Mr Burns following in the rear.
Announcement
Collapse
No announcement yet.
Trump's Card
Collapse
X
-
They estimate about 270k ballots left to count in AZ. 200k in Maricopa (Phoenix), 40k in Pima (Tucson), 20k in Pinal (Phoenix Southern 'burbs), 10k in Coconino (Flagstaff).
McSally needs to win the overall remaining votes by something like 9% to even trigger a recount.
Coconino is very Democrat (62-35 so far). Pinal is Republican (55-42) which should balance the outstanding Coconino votes. Pima is pretty Democrat (56-42), so McSally needs to do very well in the remaining Maricopa votes to win.
Comment
-
I should point out to the non-US-ers here that AZ and FL are massive deals, which is why we're focusing on them. It won't make much difference until 2020 (well, perhaps a 52-48 Senate with Murkowski, Collins and Romney showing maverick tendencies could make a tiny difference). But a 53-47 or (unlikely) 52-48 balance now would make a Democratic senate in 2020 much less of a reach into really red states. You wouldn't be hoping against hope for Beto to defeat John Cornyn.
Comment
-
"Murkowski, Collins and Romney showing maverick tendencies" will never happen.
FL governorship is also crucial because of gerrymandering, implementation of Amendment 4, trying to save our environment from total catastrophe, and just to give the Dems "a place at the table" ( i.e. leverage) as Gillum stated in his premature concession speech. I think a clean sweep for the GOP would dishearten lukewarm volunteers and voters to the extent that they may not try as hard in future, thinking it's too rigged, especially the Latino and black vote that has to be gotten out in 2020.Last edited by Satchmo Distel; 11-11-2018, 02:35.
Comment
-
Well, given that we knew what was happening in Georgia, I think we all thought there'd be voter fraud.
One interesting thing I've spotted is that the entire southern border of the US - apart from Will Hurd's Texas seat which hasn't been called and which he's leading by 0.5% - is now represented by Democrats. It's almost as if the people who have the most direct interaction with Mexico are not actually scared of Mexicans.
Comment
-
Originally posted by San Bernardhinault View PostWell, given that we knew what was happening in Georgia, I think we all thought there'd be voter fraud.
One interesting thing I've spotted is that the entire southern border of the US - apart from Will Hurd's Texas seat which hasn't been called and which he's leading by 0.5% - is now represented by Democrats. It's almost as if the people who have the most direct interaction with Mexico are not actually scared of Mexicans.
Comment
-
Originally posted by johnr View PostI think, today, this thread will get to 500 pages, marking my first, and probably only, half-ton. Unfortunately, I'm out, and won't be here to mark it.
Can I just say that I'm so very very proud to be a part of it, and I think Donald would be too.
I thank you all.
Make OTF Great Again!
Comment
-
So, has the voting patterns of the Hispanic community in Florida and Georgia been discussed yet?
http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank...2018-midterms/
Comment
-
Originally posted by Satchmo Distel View PostLots of conservative Cubans in FloridaLast edited by Tactical Genius; 12-11-2018, 13:22.
Comment
-
Florida Cubans have an outsized impact on state and national politics for my entire life, but while it is true that they still are more conservative on the whole than other Latinos in the state, that is no longer enough on its own to explain statewide results. This article from 2016 is useful on the demographic changes to the Latino population in Florida; Cubans now only represent less than a third of the total (and I would expect that proportion to have gone down since 2016 due to the influx of Puerto Ricans after the hurricanes).
There is more "Latino" flight capital in Florida (and especially Miami) than in other states, as it remains the favourite "safe" destination of wealthy Latin Americans and their money, but I would suggest that this year's results also reflect the long-standing importance of race in Latin culture (particularly among the better off). That said, the Latino vote for Gillum was only one percentage point below that for Nelson (who is white) and only two points below that for HRC in 2016. One thing that is very obvious is that Democratic hopes for a massive boost from Puerto Ricans livid with the Administration's mismanagement of hurricane relief didn't meet expectations.
Comment
Comment