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    That's right ray.

    Johnson's not courageous. His life has shown him that there are no consequences whatsoever for anything. So where's the bravery in that?

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      I think he's going to try and dare the EU27 to refuse the October 31 extension. Not just him, but the whole lot of them have decided that taking back control never meant taking responsibility.

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        You mean refuse a further extension?

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          Originally posted by San Bernardhinault View Post
          Yes, but the electoral consequences of that come rather too late to stop him becoming PM. He's going to have three years to fuck the country before the next election.
          I don’t think he lasts anywhere near that long. He isn’t going to be allowed to take the country over the cliff, and the clock is ticking. It takes months, if not longer, to secure the medicines needed in a no-deal scenario and the government has done fuck all. They aren’t remotely prepared for no-deal. The business community detests the idea, its the Whetherspoons guy and hedge funders now.

          The October Surprise election is a good idea but Boris campaigning on no deal is only going to send Remain voters flocking back to Labour, and if Labour shifts on policy towards Remain or a People’s Vote then things get even easier. If Boris runs on something more wishy-washy then Farage will run lots of candidates to soak up the Brexit vote. There’s obviously way more than ten anti-no-deal Tories, if not because I suspect anybody in an urban or suburban part of the UK where there’s any prosperity (and ergo trade with Europe) is probably fearing for their seat right now. Not least Boris.

          He gets compared to Trump but we aren’t America, we don’t have a presidential system of government with fixed in stone elections that don’t change in date.

          His best chance of surviving long term is probably some sort of Nixon goes to China move where he claims the EU are so unreasonable that we simply have to stay.

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            The plan is to get booted out, then it's full steam ahead to setup a hyper-jingoistic onslaught that will have enough support to deal with the economic crushing that will follow. Show people a bad guy, in this case that EU ('they refused compromise, they are trying to starve us, opposing me is treachery') and they will support you. People dying due to shortage of medicine? 'EU killing our sick people' in the compliant media.

            Etc,etc,etc...

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              Frankly, time-limit the backstop and the WA will probably go through the Commons. Katya Adler reckons the EU isn't as opposed to reopening the agreement and making changes as it claims it is. Or a legally binding codicil perhaps.

              It's possibly the most likely route to avoiding a No Deal exit.

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                Originally posted by Moonlight shadow View Post
                The plan is to get booted out, then it's full steam ahead to setup a hyper-jingoistic onslaught that will have enough support to deal with the economic crushing that will follow. Show people a bad guy, in this case that EU ('they refused compromise, they are trying to starve us, opposing me is treachery') and they will support you. People dying due to shortage of medicine? 'EU killing our sick people' in the compliant media.

                Etc,etc,etc...
                That’s not going to work. The media claiming EU killing brave sick Britons happens already, and only 30% of the country wants to leave without a deal. Get actual food and medicine shortages, a crashing pound, and economic catastrophe and you’ll be struggling to find a Brexiter.

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                  Originally posted by Nocturnal Submission View Post
                  time-limit the backstop
                  What does that even mean? How can it be a backstop if it's got a time limit?

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                    Not sure where you get the 30%, but Brexit is an abstraction to most people, few understand the consequences of it. Once out, there will be no other solution than either crawl back to beg for mercy or go hyper-jingoistic, i know which option is the likeliest. Ultimately, it will be the EU that decides what happens, even more so after Brexit when revocation of art50 is is gone.

                    Brexit has become a Year Zero project now.

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                      Originally posted by Flynnie View Post

                      His best chance of surviving long term is probably some sort of Nixon goes to China move where he claims the EU are so unreasonable that we simply have to stay.
                      I actually heard Matthew Parris float a similar suggestion a while ago and he directly referenced Nixon and China too. He mused if only someone seen as a genuine "Brexiteer" (even though we all know Johnson isn't really) could get a milder form of Brexit past the Tory party.

                      I can't say I see it happening but it's an interesting theory.
                      Last edited by Ray de Galles; 13-06-2019, 21:43.

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                        NS, as Fussbudget says a time limited backstop is a contradiction in terms. The backstop is a last resort in case of no agreement on future relationship. Ireland won't tolerate anything beyond a mild fudge in wording on the codicil. And Ireland has more power in this negotiation than the UK. Unless Johnson is willing to sell out the DUP fucks like the Tories did to Carson almost a century ago. A border in the Irish Sea between the Nordies and Crazy Brexit Racist Island probably wouldn't meet too many Irish Govt objections.

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                          Originally posted by Flynnie View Post
                          He isn’t going to be allowed to take the country over the cliff, and the clock is ticking. It takes months, if not longer, to secure the medicines needed in a no-deal scenario and the government has done fuck all.
                          I have to say that you're more optimistic than me.

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                            In fact, here it is again :

                            [URL]https://twitter.com/mathieuvonrohr/status/1135914578963865600?s=21[/URL]

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                              Originally posted by Lang Spoon View Post
                              NS, as Fussbudget says a time limited backstop is a contradiction in terms. The backstop is a last resort in case of no agreement on future relationship. Ireland won't tolerate anything beyond a mild fudge in wording on the codicil. And Ireland has more power in this negotiation than the UK. Unless Johnson is willing to sell out the DUP fucks like the Tories did to Carson almost a century ago. A border in the Irish Sea between the Nordies and Crazy Brexit Racist Island probably wouldn't meet too many Irish Govt objections.

                              Yes, I was just about to reply to Fussy. You're both absolutely right of course, a backstop that isn't open- ended isn't a proper backstop, but OTOH such a restrictive device, one that could be used by the other side in negotiations to force concessions, is obviously going to be problematic. Time-limiting it turns it into a semi-backstop and probably improves the chances of its non-deployment as a result of a more faithfully negotiated trading arrangement.

                              But hey, don't shoot the messenger. I'm just repeating what Adler has reported. Ultimately, if a WA is going to pass through the Commons, one side has to amend their position on the backstop.

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                                If the rest of the EU force Ireland to cave, things will get Very Messy. Varadkar and the West Brit Dub Thatcherites Big House Farmers and Prods Govt will be toast, and then there's them Up North setting things on fire.
                                Last edited by Lang Spoon; 13-06-2019, 22:52.

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                                  Well, if it happened it would be sold as a small, generous compromise or somesuch, I guess. It's certainly a test of EU solidarity and the relative importance of the issue to them.

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                                    Ireland have a vote on this in the Council, and the UK doesn't. And other states' patience is wearing gossamer thin with a UK govt where Ministers have already made intimations they will sign a deal only to renege later to get something better.
                                    Last edited by Lang Spoon; 14-06-2019, 00:17.

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                                      If the EU give in, what message is that to fucksticks like Salvini, Orban, le Pen etc? The UK is more likely to be made an example if it continues to be obdurate.

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                                        I'm sure it is. But a No Deal exit, uncertainty over their citizens' rights and a big hole in the budget might sway a few minds.

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                                          The budget hole ain't all that. And as far as citizens rights go, it will hurt the Uk far more to suddenly have hundreds of thousands of in the main NHS dependent retirees and pensioners repatriated from Greece or Spain or Blairy Tuscany/sunny France than it will damage the 26* having folk almost all healthy and of working age deported back to them.

                                          *an agreement has already been reached between UK and Ireland to continue the Common Travel Agreement.

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                                            Well, I doubt if we're that close to deportations! But any uncertainty over their citizens status when abroad is an issue for a country and not one to be dismissed lightly.

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                                              Originally posted by Nocturnal Submission View Post
                                              But any uncertainty over their citizens status when abroad is an issue for a country and not one to be dismissed lightly.
                                              Oh I don't know, the UK government doesn't seem all that worried about theirs.

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                                                Maybe they think that the citizens rights part of the WA could be quickly agreed with the EU after a No Deal exit. Maybe that's what the rest of the EU assume too and lessens their fears a bit.

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                                                  Or they just don't care. May certainly didn't. Look at the shit the Home Office have been pulling since 2016.

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                                                    Well, I guess we'll find out in the next few months.

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