrats.

[ursus arctos]

They controlled all three branches for two years. The only thing that has happened is that they have lost control of the House.

[Satchmo Distel]

Trump could be damaged by having hyped up a state of emergency only to have been forced to back down from it. Makes him look weak with Fox and chums, ultimately.

[San Bernardhinault]

Paul Manafort was a naughty boy not just before the Trump campaign but during the Trump campaign, and in contact with Russian spies, and in relation to Trump Campaign material.

We know this because Paul Manafort's lawyers seem to be utterly incompetent and unable to properly redact content in a court filing.

[anton pulisov]

Not Nate Silver's biggest fan. But this one is good.

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1082777389460004864?s=19