Next Prime Minister

[ursus arctos]

He has forgotten who she is. All of his focus on trips now is on royalty: Brenda, the Japanese Emperor, etc.

He thinks that Louis XXXII will be hosting the festivities in Normandy.

[ursus arctos]

Meanwhile

[URL]https://twitter.com/antelava/status/1131838636591386626?s=21[/URL]

[Lang Spoon]

Galloway has sunk to the level everyone who has ever dealt with the cunt knew he was at.

[Nefertiti2]

https://twitter.com/wblau/status/1132037970054266886

[Snake Plissken]

Current wrinkle is a constitutional one - any new PM has to go to the Queen and say that they command a majority in the House. Which is patently not going to be the case. Now whether Brenda is going to take that statement as a purely ceremonial one will be interesting - after all, she didn't forgive May for lying to her on the same question after the 2017 GE.

[Rogin the Armchair fan]

The Tories will rally around a new PM, so presumably they'll be straight back on to the DUP with another billion quid and a false promise about no backstop.

[Evariste Euler Gauss]

Is there a guide to the exact arithmetic somewhere? I'm guessing that, now the Tories have lost 3 MPs to CUK, their majority even when combined with DUP is extremely thin (would it disappear if Sinn Fein took their seats, even?). How many further Tories would need to defect in protest at a Johnson win in order to eliminate the majority (assuming SF remain abstentionist of course)?

Edit: the Peterborough by-election is a factor of course. By no means a given that Labour will retain the seat.

[ad hoc]

their majority even when combined with DUP is extremely thin

Their majority without the DUP doesn't exist

[The Awesome Berbaslug!!!]

Sinn Fein aren't going to take their seats at westminster.

[Duncan Gardner]

Berba's right. Meanwhile, the DUP risk losing one of their 3 Belfast seats next time- total Unionist vote in BT South is only 35%

[The Awesome Berbaslug!!!]

Taking up their seats would split the party completely, and abstentionism and the name, are the only two things linking them to the original sinn fein, unless there's part of their manifesto simply wanting home rule under a dual monarchy arrangement like the Austro-hungarian compromise of 1867,

[Janik]

Their majority without the DUP doesn't exist

They don't even technically have one with the DUP now. With defections etc. they are on 313 MPs. Add the DUPs 10 is 323 out of nominally 650. It's still an effective majority of 3 though due to 7 of the 650 being from Sinn Fein.

[Janik]

Sorry, majority of 4. The 313 total excludes the Speaker. Who is nominally a Tory.

[DCI Harry Batt]

I do wish people would stop suggesting SF might take up their seats at Westminster.

[San Bernardhinault]

Harsh Brexit is the thing mostly likely to bring an end to the Union, and thus actually achieve SF's end goal. Why on earth would they take up their seats to protect the current status quo?

[Rogin the Armchair fan]

They wouldn't take up their seats even if it meant they could swing a vote on a proposed nuclear annihiliation of Ulster as a test for Trident. These are deeply ingrained principles.

[Duncan Gardner]

These are deeply ingrained principles.

Long established practice. Not the same thing.

SF claim they want to re-enter their minor local part of Britain's government. They may be lying but the stated intent is clear enough

[George C.]

Which is?

Plus principles and practice, merely an issue of minor semantics.
With numerous other examples in the political spectrum.

[Antepli Ejderha]

I think 8 MPs have now declared their interest, 3 of whom plan to leave on 31st October with or without a deal. Seeing as they won't be elected until the end of July that gives them three months to renegotiate.

[Etienne]

The extension until October specifically states that the Withdrawal Agreement can't be re-opened.

[ursus arctos]

As has been confirmed by any number of EU officials and Member State heads of government in the last week.

[Antepli Ejderha]

But that doesn't appeal to those they want to win over so they'll lie again. I'm really lost for words at how corrupt the UK is.

[ursus arctos]

Oh, absolutely yes.

The entire political dynamic in each of our countries has been of a significant minority that refuses to accept reality, in large part because a political class has found that it pays to encourage and reinforce just that mindset.

[Satchmo Distel]

What is the likelihood that enough Tories would vote against Johnson in a Vote of No Confidence to force an election? Would it actually be in Labour's interests to have an election at this point given the apparent rejection by the voters of "fuzzy" positions on the EU?

[ursus arctos]

That is a corollary to the question I've been asking on the European Elections thread. I struggle to see how one gets to a GE.