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    Next Prime Minister

    Nicky Morgan - Nicky fucking Morgan!!!! - has already maneouvred herself into place by saying to Channel 4 that it "would send the wrong message" if one of the two candidates the party puts forward was not a woman.

    Fucking hell, I'd rather have the choice narrowed down to Michael Gove and one of the aliens off of Independence Day than Nicky fucking Morgan.

    #2
    Next Prime Minister

    On BBC World News, Nick Whatshisface has just put it to Iain Duncan Smith that 'a bunch of Tory activists are going to decide the next Prime Minister,' and IDS's reply was, 'well it used to be just a bunch of Tory MPs, so it's getting wider.'

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      #3
      Next Prime Minister

      That bit of it is due to the process not catching up with the Presidentification of UK politics post-Blair. We elect MPs, not a PM. Though the differently daft ways both parties currently elect their leaders has muddied the waters further. When Major took over from Thatcher, no one thought it was particularly illegitimate.

      Crabb, I reckon.

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        #4
        Next Prime Minister

        The next pm will be a loathsome extreme right wing scumbag , someone so bad they will make Cameron look good. Does it really matter what their name is?

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          #5
          Next Prime Minister

          All that matters is an effective opposition.

          Fuck.

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            #6
            Next Prime Minister

            I reckon it'll be Thereasa May.

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              #7
              Next Prime Minister

              Paul S wrote: I reckon it'll be Thereasa May.
              While she seems the "logical" choice, why would she want to take charge of an economy in free-fall? I propose this TCN:



              with his Chancellor:

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                #8
                Next Prime Minister

                I wonder whether the new broom will drop austerity, like Osborne did for a while, and say "see, you said would be worse! And Labour would borrow more"

                Nicky Morgan must be keen to get away from the mess at schools. Crabb probably feels the same at the DWP. May is the only one with wheels not obviously falling off.

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                  #9
                  Next Prime Minister

                  Since the Brexit will not magically give every voter their promised pony, the next PM will be deeply unpopular in a matter of months.

                  So you should probably hope it's the most obnoxious candidate running (I've no idea who that will be, spoilt for choice I expect).

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                    #10
                    Next Prime Minister

                    Osborne's threat of a July austerity budget is also a gift to the new guard. They'll just say, for now, "we'll be having none of that" before eventually proceeding at pace with Offshore Haven-ageddon

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                      #11
                      Next Prime Minister

                      well, the first thing that the next tory prime minister is going to have to do is call an election. Because they need to get that election out of the way, before they start to negotiate with the EU, because it's going to become very apparent, very early in that process that they're not going to be able to do anything about migration.

                      Not that they actually want to do anything about migration. Your economy would fall apart without it.

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                        #12
                        Next Prime Minister

                        Well the new PM can't go to the country immediately because of the small matter of the Fixed Term Parliaments Act which means the general election is fixed for May 2020. I guess the act can be repealed or new legislation brought in to supersede it, but that will take time.

                        Beyond that, I guess it depends on the state of the economy and what happens with Labour. If the economy stays reasonably afloat and Corbyn survives this, then I think they'll go for an election next spring. If the economy tanks and some big beast like Umunna or Jarvis becomes Labour leader then a new PM will just try and sit the storm out.

                        There might also be election fatigue to consider. We've just come off a huge great campaign, we had a General Election last year, and Scotland has also had the indy ref and Holyrood elections since 2014.

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                          #13
                          Next Prime Minister

                          I ain't no fancy pants constitutional lawyer, but if they trigger the "two years" clause, then it's hard to see how an election could take place during that period.

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                            #14
                            Next Prime Minister

                            It's not the two year EU thing, it's the fact that a 2020 election is hardwired in, unless the party that forms the majority government votes to oust its own Prime Minister.

                            The scenario of an early election would be the 306 Tory MPs and then their party members voting for a new leader, and having gone through all that, immediately voting they had no confidence in him or her. It seems unlikely.

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                              #15
                              Next Prime Minister

                              Why would a new PM risk an election where he/she might immediately lose office when the alternative is almost 4 years of power as an unelected PM?

                              Normally an early election is called on the pretext of "to calm market uncertainty" but that red herring has been permanently exploded by the fact that the new PM would probably have been part of the Leave campaign that has just fucked the markets.

                              Comment


                                #16
                                Next Prime Minister

                                I refer you to the above. The option of the PM "calling" an election is not even on the table.

                                Unless they rip that bit of our constitution up as well, Hell, fuck it, no-one would probably bat an eyelid. 80,000 pages of UK legislation are going to have to be revised, repealed or replaced, why not chuck that one in too, eh?

                                Comment


                                  #17
                                  Next Prime Minister

                                  If the new PM wants a general election, they'll find a way to do it via the Commons. The act was only introduced to keep the Lib Dems happy, it's not like it's the centrepiece of a constitution or anything.

                                  Comment


                                    #18
                                    Next Prime Minister

                                    They will absolutely call a GE. Can turn over the fixed term thing in the course of normal parliamentary business. And Labour will have no choice but to go along with it.

                                    There will be a GE before this time next year. I reckon they will delay till the spring rather than go in the autumn, but that's all.

                                    Comment


                                      #19
                                      Next Prime Minister

                                      Satchmo Distel wrote: Why would a new PM risk an election where he/she might immediately lose office when the alternative is almost 4 years of power as an unelected PM?
                                      Oh, if it looks like there's a chance that Labour won't get horribly anally hammered, they'll hang on. But it seems a remote contingency.

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                                        #20
                                        Next Prime Minister

                                        A no confidence vote or a 66% vote from MPs can bring an early election under the Fixed Term act.

                                        They don't need to repeal it. Although they might want to.

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                                          #21
                                          Next Prime Minister

                                          Yeah, I think the 66% is the most likely route.

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                                            #22
                                            Next Prime Minister

                                            But that would require at least 3 parties all thinking that a GE would improve their position.

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                                              #23
                                              Next Prime Minister

                                              So 66% is needed for an election but only 50% + 1 to leave the EU.

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                                                #24
                                                Next Prime Minister

                                                Etienne wrote: But that would require at least 3 parties all thinking that a GE would improve their position.
                                                Up to a point, Lord Copper. It means that no party can collapse the parliament for its own advantage. It now must dress that party advantage in terms on unavowable national crisis that it would render the people who oppose such contemplation by yer voters would be at an immediate disadvantage in subsequent election that they would rather fold than hold.

                                                Which means the battle is over an articulation of a national interest. Corbyn has been ****ing awfully slow off the blocks.

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                                                  #25
                                                  Next Prime Minister

                                                  Etienne wrote: But that would require at least 3 parties all thinking that a GE would improve their position.
                                                  Not necessarily. I would assume non-incumbent parties would always like to take a chance. The SNP probably wouldn't want to keep the current parliament even if they'd lose seats. If the Tories feel a need to call an election, I can't see it being resisted by anyone else.

                                                  Of course, a no confidence vote only needs 50%+1, and you could possibly get that tomorrow for either a Cameron or a Gove led government, given the internal divisions in the Tory party.

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