Trump's Card

[anton pulisov]

cough

The U.S. Pacific Fleet commander said Thursday he would launch a nuclear strike against China next week if President Donald Trump ordered it, and warned against the military ever shifting its allegiance from its commander in chief.

[Tubby Isaacs]

I see Danny Tarkanian managed to come third to Sharron Angle in the 2010 Senate Primary. He does indeed sound like a winner.

[Amor de Cosmos]

cough

Is it realistic to expect him to say anything else though?

[anton pulisov]

Is it realistic to expect him to say anything else though?

I was just putting u.a.'s mind at ease.

[Satchmo Distel]

I didn't think the threat necessarily implied nukes. He probably thinks there are other ways to flatten North Korea, whilst magically avoiding retaliation, but the analyses I have heard say that NK would kill 40,000 South Koreans just with conventional missiles on the first day, which I think would lead to 45 then using nukes.

[tracteurgarcon]

I didn't think the threat necessarily implied nukes. He probably thinks there are other ways to flatten North Korea, whilst magically avoiding retaliation, but the analyses I have heard say that NK would kill 40,000 South Koreans just with conventional missiles on the first day, which I think would lead to 45 then using nukes.

I can't really see that there's any way a War against North Korea can result in anything other than hundreds of thousands of Korean dead on both sides of the border, along with a lot of dead US military personnel in South Korea.

Even with devastating precision strikes against the North, there's a good chance that parts of Seoul would get annihilated in a quick retaliation by conventional artillery let alone any WMD that Pyongyang might have available.

Even Trump must realise that no one really wins if there's another full-scale Korean War.

[anton pulisov]

Kim Jong Un's missile launches are for domestic comsumption. Everybody seems to know that except Donald himself.

@realDonaldTrump in 2013:

Be prepared, there is a small chance that our horrendous leadership could unknowingly lead us into World War III.

[Snake Plissken]

Even Trump must realise that no one really wins if there's another full-scale Korean War.

Yeah, but he's - to steal a phrase - nuke-curious.

[anton pulisov]

A longish piece which outlines the various engagement possibilities regarding North Korea. It considers two scenarios: an irrational Pyongyang and a rational Pyongyang. It also assumes a rational POTUS throughout, but whatever, it's a good piece.

[Ginger Yellow]

Depends what they're saying. NK has fissile material an the capacity to make it into warheads, and it has long range missiles. Neither are very reliable, it seems, but there's clearly a non-zero chance they could if unmolested deliver a devastating payload to, at a minimum, offshore US soil.

[Ginger Yellow]

I don't know about beyond a doubt, but none of the coverage I've read has expressed particular skepticism about the general capability, and that includes places that are not normally particularly hawkish.

Based on those tests, and on performance data from other missiles whose technology has been incorporated into the KN-20, everything depends on the weight of the payload. 300 kg is almost certainly too small for a reentry vehicle that must carry one of North Korea’s nuclear warheads and survive reentry at ICBM speeds. If they can manage to squeeze a warhead and survivable reentry vehicle into a 400 kg package (a very low possibility), New York might barely be within range. For more realistic 500-600 kg warheads, the KN-20 would be limited to west coast targets. Interestingly, adding extra engines does little to improve long-range performance with the lightest warheads, where the extra thrust isn’t needed and the weight of the engines competes with the warhead. North Korea’s press report alluded to “heavy warheads,” and their chosen missile design supports that interpretation.

...

The emphasis on heavy warheads suggests North Korea has plans to use any extra payload capability they can squeeze out of the design. One obvious possibility is a thermonuclear warhead. North Korea has never successfully tested such a device, and the sophisticated designs that allow the major nuclear powers to deliver hundreds of kilotons of yield from a package of only a few hundred kilograms weight are probably beyond Pyongyang’s reach for now. But there are ways for North Korea to incorporate a thermonuclear element to increase the yield of their current 10-20 kiloton fission warheads, and we expect they will seek to incorporate them in any ICBM design they field.

[anton pulisov]

Depends what they're saying. NK has fissile material an the capacity to make it into warheads, and it has long range missiles. Neither are very reliable, it seems, but there's clearly a non-zero chance they could if unmolested deliver a devastating payload to, at a minimum, offshore US soil.

Although they might have sarin gas, and that can be delivered on a missile in a much more straightforward way.

[Snake Plissken]

Why would North Korea attack the US and not South Korea?

(Well, they wouldn't. But that won't give Trump his excuse, will it?)

[Flynnie]

In order to maintain a semblance of sanity, I need to believe that the US military wouldn't execute a launch order in this spirit.

The senior officers in the chain have to have discussed this by now.

I'm pretty sure about 50% of the Mattis/Kelly coup to babysit the President is because of this.

The other 50% being that they can then get him to do whatever they want somewhere else, like Iran.

[ursus arctos]

One would need to combine it with a 25th Amendment procedure?

Alternatively, you could have a Queen court martial style impeachment, but that would take much more time.

[Flynnie]

Well, if they felt the order was unlawful then they are bound by law to refuse, and that could potentially mean whoever Trump tries to fire could argue they have been illegally fired and they still hold their post.

Basically a full-blown constitutional crisis. Goody.

[anton pulisov]

Basically a full-blown constitutional crisis. Goody.

Are you suggesting that the wise founding fathers don't have this covered? Just ask Clarence Thomas or Neil Gorsuch about the oft overlooked casino-owner-inadvertently-declaring-nuclear-war-on-Asian-country-from-golf-course-clubhouse clause. It's all in there.

[ursus arctos]

Pre-dawn FBI raid on Manafort's house last month

Federal agents appeared at Paul Manafort’s home without advance warning in the predawn hours of July 26, the day after he met voluntarily with the staff for the Senate Intelligence Committee.

The search warrant was wide-ranging and FBI agents working with special counsel Robert S. Mueller III departed the home with various records.

The raid came as Manafort has been voluntarily producing documents to congressional committees investigating Russia’s interference in the 2016 presidential election. The search warrant indicates investigators may have argued to a federal judge they had reason to believe Manafort could not be trusted to turn over all records in response to a grand jury subpoena.

It could also have been intended to send a message to President Trump’s former campaign chairman that he should not expect gentle treatment or legal courtesies from Mueller’s team.

[Ginger Yellow]

Surely Manafort's destroyed/stashed anything he thought would be incriminating long before now.

[ursus arctos]

When you are as dirty as Manafort, that can be harder to do than one might think.

[San Bernardhinault]

I'm always amazed at the amount of incriminating records that organisations and individuals keep when they do illegal business.

[San Bernardhinault]

How much faith should I be putting into these intelligence and media reports about the imminent threat to U.S. soil of WMDs?

My feeling is that the reporting on this is straight out of the "Iraq has missiles that can hit Britain with WMDs" playbook.

NK has launched a single long-range rocket, which failed on re-entry, which they can't aim accurately, and which can't carry a particularly big payload. If they struck lucky there's an outside chance that they could possibly deliver a single warhead to a random point on US territory, but even then the chances are it'll probably be some empty desert of mountains in the intermountain west (and, frankly, a moderate chance it'll land in Canada...).

They can hit "US territory" like the Northern Marianas or Guam, the same way Iraq could hit "UK territory" in Akrotiri and Dhekelia. Anything else is a desperate reach for the Norks, and not something a normal person would worry about much.

[WOM]

I'm always amazed at the amount of incriminating records that organisations and individuals keep when they do illegal business.

I guess. But you can't run an illegal anything just based on everyone remembering the details and balances and account numbers.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Are you suggesting that the wise founding fathers don't have this covered? Just ask Clarence Thomas or Neil Gorsuch about the oft overlooked casino-owner-inadvertently-declaring-nuclear-war-on-Asian-country-from-golf-course-clubhouse clause. It's all in there.

That's very good.

[anton pulisov]

Last time I was in the USA I was on the Texas coast and man was driving one of those golf cart things with his wife, son and daughters. He also had huge Trump flags flying from the golf cart.

I shouted, "woohooo! Trump!" and he waived back. I followed it up with, "Grab em by the pussy!"