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    And for some smart analysis read this from emptywheel

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      The Sam Jackson clip is wonderful.

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        Outlines of the new NAFTA agreement released. Chapter 19 preserved as previously (major win for Canada). US gets access to Canadian dairy market, (win for US), tariffs lifted on Canadian steel and aluminum, (win for Canada), no US tariffs on most auto parts, (win for Canada,) Canada accepts quota system on vehicles shipped to the US (win for US.) Trump's already signed off apparently.

        On first glance Canada "wins" what it already had prior to this negotiation, while the US gains, though new, don't amount to very much. The dairy concessions provide only a few percentage points more for the US than the TPP signatories are allowed, and the auto quotas are based on what the Canadian industry said it could live with without damaging existing or projected exports.

        So months of sturm und drang amounting to not much of anything. Of course the orange shit-gibbon will spin it as the greatest treaty since the Congress of Vienna, but... zzzzzzzzzzzz
        Last edited by Amor de Cosmos; 01-10-2018, 04:43.

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          Of course the orange shit-gibbon will spin it as the greatest treaty since the Congress of Vienna,
          To be fair, it sounds like a pretty successful negotiation for him. Certainly better than North Korea or the EU "deal". I've only seen the headlines, so maybe there's something else, but he got Canada to open up its dairy market and Mexico to make some relatively modest concessions on autos – which seem pretty sensible in their own right – for basically nothing in return other than not tearing up NAFTA (which would have been shooting himself in the foot in the long run anyway).
          Last edited by Ginger Yellow; 01-10-2018, 09:01.

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            Will this be the end of it with NAFTA? I mean, it sounds like a success, but where he's got to isn't all that far from "the worst trade deal ever".

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              Will this be the end of it with NAFTA?
              As in will he try to renegotiate further? It's Trump so who knows, but hard to imagine Obrador will be as accommodating as Nieto. I suspect he'll be happy to have chalked up a win. I mean, it's not like he understands the details anyway.

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                  Originally posted by Ginger Yellow View Post
                  To be fair, it sounds like a pretty successful negotiation for him. Certainly better than North Korea or the EU "deal". I've only seen the headlines, so maybe there's something else, but he got Canada to open up its dairy market and Mexico to make some relatively modest concessions on autos – which seem pretty sensible in their own right – for basically nothing in return other than not tearing up NAFTA (which would have been shooting himself in the foot in the long run anyway).
                  Agreed, especially as it turns out Canada has extended patent protection on US pharmaceuticals to ten years. Over time this might be the most unpopular move of them all here. But it goes without saying that the US was always going to "win" this negotiation. Unlike the EU NAFTA isn't, and never could be, a treaty between equal partners. Canada and Mexico, are just relieved to survive with their national economies intact.

                  Edit: BTW, NAFTA no longer exists. What we now have is the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA.) So Trump can boast that he's destroyed NAFTA after all.
                  Last edited by Amor de Cosmos; 01-10-2018, 14:01.

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                    Is it Indiana that has the big pharma sector? Will this help the Republicans there, or is it too esoteric? We really don't need them gaining the senate seat.

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                      I've no idea.

                      We're now beginning to find the devils in the details. For example there’s a clause allowing cancellation of the pact if any of the countries strike a free-trade agreement with a “non-market economy.” Clearly an attempt to hinder an FTA between Canada or Mexico and China, for example.

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                        Doesn't that muck up Canada's participation in TPP?

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                          China's not in TPP. Technically nobody is.

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                            Indiana does have an oversize pharma sector.

                            Trade deals such as this have about 1% of the impact on mid-term voters that Tubbs seems to think they do.

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                              Originally posted by Tubby Isaacs View Post
                              Doesn't that muck up Canada's participation in TPP?
                              TPP11 — its successor, minus the USA — hasn't been ratified yet. I'm guessing the definition of a "non-market economy" will need clarification before much happens.

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                                Originally posted by ursus arctos View Post
                                Indiana does have an oversize pharma sector.

                                Trade deals such as this have about 1% of the impact on mid-term voters that Tubbs seems to think they do.
                                I didn't think anything. I asked whether it was too esoteric.

                                But it's not like Donnelly is winning by a street.

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                                  Originally posted by Amor de Cosmos View Post
                                  TPP11 — its successor, minus the USA — hasn't been ratified yet. I'm guessing the definition of a "non-market economy" will need clarification before much happens.
                                  Apologies, in retrospect it sounds like it's targeted at China specifically.

                                  Trump could rejoin the TPP11 sometime, I suppose.

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                                    I suppose Vietnam, which has signed on to TPPP11, would also be a non-market economy, but I can't imagine Trump's all that concerned about them. Vietnam is mainly a trade threat to China and Bangladesh and BRICS types, not the US.

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                                      In what sense is China (or Vietnam for that matter) not a market economy?

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                                        Obviously it has markets of various sorts, but among other things: state ownership and direction of an extremely large part of the economy, massive restrictions on private and especially overseas ownership of assets and companies, frequent and largely arbitrary government interventions in corporate affairs, strict capital and slightly less strict currency controls, a legal system which is not friendly to private property interests, especially those of overseas persons.

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                                          Those (nearly) all sound like good things. Shame about the human rights violations.

                                          It's mostly all about degree though isn't it? Every country is sort of beholden to the markets on some level with varying degrees of government regulation and control. So this would be about where the line is drawn on the continuum (as opposed to some kind of clear black and white division)

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                                            Those things all sound good in theory, but in practice they're closer to feudalism when you mix them up just right. Though that's more a function of the underlying society more than anything else.

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                                              Originally posted by ursus arctos View Post
                                              Indiana does have an oversize pharma sector.

                                              Trade deals such as this have about 1% of the impact on mid-term voters that Tubbs seems to think they do.
                                              Yeah. Tubbs, I think at this point at least 90% of the American electorate is set on knowing what side they'll vote for in any major election, and the rest of the 10% are motivated by anger, spite, and/or perceived resentment of the person they are voting against. People aren't paying attention to things like trade deals when they decide to vote.

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                                                I'll go with you and Ursus on this, on reflection.

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                                                  Those (nearly) all sound like good things.
                                                  It's not about whether they're good or bad, it's about whether they make China amenable to US investment and exports, and hence something the US trade representative wants to encourage.

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                                                    https://twitter.com/7im/status/1046861519147819008

                                                    https://twitter.com/7im/status/1046861519147819008

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