Trump's Card

[ursus arctos]

We can always hope.

Though I wonder how many of them registered and how many voted, as well as how many of those who did not still intend to return to the island.

[Etienne]

I'd think there's certainly some demographic difference between Hispanics in Florida (more from Puerto Rico, Dominica and Cuba, less from Central America) and Mexico/Arizona/Nevada. But the much higher rates of Cubans is likely to make some difference. I couldn't see any information about Hispanic voting in Georgia in that link. I see that the Hispanic voting patterns for Senator and Governor in Florida were basically identical - while there's a big discrepancy in Arizona, though I know nothing about the specifics of the Arizona gubernatorial race.

[Etienne]

Ursus has replied better while I was typing, although in my reading Gillum did marginally better than Nelson with Latinos.

[ursus arctos]

Unfortunate auto-correct.

The Pew numbers had both Gillum and Nelson getting 54 percent of Florida Latinos, compared to 62 percent for HRC, which is a more significant difference than I realised at first. And one that gives some evidence of AP's idea that there is personal animosity toward 45 that doesn't always translate to votes for Democrats in other races.

[Etienne]

Hah yes, I'll edit that. Gollum would be a better description of Gillum's opponent.

[San Bernardhinault]

Can anyone explain why Palm Beach County could do an almost complete vote count on election day for all of the elections, yet can't complete 3 recounts by Thursday (having started on Saturday)? It seems very weird to me.

[Etienne]

Are tgey not doing a manual hand count this time? I agree about the weirdness of course.

[San Bernardhinault]

They do a machine recount for any races with a margin under 0.5%, with a deadline of Thursday. If there's still a margin under 0.25% after the machine recount, then they do a manual recount with a deadline a few days later.

[ursus arctos]

The issue seems to be a limited number of machines that are available for the recount. I would have thought that a machine recount just involved re-polling each of the machines used for the initial vote, but Palm Beach county seems to have a process where a total of eight machines are used to recount the county's entire vote.

Florida, man.

[San Bernardhinault]

Holy crap. Is that right? They use loads of machines on election day itself, but can only use eight for the recount?

Florida sinking under the rising seas of climate change might be one of the better things to look forward to in the next century.

[ursus arctos]

That's what the Palm Beach Post mentioned in passing. They appear not to see it as worthy of comment.

[caja-dglh]

It makes a lot of sense. How are you going to rig *all* the machines?

[ursus arctos]

You really shouldn't be putting quality content like that out gratis.

[San Bernardhinault]

Getting in ahead of Tubbs - Pima and Pinal counties have posted more results in AZ which has stretched Sinema's lead to about 35,000; and given the Dem a 3,000 lead in the Sec of State race. The general feeling now is that Pinal was the only place with a lot of outstanding ballots that was likely to swing strongly to McSally. McSally now need to win the 180k (ish) outstanding votes mostly in Maricopa by about 18%. This is close to being done.

[Nefertiti2]

https://twitter.com/MamaGr3/status/1062105614053195782

[Satchmo Distel]

Scott and Nelson could be filing suits for months based on how unsatisfactory the process will seem to be for whomever loses the recount.

[Lang Spoon]

The Democrat will lose. That’s my Hot Take.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Sinema up by 38,197.

[The Awesome Berbaslug!!!]

That thing about Fox news and the drudge report is pretty extraordinary.

[ursus arctos]

The Fox thing has been reported as relating to the "Antifa Attack" on Tucker Carlson's home, though it also seemed to coincide with Murdoch's visit to McConnell.

The concept of Mueller issuing a "cease and desist order" is rather fanciful.

[Lang Spoon]

Oh, so nothing is happening so.

[The Awesome Berbaslug!!!]

Hold on, someone attacked Tucker Carlson's house? Are those flames I see lapping at the windows of the Reichstag?

[Lang Spoon]

His wife was very upset by the antifa mob, how very dare you.

[Lang Spoon]

On the Reichstag Fire, I was v surprised to hear liberal Germans saying most categorically it was the work of the Dutch communist lad. Is there a consensus on whether it was fortuitous for the lads in their Hugo Boss or a Nazi stunt to shut down the rule of law?

[The Awesome Berbaslug!!!]

He seems to have been most enthusiastic in taking credit for it. He doesn't seem to have been in the whole of his mental health. The other people charged were acquitted. I think they basically just took advantage of something that happened.