Trump's Card

[ursus arctos]

Sporting, the average Democrat in West Virginia is significantly to the right of the average Republican in New York. There are some Democrats who would identify as progressive, but there aren't very many of them.

Sanders won the primary with fewer than 125,000 votes.

[Walt Flanagans Dog]

Can't link but Manchin has tweeted he's Yes

[Walt Flanagans Dog]

He's on live now getting drowned out by protestors

[San Bernardhinault]

I think this is poor from Manchin, from a purely political point of view. I think it would have been far worse for Kavanaugh's legitimacy if he went through on Pence's vote. But in terms of actual outcomes, we're still guaranteed to end with Kavanaugh on the court; and even if he was shoved out of the way they'd slip Kethledge through in the lame duck session, with the end result the same in terms of judicial outcomes.

[ursus arctos]

https://twitter.com/Sen_JoeManchin/status/1048300503099170817?s=19

[Tubby Isaacs]

Sporting, here are state by state views on abortion.

http://www.pewforum.org/religious-la...tion/by/state/

West Virginia has the lowest support for abortion being "legal in all/most cases". 35%.

[ursus arctos]

SB, what do you mean by "from a purely political point of view"?

To me, this is the most cynically effective move that Manchin could have made as far as his own political future is concerned. I believe that it increases his chances for re-election considerably, and that he never had any intention of running in 2024. He can even claim that his vote didn't change the outcome, as Pence would have broken the tie.

[San Bernardhinault]

I mean from a Democratic/liberal perspective, there would be a very strong political case against Kavanaugh's legitimacy if he was the only justice ever to be confirmed by the VP. If the Democrats ever want to campaign against Kavanaugh's future rulings, this would create that extra leverage. I understand from the perspective of personal, local electoral campaigning this is a good move from Manchin.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Would the VP tie breaker make that much difference? More shit comes out v Kavanaugh and he's a walking embarrassment for the Republicans. Does him getting 1 Democratic vote change that?

[ursus arctos]

Ah, I can see that, though Manchin has never been one to give two shits about such concerns.

It isn't just justices, no federal judge has ever been confirmed by a tiebreak.

[tee rex]

Kavanother Beer to be confirmed and then drop dead, liver failure.

[Incandenza]

https://twitter.com/heykmenz/status/1048301724333748229

https://twitter.com/heykmenz/status/1048301724333748229

May you never enjoy another meal at a restaurant in peace.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Changing the subject slightly. Amor, what do you make of this?

https://twitter.com/ddale8/status/1047897885751300096

[Lang Spoon]

https://twitter.com/heykmenz/status/1048301724333748229

https://twitter.com/heykmenz/status/1048301724333748229

May you never enjoy another meal at a restaurant in peace.

Those links seems to be dead now.

[ursus arctos]

Weird. The links work for me, but the tweet no longer displays.

It’s about Collins “feeling bullied” by protestors

[ursus arctos]

BTW, I had forgotten that Manchin was in fact primaried this cycle.

He won 70-30

[ursus arctos]

https://twitter.com/kaitlancollins/status/1048324453246140418?s=21

[Nefertiti2]

Those links seems to be dead now.

Like American democracy.

[Nefertiti2]

Chritstopher Browning historian of the Holocaust whose book “ Ordinary Men” is perhaps the key text on how “ordinary Germans” participated in the extermination of the Jews and Rroma has called McConnell
“The gravedigger of American democracy” in an article in the NYRB

https://twitter.com/jamesfallows/status/1048066542427103232?s=21

[Lang Spoon]

Yep I’m more and more convinced the only way the republicans will be removed from power is through violence. But those cunts have all the guns through state violence and private citizen bastards. So maybes we are just fucked. Not I must stress, am I advocating violent revolution

[Amor de Cosmos]

Changing the subject slightly. Amor, what do you make of this?

https://twitter.com/ddale8/status/1047897885751300096

Sounds about right. It seems pretty clear now that the goal of Canada/US negotiations — at least from the Canadian side, and maybe the US's too — was to provide His Orangeness with enough words to claim a magnificent victory without changing anything of significance. The dairy farmers' supply management system is still in place, the Canadian auto industry is happy, and the clause forbidding independent trade treaties from non-market economies barely raised an eyebrow in Ottawa. Justin had already been in Beijing earlier this year try work out a bilateral arrangement with no success. He's unlikely to consider another trip until well after next Autumn's election, by which time the game is likely to have changed substantially. He's got much more pressing issues on his plate domestically, what with pipelines and stuff, to worry about what's happening in Washington.

[ursus arctos]

Spoony, if you are going to keep it up with the Hébertiste rabble rousing, you may want to consider a less searchable venue, lest there be a knock at your door.

[Lang Spoon]

Good point, well made. I’m just really depressed and utterly pessimistic of things getting better through norms I had faith in till like 5 minutes ago.

[ursus arctos]

We are forming an orderly queue.

Some norms endure.

[Satchmo Distel]

The Browning article is very good. Ironically, considering that his key work is "Ordinary Men", its one weakness is the omission of the rank and file who make Trump possible by not voting out his enablers. This will be apparent if the GOP gets a boost from the Kavanaugh affair in the midterms rather than being damaged by it. Although he points out that GOP senators are usually drawn from states with lower populations, that is still tens of millions of people willing to tolerate and even applaud a rapist being nominated the SCOTUS by a racist, misogynistic POTUS who locks up small kids for the crime of their parents being brown.