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    Of course, Johnson's majority isn't that large. There's a slight chance a Johnson-led Tory party could win a GE while he loses his own seat.

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      Originally posted by Sporting View Post
      Are there any Tory MPs in marginal constituencies on the point of, er, well, passing on to a better life?
      No, they're all going to spend eternity sucking demons' cocks in the burning fires of hell.

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        Nef, could you please show your work for "likely"?

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          There'll be a new leader bounce. There usually is. Johnson might calculate that he can bring Farage's supporters back into the fold and rout an opposition bitterly divided between Centrists and Leftists (primarily but by no means exclusively over Brexit).

          An election might also give him a chance to preen and strut and generally show-off, which he prefers to anything that might resemble work.

          He can still be defeated, because he's nowhere near as popular as some think he is, but it'll require some smart and energetic work.

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            I agree that that is possible. I don't see it being likely.

            Nor do I get above 50 percent if I add in the chance of No Confidence.

            But I remain interested in hearing from those who think otherwise.

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              Originally posted by ursus arctos View Post
              Nef, could you please show your work for "likely"?
              See here

              [URL]https://twitter.com/davies_will/status/1139059968815042561?s=21[/URL]

              It won’t just be a “ new leader bounce”. The media and Johnson are already in a mutually productive relationship. He is a known quantity. And seen very much as one of their own, plus he has the whole heated commitment of 85 percent of the press & TV They couldn’t make may charismatic.

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                Plus a No Deal as a result of the EU refusing further extensions will serve him very well.

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                  I guess we just disagree as to probabilities, then.

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                    Originally posted by Moonlight shadow View Post
                    Plus a No Deal as a result of the EU refusing further extensions will serve him very well.
                    That I agree with, but the proposition seems to be a pre-Brexit GE

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                      I don't see any pre-Brexit GE unless he needs an excuse to ask for an extension (which is possible)

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                        I'm not at all sure he would get one even with a GE. As you've noted, there is a lot of sentiment on the Continent just to get the UK out, and it takes only one member state to say no.

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                          Pretty certain he would win a vote of no confidence, helped by Labour no dealers and most Tory rebels would chicken out.

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                            So we are (unsurprisingly) on the same page, then

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                              Originally posted by ursus arctos View Post
                              I'm not at all sure he would get one even with a GE. As you've noted, there is a lot of sentiment on the Continent just to get the UK out, and it takes only one member state to say no.
                              If that Le Monde editorial is a fair reflection of Macron view, which is quite likely, the moment Johnson take charge, the UK will be in deep shit because not only they will not extend but they will seek to inflict maximum disruption.

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                                Originally posted by E10 Rifle View Post
                                Cameron bottling TV debates in 2015 worked out Ok for him
                                Sure. I only noted that it is not a risk free strategy.

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                                  I think the Tories could well stand a good chance in an autumn election, but they'd have to be incredibly courageous to try it after 2017.

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                                    Unless all the remaining "I'm not Boris" candidates coagulate around one of themselves by next week this is going to get as tedious as Strictly Come Dancing. Ironically another contest only propped up by ghastly old Tories with nothing else to do.

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                                      Well, if there is one word we can use to describe Johnson, it is "courageous".

                                      (Sub: Please check.)

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                                        So.

                                        Where are we holding the thon to drown our sorrows after the fucker wins the contest?

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                                          Abroad...

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                                            Missed ye last Saturday Mr P (if you're in the habit of popping into Donny services for breakfast)

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                                              Originally posted by Snake Plissken View Post
                                              Well, if there is one word we can use to describe Johnson, it is "courageous".

                                              (Sub: Please check.)
                                              Haha. I think some people do see him as courageous, and weirdly this has somehow been boosted by the endless series of chickenshit gutless things he's done.

                                              Comment


                                                Originally posted by Snake Plissken View Post
                                                Well, if there is one word we can use to describe Johnson, it is "courageous".

                                                (Sub: Please check.)


                                                sub?

                                                How many years is it since you last worked in Grubb Street?

                                                Gone the way of the fluffer and the lamplighter I'm afraid.

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                                                  Don't blame me. Blame reading too much Amiga Power in the 90's.

                                                  Anyway.

                                                  https://twitter.com/sanglesey/status/1139145417021673472

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                                                    Originally posted by ursus arctos View Post

                                                    Then question now is how many Tory MPs will risk their careers by voting no confidence in order to try to stop No Deal.
                                                    I'm still not convinced Johnson will drag us in to a No Deal exit, despite (or because) of how much he says he's willing to do so.

                                                    As Nef is, I think, alluding to above that means he'll be in charge and have to own the disaster it will clearly become.

                                                    That said, I don't think he'll get anything better from the EU27 than May did, I'm imagining he might try and sell some cosmetic retouching of the current deal as a great victory for his negotiating skills and belief in Britain.

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