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    I told you 6 months ago that it would be a hilariously racist shit-show. And that was before Hunter was done for corruption and flying his pet bunny around in first class. (*)

    * - technically not my district. It starts 500 yards from here. But it's the most entertaining district around here. More interesting the Darrell Issa's ex district, and certainly more interesting than the other safe Democrat seats in the county.

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      It's really striking to me how much San Diego has changed since the late 70s/early 80s. The same is true of Orange County.

      It is easy to see why Republicans in Texas and Florida evoke California as a Venezuelan hell hole (with more progressive social policies).

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        San Diego's changed in the 6 years since I've been here. My current district was an absolute marginal in 2014. This time it's dead safe.

        There seems to have always been the split between the coast and the interior. The coast was always socially liberal. But in San Diego it was also tax-warriors and military-fetish and gun-rights nuts, too. Despite the massive military presence still being in the city, the gun-rights and tax warrior elements have really begun to fade until you get towards the edge of the city where I am.

        I feel Orange County may have shifted even more. Orange County is still full of ridiculously ugly mega-churches, and still seems to have no soul and no center and just be a never-ending parade of indentikit tract housing and highways. But the people who populate it are wealthy and educated. Which in California means that while they may be conservative in some regards, they are largely repusled by the Trumpian elements of the Republican Party and have ended up Democrats by default.

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          And they aren’t all families led by white aerospace engineers any longer.

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            Predicted turnout in Nevada is 77%.

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              Originally posted by Tactical Genius View Post
              I don't get why black people are killing themselves to come out for Gillum, he has no specific policies for black people besides some very vague comments.
              Yes, but at the very least, the rate at which things get worse will be slower, than if he loses to an open white supremacist. This is where we are now. I get that Hilary Clinton may not have been the most attractive candidate to the Black Community in America, and this was reflected in reduced turnout. In most states this didn't change anything, but in a few it may well have. The upshot of this sort of activity is Jefferson Beauregard Sessions is Attorney General of the United States and is spearheading a drive to preserve a white majority by leading the charge to disenfranchise and criminalize black people.

              I'm afraid that the idea that a candidate might do a lot of constructive things for their community was clearly dead by 1980 in the US. The last forty years have seemingly been all about trying to hold back the tide of barbarism.

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                The upshot of this sort of activity is Jefferson Beauregard Sessions is Attorney General of the United States
                Plus Kavanaugh and Gorsuch.

                There are 3 enforced retirements of Supreme Court Justices in Florida right now...

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                  Originally posted by WOM View Post
                  I like that you think you'd get elected in the US with 'black policy'.
                  I never said "black policy" so please do not misquote me as a way to undermine my point.

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                    Originally posted by Tactical Genius View Post
                    I never said "black policy" so please do not misquote me as a way to undermine my point.

                    Again, general and vague and nothing specific to black people.
                    so the political policy for black people specifically is Medicaid?
                    Those are issues facing black people specifically
                    Legalising weed is for white people.
                    You're drawing a lot of black policy / white policy distinctions to take much umbrage from my statement.

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                      Originally posted by Tubby Isaacs View Post
                      I'm not. I gave you school spending as well, and you rejected that because he hadn't specified which schools would get it, or something. I mean, do you expect him to run saying "all this extra tax will go to minority schools" or something?
                      He was specific in his pledges for Illegal immigrants (who will take the jobs of black people mind) as well as the police.
                      being more specific about the areas of education he plans to bolster would be a good start.

                      And since he is pandering to the black abnd hispanic vote, that promise would be a vote winner in my opinion

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                        Originally posted by ursus arctos View Post
                        Tubbs, a motivated governor can actually do a lot about policing if he or she is supported by an Attorney General and prosecutor's office which (as TG suggests) starts prosecuting racist cops and BBQ Beckies and stops sending black kids to jail for victimless crimes that their white counterparts are never even arrested for.

                        The US system has local policing, but prosecution of all but very minor crimes is a state function. It's also worth noting that a not insignificant portion of a state like Florida is not under the control of any municipal or county police force, but rather directly patrolled by the State Police.
                        Thank you Ursus.

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                          Originally posted by Gerontophile View Post
                          Predicted turnout in Nevada is 77%.
                          That's an astonishing number, if it turns out to be right.

                          It's really important, at this point, to note that it's almost impossible to learn anything useful from early voting numbers. Every time people have tried, they seem to have come unstuck. People always try and read in how many registered R and D have voted, but loads of people registered as one or the other 3 decades ago, and their current status is just legacy rather than meaningful. And you have no data at all on the independents. Nor on whether the early-voters were just very enthusiastic people who'd have voted anyway rather than additional extra voters.

                          Basically, there are so many unknowns and variables that it's not worth the effort.

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                            Originally posted by Tubby Isaacs View Post
                            Plus Kavanaugh and Gorsuch.

                            There are 3 enforced retirements of Supreme Court Justices in Florida right now...
                            Is Scott able to replace them with his own appointees before the new governor gets in? If so, we're fucked.

                            Comment


                              Originally posted by Satchmo Distel View Post
                              Is Scott able to replace them with his own appointees before the new governor gets in? If so, we're fucked.
                              San Bernardhinault knows about this.

                              Comment


                                Originally posted by Tactical Genius View Post
                                He was specific in his pledges for Illegal immigrants (who will take the jobs of black people mind) as well as the police.
                                being more specific about the areas of education he plans to bolster would be a good start.

                                And since he is pandering to the black abnd hispanic vote, that promise would be a vote winner in my opinion
                                He's specified raising teacher salaries, but not much else, fair point.

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                                  Originally posted by Satchmo Distel View Post
                                  Is Scott able to replace them with his own appointees before the new governor gets in? If so, we're fucked.
                                  It's a bit of a scandal. There are three relatively old Democrat appointees. They're required to retire due to their age on Jan 5 at midnight. Scott leaves the governors mansion on Jan 5 at midnight - in theory. But in theory the new governor doesn't get sworn in until midday the next day. Scott was planning on appointing three replacements in that vague 12 hour window, but the FL Supreme Court said that wasn't allowed and it was the new governors job.

                                  My understanding is that even if Gillum wins, he still can't appoint properly progressive judges - he has to appoint from a list supplied by some commission who are heavily Republican. But that list will probably have relative moderates and complete nutters, and he can stop the nutters.

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                                    Originally posted by WOM View Post
                                    You're drawing a lot of black policy / white policy distinctions to take much umbrage from my statement.
                                    I said policies to specifically help black people.

                                    In your numerous quotes, I never said black policy.

                                    I have listed those policies numerous times (why don't you address those)
                                    The only policy I said it specifically about white people is the legalisation of weed. This is something i stand by unless he combines it with releasing all people in jail for non-violent charges of weed possession.

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                                      Originally posted by San Bernardhinault View Post
                                      It's a bit of a scandal. There are three relatively old Democrat appointees. They're required to retire due to their age on Jan 5 at midnight. Scott leaves the governors mansion on Jan 5 at midnight - in theory. But in theory the new governor doesn't get sworn in until midday the next day. Scott was planning on appointing three replacements in that vague 12 hour window, but the FL Supreme Court said that wasn't allowed and it was the new governors job.

                                      My understanding is that even if Gillum wins, he still can't appoint properly progressive judges - he has to appoint from a list supplied by some commission who are heavily Republican. But that list will probably have relative moderates and complete nutters, and he can stop the nutters.
                                      Interesting GOP double standard given that Obama was blocked from appointing a SCOTUS judge months before the end of his term.

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                                        Ha! You live in a Rick Scott state and seem to be expecting him to show consistency over expediency, and thinking he might get damaged over choppy-waters insider politics stuff. Are you parodying Tubby?

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                                          TG, Florida has a weird state constitutional provision that prohibits the legislature (let alone the Governor acting alone) to reduce the sentences of people who have already been convicted.

                                          There is a referendum on the ballot tomorrow to eliminate that provision, which is a necessary first step to real reform in that area.

                                          Structural racism in Florida is very deeply dug in, and has been for the state's entire history.

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                                            12 polling places in CA 22 have been moved without anyone informing the Democrat candidate.

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                                              CNN have just reviewed polls and said that if they win the vote by 7% they might not win the house. No comment on what a joke this is.

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                                                Originally posted by Tubby Isaacs View Post
                                                CNN have just reviewed polls and said that if they win the vote by 7% they might not win the house. No comment on what a joke this is.
                                                Apparently this very much depends on where the vote actually goes. Some theories say that a 7% Dem win will involve them racking up the votes in urban districts they already hold, and in CA and New England, which will massively limit gains. Other theories suggest that they are going to outperform in the burbs (the urban hordes already voted for them in 2016 and 2014), which would mean they could win the house with only a 3-4% margin. It's still, of course, ridiculous that they could lose while winning. But the net overall vote doesn't necessarily tell us who'll win. We need to know where these people are voting.

                                                Separate Tubby-specific polling stuff - most of the generic ballot polls at the moment are around 51-42. That means 7% of people are "undecided". Again there are two competing theories - one is that these people are shy Trumpers who don't want to admit the shame of voting for arseholes, and we should be very worried. The other is that traditionally undecideds break late for whichever party doesn't hold the Presidency, so the numbers may rack up for Democrats.

                                                Your takeaway should be that everything is basically impossible to second-guess until we have most of the votes in from any race.

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                                                  Originally posted by The Awesome Berbaslug!!! View Post
                                                  Yes, but at the very least, the rate at which things get worse will be slower, than if he loses to an open white supremacist.
                                                  Dude, being on the shit end of white supremacy is a daily experience of black people in the western world (no hyperbole here).

                                                  This is where we are now. I get that Hilary Clinton may not have been the most attractive candidate to the Black Community in America, and this was reflected in reduced turnout.
                                                  May have?

                                                  This is the lady behind the crime bills of the mid 90's that led to alot of black people being locked up for a long time for relatively minor offences. Do you have any idea of the effects this had on black families.
                                                  As an Irish person, you saw the effect of mass incarceration of Irish Catholic men in the 70's and 80's on frivolous charges and the community effect thereof.
                                                  And when she and her husband were confronted about this before the last election, they blamed black people.

                                                  In most states this didn't change anything, but in a few it may well have. The upshot of this sort of activity is Jefferson Beauregard Sessions is Attorney General of the United States and is spearheading a drive to preserve a white majority by leading the charge to disenfranchise and criminalize black people.
                                                  Is "disenfranchise and criminalize black people" supposed to scare black people, this took place under Obama too...... Wait a minute, there was nothing he could do about that right(that old chestnut)?

                                                  Finally, let me address this "Trump is worse than Clinton" nonsense from a black perspective.
                                                  Trump is coming up to two years as president. By this time in Bill Clinton's presidency, him, Hilary and Joe Biden had passed their infamous crime bill. God know what they were cooking up for black folks in the first 18 months if they got in this time.........

                                                  Drops Mic

                                                  Comment


                                                    Originally posted by ursus arctos View Post
                                                    TG, Florida has a weird state constitutional provision that prohibits the legislature (let alone the Governor acting alone) to reduce the sentences of people who have already been convicted.

                                                    There is a referendum on the ballot tomorrow to eliminate that provision, which is a necessary first step to real reform in that area.
                                                    Can he not mass pardon people (genuine question)
                                                    I am sure if there is the political will, such things can be overcome somehow. Also if Floridians in general are for the decriminalisation of Weed, then it only logical to release people on non violent related weed charges. The votes he will win from Black, Hispanics and poor whites would more than dwarf any backlash from the conservatives (especially if he gives ex-inmates the right to vote).

                                                    Structural racism in Florida is very deeply dug in, and has been for the state's entire history.
                                                    I know all about that, lynchings and ethnic cleansing of prosperous black towns was a proud state tradition in the good old days. It made Mississippi look like a liberal paradise.

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