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    Originally posted by ursus arctos View Post
    I'd also question just how much impact it would have on the mid-terms in Wisconsin either way.
    Maybe not Wisconsin particularly, but it sounds like it could be something Trump can use to get his trade meme going again.

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      Originally posted by Amor de Cosmos View Post
      Too early to say. I think the dairy concession was expected and, frankly, pretty hard to make a case for even within Canada. The dispute settlement is a different matter. Canada wants an impartial arbiter to any and all disputes. The US wanted such disputes settled in US courts. The latter is obviously unacceptable, but how far they'll move away from it remains to be seen.
      That's an "ISDS" sort of thing? If so, it's interesting that it was part of the solution here. This stuff was hugely unpopular in Europe in negotiating TPIP.

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        I think ISDS is Chapter 11. Chapter 19 is mainly anti-dumping legislation, but I guess they're similar.

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          Has this been posted?

          Anyway if so fuck it-just watch it again

          - https://twitter.com/samuelljackson/status/1045815031928160256

          Samuel L’s follow up tweet is a doozy too

          https://twitter.com/samuelljackson/status/1045846812941316101

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            Meanwhile

            https://twitter.com/emmersbrown/status/1046534575072194560

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              https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1046369067035054082

              https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/sta...69067035054082

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                This analysis is good IMO -in US and UK.

                https://twitter.com/profkeithdevlin/status/1046545779123400704

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                  One needs state legislatures to implement massive voter suppression measures and highly partisan courts to uphold them

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                    And for some smart analysis read this from emptywheel

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                      The Sam Jackson clip is wonderful.

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                        Outlines of the new NAFTA agreement released. Chapter 19 preserved as previously (major win for Canada). US gets access to Canadian dairy market, (win for US), tariffs lifted on Canadian steel and aluminum, (win for Canada), no US tariffs on most auto parts, (win for Canada,) Canada accepts quota system on vehicles shipped to the US (win for US.) Trump's already signed off apparently.

                        On first glance Canada "wins" what it already had prior to this negotiation, while the US gains, though new, don't amount to very much. The dairy concessions provide only a few percentage points more for the US than the TPP signatories are allowed, and the auto quotas are based on what the Canadian industry said it could live with without damaging existing or projected exports.

                        So months of sturm und drang amounting to not much of anything. Of course the orange shit-gibbon will spin it as the greatest treaty since the Congress of Vienna, but... zzzzzzzzzzzz
                        Last edited by Amor de Cosmos; 01-10-2018, 04:43.

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                          Of course the orange shit-gibbon will spin it as the greatest treaty since the Congress of Vienna,
                          To be fair, it sounds like a pretty successful negotiation for him. Certainly better than North Korea or the EU "deal". I've only seen the headlines, so maybe there's something else, but he got Canada to open up its dairy market and Mexico to make some relatively modest concessions on autos – which seem pretty sensible in their own right – for basically nothing in return other than not tearing up NAFTA (which would have been shooting himself in the foot in the long run anyway).
                          Last edited by Ginger Yellow; 01-10-2018, 09:01.

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                            Will this be the end of it with NAFTA? I mean, it sounds like a success, but where he's got to isn't all that far from "the worst trade deal ever".

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                              Will this be the end of it with NAFTA?
                              As in will he try to renegotiate further? It's Trump so who knows, but hard to imagine Obrador will be as accommodating as Nieto. I suspect he'll be happy to have chalked up a win. I mean, it's not like he understands the details anyway.

                              Comment


                                Originally posted by Ginger Yellow View Post
                                To be fair, it sounds like a pretty successful negotiation for him. Certainly better than North Korea or the EU "deal". I've only seen the headlines, so maybe there's something else, but he got Canada to open up its dairy market and Mexico to make some relatively modest concessions on autos – which seem pretty sensible in their own right – for basically nothing in return other than not tearing up NAFTA (which would have been shooting himself in the foot in the long run anyway).
                                Agreed, especially as it turns out Canada has extended patent protection on US pharmaceuticals to ten years. Over time this might be the most unpopular move of them all here. But it goes without saying that the US was always going to "win" this negotiation. Unlike the EU NAFTA isn't, and never could be, a treaty between equal partners. Canada and Mexico, are just relieved to survive with their national economies intact.

                                Edit: BTW, NAFTA no longer exists. What we now have is the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA.) So Trump can boast that he's destroyed NAFTA after all.
                                Last edited by Amor de Cosmos; 01-10-2018, 14:01.

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                                  Is it Indiana that has the big pharma sector? Will this help the Republicans there, or is it too esoteric? We really don't need them gaining the senate seat.

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                                    I've no idea.

                                    We're now beginning to find the devils in the details. For example there’s a clause allowing cancellation of the pact if any of the countries strike a free-trade agreement with a “non-market economy.” Clearly an attempt to hinder an FTA between Canada or Mexico and China, for example.

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                                      Doesn't that muck up Canada's participation in TPP?

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                                        China's not in TPP. Technically nobody is.

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                                          Indiana does have an oversize pharma sector.

                                          Trade deals such as this have about 1% of the impact on mid-term voters that Tubbs seems to think they do.

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                                            Originally posted by Tubby Isaacs View Post
                                            Doesn't that muck up Canada's participation in TPP?
                                            TPP11 — its successor, minus the USA — hasn't been ratified yet. I'm guessing the definition of a "non-market economy" will need clarification before much happens.

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                                              Originally posted by ursus arctos View Post
                                              Indiana does have an oversize pharma sector.

                                              Trade deals such as this have about 1% of the impact on mid-term voters that Tubbs seems to think they do.
                                              I didn't think anything. I asked whether it was too esoteric.

                                              But it's not like Donnelly is winning by a street.

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                                                Originally posted by Amor de Cosmos View Post
                                                TPP11 — its successor, minus the USA — hasn't been ratified yet. I'm guessing the definition of a "non-market economy" will need clarification before much happens.
                                                Apologies, in retrospect it sounds like it's targeted at China specifically.

                                                Trump could rejoin the TPP11 sometime, I suppose.

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                                                  I suppose Vietnam, which has signed on to TPPP11, would also be a non-market economy, but I can't imagine Trump's all that concerned about them. Vietnam is mainly a trade threat to China and Bangladesh and BRICS types, not the US.

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                                                    In what sense is China (or Vietnam for that matter) not a market economy?

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