Trump's Card

[Tubby Isaacs]

Now October, so a bit on polls. Heitkamp is doing very badly in them. Nelson, McCaskill, Donnelly, Sinema and Rosen very close. Tester, Manchin look OK. Bredesen and O'Rourke doing very well for their states, but seem to be a bit down.

Enough to scare the Republicans they could lose a seat or two, and enough to scare me they'll pickup about 4 seats.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Via Ari Berman.

[San Bernardhinault]

Now October, so a bit on polls. Heitkamp is doing very badly in them. Nelson, McCaskill, Donnelly, Sinema and Rosen very close. Tester, Manchin look OK. Bredesen and O'Rourke doing very well for their states, but seem to be a bit down.

Enough to scare the Republicans they could lose a seat or two, and enough to scare me they'll pickup about 4 seats.

Yeah. There seem to be a very large number of close races this year (or, in the case of Heitkamp, such a small electorate that 5 people changing their minds makes a big difference). Small shifts either way could have big shifts to overall outcomes in the Senate for the next couple of years.

[Tubby Isaacs]

The senate is so spectacularly unfair anyway, it's amazing to think they didn't regain it till 2014.

[Satchmo Distel]

I had always assumed that the 60 vote rule was a conservative insurance policy against the left rather than a liberal insurance policy against white nationalism and misogyny. I still think that the GOP could regret scrapping it when the demographics swing against white rule.

[anton pulisov]

It was a 60% majority until 18 months ago when Mitch changed it. Ginsberg and Thomas still got on the bench.

True

[Incandenza]

Man, what a piece of shit.

https://twitter.com/VoteChoice/statu...825991/video/1

https://twitter.com/VoteChoice/status/1047932623014825991/video/1

[anton pulisov]

Question. Would McCain have voted for this guy?

[ursus arctos]

We can’t be sure, but likely yes. His “maverick” moments rarely if ever involved judicial appointments.

[Lang Spoon]

The Supreme Court, the whole Madisonian bollocks is broken to fuck. God knows what happens next.

[San Bernardhinault]

I've been thinking about that recently, Spoony, why the US Supreme Court is so much more fought over than anyone else's. And I think it's because of the bizarre religious attitude to the constitution, and the fact that therefore the constitution is basically unchangeable but must always be interpreted by judges. Constitution-fetish is at the core of many of the US's ills.

[Lang Spoon]

The essay on McCain by Foster Wallace is v good. Even if he was a bit centrist wanker on politics generally he could still see through the cult of Veteran John.

[ursus arctos]

That "Constitution-fetish" is also why we have school desegregation, a right to abortion (for now), libel law that is much more reasonable than England's and why New York Times reporters and editors weren't jailed for publishing the Pentagon Papers and why Nixon couldn't keep the White House tapes secret.

Especially given the way political power is distributed in this country, having no checks on majority rule is seriously dangerous.

[Lang Spoon]

That "Constitution-fetish" is also why we have school desegregation, a right to abortion (for now), libel law that is much more reasonable than England's and why New York Times reporters and editors weren't jailed for publishing the Pentagon Papers and why Nixon couldn't keep the White House tapes secret.

Especially given the way political power is distributed in this country, having no checks on majority rule is seriously dangerous.

Indeed, but will such a safeguard survive the next few years?

[ursus arctos]

Progress will be much slower than it would be otherwise, but I don't believe it will cease.

[Lang Spoon]

I still think my hot baths cold knives solution is the only way to go for kauvanagh down. And every moderate cunt like flake and Collins as well. Bastards

[The Awesome Berbaslug!!!]

I don't know if this is the right thread, but can anyone explain why American industrial employment fell from 17.2 million in november 2000 to 14.3 million in november 2003? I know there was the dot com bubble bursting, but how did the US about a sixth of their manufacturing jobs in those three years, while rebounding to the same level of output. And then losing another 20% of what was left between january 2007 and january 2010, with a gradual but slow rise from that point. But it only employs 7% of the total workforce.

[ursus arctos]

My guess is that it is a combination of the downturn in demand caused by the recession and heavily indebted ompanies going to the wall, combined with outsourcing coming fully into vogue, as the real industrial impact of NAFTA took more than five years to manifest itself. There are almost certainly other factors, but those would have contributed to it.

[Sporting]

From a European standpoint, it's all very depressing reading how there has even been a slight upturn in GOP support in recent days in various constituencies. I wanna be an ostrich at times. Anyone able to cheer me up?

[anton pulisov]

You need cheering up? Texas will turn blue sooner than people think. And then the GOP will be permanently fucked.

[Etienne]

Only in presidential elections.

[anton pulisov]

New Jersey. Always straight to the point.

https://twitter.com/SenatorMenendez/status/1047924865427263488?s=19

[Tubby Isaacs]

Only in presidential elections.

And not even in that. They could win the presidency (via electoral college), House (via gerrymandering) and Senate (by racking up 2 seats in smaller states) while getting fewer votes in all. Plus the Supreme Court, of course.

[ursus arctos]

Can you show your work there?

How do they get to 270 without Texas?

[anton pulisov]

Texas is 38 electoral votes, so if it went Democrat it would represent a 76 electoral vote swing.

It would be the biggest realignment since the south went Republican after Civil Rights. It would essentially break the Republican coalition that has existed since that time.