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    New Hampshire. Lost by less than 3,000 in 2016. Not obviously trending away from them either.

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      It has four electoral votes

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        Originally posted by ursus arctos View Post
        It has four electoral votes
        Yeah, I know.

        Trump got 304. Subtract 38, add 4. 270.

        Not a huge swing needed to take Minnesota (10).

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          Rotsa ruck with that.

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            Originally posted by ursus arctos View Post
            Rotsa ruck with that.
            The US Senate race in New Hampshire in 2016 was won by even fewer votes- 1,117.

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              You are assuming that the Trump map remains entirely intact in a world in which Texas goes Democrat.

              I don't live in that world.

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                https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1048196883464818688

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                  Demographic change, mostly.

                  Though it would help tremendously if Latinx began to vote in large numbers.

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                    Oh goody, he's jumping on the Soros bashing bandwagon. State visit for Orban soon?

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                      Funnily enough, seeing we were talking about Texas turning blue imminently, I thought the last election was a fairly reasonable place to start looking. And lo, 1,500 swing votes in New Hampshire and we get exactly what I said- the Republicans winning the presidency without Texas, and losing the popular vote.

                      Will the Republicans in future lose by 2.9 million and win the electoral college without Texas? Very unlikely. Could they lose the popular vote by a smaller amount, lose Texas but still win the presidential election. Of course they could, given the degree to which the Democrats pile up votes they don't need in California.

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                        If Latinos continue to turn out at only 40% in Texas, then Texas goes Democrat in 2032 due to demographics. Get out the Latino vote and it goes Democrat much earlier than that.

                        Coupled with that, Texans tend to be very pro-Texas. Almost as if they are their own country.

                        Run a Texan in 2020 (preferentially one who can do well in the midwest), mobilise the Latino vote in Texas and you have the Republicans on the run.

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                          Democrats need those votes in California. We need a filibuster proof statehouse.

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                            Originally posted by anton pulisov View Post
                            If Latinos continue to turn out at only 40% in Texas, then Texas goes Democrat in 2032 due to demographics. Get out the Latino vote and it goes Democrat much earlier than that.

                            Coupled with that, Texans tend to be very pro-Texas. Almost as if they are their own country.

                            Run a Texan in 2020 (preferentially one who can do well in the midwest), mobilise the Latino vote in Texas and you have the Republicans on the run.
                            The Democrats had a Texan VP candidate (Lloyd Bentsen) in 1988. To no obvious electoral benefit in Texas..

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                              Originally posted by anton pulisov View Post
                              If Latinos continue to turn out at only 40% in Texas, then Texas goes Democrat in 2032 due to demographics. Get out the Latino vote and it goes Democrat much earlier than that.

                              Coupled with that, Texans tend to be very pro-Texas. Almost as if they are their own country.

                              Run a Texan in 2020 (preferentially one who can do well in the midwest), mobilise the Latino vote in Texas and you have the Republicans on the run.
                              Yes, but let's see whatever voter intimidation/depression efforts that the Republicans cook up before we count our chickens before they're hatched.

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                                Before that 1988 election, there was an oil price collapse too. You might have expected the Democrats to do better in Texas than other places, with or without a Texan on the ticket. Doesn't look like they did.

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                                  Originally posted by Tubby Isaacs View Post
                                  The Democrats had a Texan VP candidate (Lloyd Bentsen) in 1988. To no obvious electoral benefit in Texas..
                                  The Republican presidential candidate in 1988 was no stranger to Texas.

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                                    Flake, Collins and Manchin are yes on cloture; Murkowski is a no.

                                    They don't need Pence
                                    Last edited by ursus arctos; 05-10-2018, 14:50.

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                                      Dems need to primary Manchin.

                                      edit: oh right, too late for that
                                      Last edited by anton pulisov; 05-10-2018, 14:57.

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                                        Who knows if he will even run again in 2024

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                                          I guess Manchin could be waiting to see which way Collins goes in the actual vote. If she is going to vote no then you'd think he would too.

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                                            Originally posted by anton pulisov View Post
                                            The Republican presidential candidate in 1988 was no stranger to Texas.
                                            Ha ha Touche.

                                            Well, he didn't do all that well in Texas in 1992, though he did win it.

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                                              There was another Texan on the ballot paper in 1992

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                                                Originally posted by anton pulisov View Post
                                                The Republican presidential candidate in 1988 was no stranger to Texas.
                                                this is one of the nine states where Mr. Bush claims residency

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                                                  I expect Murkowski's fairly sure the other Reps are in the bag. Having being a swing vote on Obamacare, I doubt she'd be one on this too.

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                                                    Originally posted by Etienne View Post
                                                    There was another Texan on the ballot paper in 1992
                                                    Oh Christ, yeah.

                                                    Forget my point.

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