Next Prime Minister

[Antepli Ejderha]

That map is bollocks. Luckily.

[Satchmo Distel]

Those stats are just going to frighten the Tories into going full bore on Hard Brexit. They won't care that the combined Bxp-Con-UKIP vote there is only 44%; they will see the 44% as their target by adopting the BXP position.

The Tory remainers or Soft Brexiters are running out of space in which to operate electorally. They won't get to 40% by going to the centre because they have left that too late. A Con-Lab deal was the last chance of a Soft Brexit and May chose to sabotage that because she'd prefer No Deal to a Labour-friendly deal.

[Nocturnal Submission]

I'm intrigued by the Greens winning the Isle of Wight. Icke isn't still their candidate, is he?

[Diable Rouge]

Those stats are just going to frighten the Tories into going full bore on Hard Brexit. They won't care that the combined Bxp-Con-UKIP vote there is only 44%; they will see the 44% as their target by adopting the BXP position.

The Tory remainers or Soft Brexiters are running out of space in which to operate electorally. They won't get to 40% by going to the centre because they have left that too late. A Con-Lab deal was the last chance of a Soft Brexit and May chose to sabotage that because she'd prefer No Deal to a Labour-friendly deal.

Perhaps AdC can best relate whether the parallels with Canada in 1993 are accurate?

[Amor de Cosmos]

Not really, but in at least one aspect they are. Mulroney's Progressive Conservatives (a mutually exclusive binary if ever there was one) were wiped out primarily because of two controversial and electorially unannounced pieces of legislation. the Canada/US free trade agreement (later to become NAFTA,) and the Goods and Services Tax (kinda similar to VAT in the UK.) they were a spectacularly arrogant own goals, and widely unpopular, which led to many PC MPs to move over to the Western based Reform Party, later to become the Canadian Alliance Party, and eventually the Conservative Party of Canada, as it is today. Western discontent had been bubbling along for decades with nowhere to go, except the PC's,until 1993. This is where their is a similarity with the present UK situation, ie: the UK Tories = the PCs, and the Brexit Party = Reform. The CPofC remains Western based today, and more right-wing populist than the PCs ever were, but in Canada there's no centre-right party for the old 'Pink' Tories to go to, whereas in Westminster many could join the Lib Dems.

That's probably more information than asked for but I hope it's clear enough.

[Lurgee]

For some time, I've seen Labour's failure to back remain as a means to breathe life into the corpse of the Lib Dems. I don't consider Labour's plan to include this, but a side effect of that policy is that the Lib Dems becoming more competitive fucks the Tories much more than it fucks Labour. as it makes battleground seats in the South of England in play in ways that Labour couldn't get close to.

Ed Milliband pursued a '35% strategy'; perhaps Labour are trying a '25% strategy' this time?

[Duncan Gardner]

I'm intrigued by the Greens winning the Isle of Wight. Icke isn't still their candidate, is he?

Vix Lowthion. She was also on the Euro list for the South East.

As for the ex-Coventry defender, we don't give a Dietmar Bruck

[Sean of the Shed]

https://twitter.com/gracepetrie/status/1134830356627107840?s=20

[Vicarious Thrillseeker]

As for the ex-Coventry defender, we don't give a Dietmar Bruck

Goalkeeper.

[Nocturnal Submission]

Vix Lowthion. She was also on the Euro list for the South East.

As for the ex-Coventry defender, we don't give a Dietmar Bruck

I've just seen the 2017 result. I had no idea that the Green vote was so strong in the constituency.

[George C.]

Goalkeeper.

Hereford more notably.

[Antepli Ejderha]

Leadsom says she's for a managed no deal. The EU have already said this is impossible.

[Satchmo Distel]

Raab's odds are a bit wild. 4-1 to 10-1 depending on the bookie. Leadsom is favoured above him by some. Top two are Johnson v Gove.

[Diable Rouge]

Raab's odds are a bit wild. 4-1 to 10-1 depending on the bookie. Leadsom is favoured above him by some. Top two are Johnson v Gove.

And bizarre, given Gove's history, that he has actually become one of the realists, if his pitch today is any indicator.

[Nefertiti2]

And bizarre, given Gove's history, that he has actually become one of the realists, if his pitch today is any indicator.

the only thing he is trying to be realistic about is imrproving his odds of becoming Prime Minister.

[David Agnew]

Raab's odds are a bit wild. 4-1 to 10-1 depending on the bookie. Leadsom is favoured above him by some. Top two are Johnson v Gove.

The bookies are trying to balance a low stakes book that's been open since May became Prime Minister. Odds will be both volatile, and not have any basis in reality.

Ruth Davidson was 20/1 a few weeks back, despite not being an MP, and therefore not being eligible.

[Del Usory]

Jeremy "Rhyming Slang" Hunt

"Culloden"

https://mobile.twitter.com/Jeremy_Hu...14158288396288

[The Red Max]

Of all the Scots place names beginning with C, the slimy prick chooses a satellite housing estate to Inverness.
Culloden, the devastating crushing of the Scottish rebellion by the Government.
Or "Cuhluddin" as Jeremy pronounces it.
Symbolic stuff, "precious union" my fucking arse.

[Satchmo Distel]

This is now very dangerous; Johnson hinting at letting US capital into the NHS if he's PM.

[Antepli Ejderha]

This is now very dangerous; Johnson hinting at letting US capital into the NHS if he's PM.

I saw in the Guardian it was Woody Johnson saying this.

Edit: the US Ambassador to the UK not Boris Johnson the disgraced former minister and mayor.

[Satchmo Distel]

Apologies. Posting after drinking wine.

[Diable Rouge]

http://twitter.com/BorderIrish/status/1135503876566769664

[Satchmo Distel]

"including Raab, McVey and Johnson"

They knew it was going to fail, though. It was just to make it look like they wanted to stop the UK crashing out 2 days later.

[Antepli Ejderha]

Apologies. Posting after drinking wine.

No need as it's almost certainly true. The US want in on the NHS in a post Brexit dystopia.

[ursus arctos]

So reportedly Raab refused to rule out proroguing Parliament in order to prevent it from stopping a No Deal exit on hustings today.