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    Originally posted by Nocturnal Submission View Post
    Could this be on?
    With the current numbers (95.04% of districts reported, Lula at 47.63% of votes), Lula would need 95.5% of all remaining votes to win in the first round.

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      The numbers have just gone up. Lula will now need 100.8% of all remaining votes to win in the first round. I don't think it's going to happen.

      edit: the good news is that, in absolute numbers, Lula is 4.5 million votes up from Bolsonaro. That is a lot of votes.

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        Originally posted by Wouter D View Post
        The numbers have just gone up. Lula will now need 100.8% of all remaining votes to win in the first round. I don't think it's going to happen.

        Defeatist!!!

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          Originally posted by Nocturnal Submission View Post
          Defeatist!!!
          Yeah, I'm a cold, hard data miner.

          The number has now risen to over 114%.

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            You'd think Lula would probably increase the margin in the second round unless something dreadful happens in the next four weeks.

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              The Guardian's interactive map is interesting from how different it is than the US or GB with the major cities and population centres going hard for Bolsonasshole and 2/3rds rural parts going for Lula. I guess Lula realy mopped up with the middle-of-the-pack cities, and absolutely housing Bahia which is the 4th largest.

              But cleanest enviornmental city Curitiba and Parana going for Bastardaro by 20 points?

              Bolsonasshole States
              Sao Paulo - 47.71-40.89
              Rio de Janiero - 51.08 - 40.69
              Espirito Santo - 52.23 - 40.4
              Parana - 55.26 - 35.99
              Santa Catarina - 62.21 - 29.54
              Rio Grande do Sul - 48.89 - 42.28
              Mato Grosso do Sul - 52.7 - 39.04
              Goias - 52.16 - 39.51
              DF - 51.65 - 36.85
              Mato Grosso - 59.85 - 34.39
              Rondonia - 64.37 - 28.97
              Acre - 62.53 - 29.24
              Roraima - 69.57 - 23.05

              Lula States
              Amazonas - 49.4 - 42.95
              Amapa - 45.67 - 43.41
              Para - 52-16 - 40.31
              Maranhao - 68.57 - 26.25
              Tocantins - 50.4 - 44
              Piaui - 74.18 - 19.96
              Ceara - 65.88 - 25.4
              Rio Grande Do Norte - 62.98 - 31.02
              Paraiba - 64.21 - 29.62
              Pernambuco - 65.26 - 29.92
              Alagoas - 56.5 - 36.05
              Sergipe - 63.82 - 29.16
              Bahia - 69.65 - 24.37
              Minas Gerais - 48.28 - 43.6

              Simone Tebet and Ciro Gomes are both left-of-center and finished 3rd and 4th, so hopefully their supporters will go for Lula. In which case he should be okay election-wise. Military coup-wise is another story.
              Screen Shot 2022-10-02 at 9.39.33 PM.png
              Attached Files

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                Oops.

                Apparently the Tibet and Gomes voters went last-minute for Cuntsanaro.

                Hope they see the error of their ways in 29 days.

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                  By all accounts, Paraguay is getting a new party and a new candidate running next year.

                  Screen Shot 2022-10-02 at 10.02.31 PM.png

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                    Originally posted by jason voorhees View Post
                    Oops.

                    Apparently the Tibet and Gomes voters went last-minute for Cuntsanaro.

                    Hope they see the error of their ways in 29 days.
                    Tebet says she'll announce her opinion on who her supporters should vote for in the runoff in the next 48 hours (she said this a few hours ago), though said her mind was already made up. Gomes says he's 'very worried' about the state the country is in, but that doesn't really tell us much about which way he'll go, given we (assuming you know as much about them as I do, which is nothing) don't know what direction he's coming at that wording from. I await cantagalo's better-informed opinion. I also await the opinion of a Brazilian friend of my girlfriend (of both of us, really, but she knows him better because she worked with him), who I've asked where Tebet's voters are likely to go but who hasn't responded yet.

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                      https://twitter.com/Martin_Abrams/status/1576822926082723841?s=20&t=Sr7t3YfOhG6gLGn4r1LSeA

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                        It also feels like the BBC, NYT and other western media are covering this not as "Bolsonaro lost the first round" or "Lula won and almost got an absolute majority despite this being a multi-candidate system", but instead just keep reporting "Bolsanaro did better than expected" and "Bolsonaro out-performed his polls". It feels decidedly one-sided in the reporting.

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                          Bolsonaro did massively outperform the polling, which is something he has in common with many other right-wing candidates in elections all over the world, and I think it's worth asking why that might be and how polling people can get a more accurate picture.

                          Our mate replied this afternoon and said whose voters will go to whom is quite complex and he doesn't fully understand things, but that Tebet is expected to support Lula, and Ciro (the guy who finished fourth) isn't expected to support anyone explicitly. He sent me that about 13 hours ago, and from what I can see on the Globo website, since then Ciro has said he'll fall in with his party, PDT, who are negotiating with Lula to offer their suport (I'm guessing this means their elected governors would support Lula's government if he ends up winning, in which case it would be in the party's interest to tell its voters to vote for Lula). Tebet's people have reportedly said her support for Lula 'depends on talks with [him]'. If I'm reading this right (I can read a bit of Portuguese but nowhere near as fluently as Spanish), if those talks don't go well she's more likely to either be critical of both candidates or declare she's neutral and leave it at that than she is to support Bolsonaro. Apparently her situation is complicated by the fact that two of the parties who were part of the coalition supporting her presidential bid would find it hard to support Lula openly.

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                            Have you seen turnout numbers?

                            In the US, polling errors of that sort are almost always down to flawed assumptions about turnout and its composition.

                            Comment


                              There was a hypothesis back in the 90s that some right-wing voters don't like to show their true colours to pollsters. Alternatively their true feelings only come out as they walk into the voting area. However the notorious right-wing wins of our time are usually preceded by a late shift in the polling; although the right-winger was still expected to lose, there was a narrowing of the gap in the last week. Don't know if that happened here and, if so, it will continue to narrow.

                              It's also saddening to note that I can't recall any instances of the left-wing candidate or party having an unexpected win. Truman over Dewey maybe but Truman was the incumbent and not particularly on the left AFAIK (as shown by the fact that there was a left-wing alternative that year).
                              Last edited by Satchmo Distel; 05-10-2022, 02:45.

                              Comment


                                Originally posted by ursus arctos View Post
                                Have you seen turnout numbers?

                                In the US, polling errors of that sort are almost always down to flawed assumptions about turnout and its composition.
                                Voting's obligatory from age 18 in Brazil, though (optional if you're 16 or 17), which probably mitigates this to a large extent.

                                Comment


                                  Ciro's party have put their support behind Lula for the runoff, and Ciro himself has said (in an announcement that didn't name Lula, and in which he said both candidates were unsatisfactory) that he's following that position. The MDB (Tebet's party) seems to have four factions split geographically, with two going for each runoff candidate, and as such is expected to announce neutrality for the runoff, but Tebet herself is expected to announce that she'll be supporting Lula. And Senator José Serra, who ran against Lula when the latter was voted in as president for the first time back in 2002, has said he's supporting Lula in the runoff, although in the runoff for governor of São Paulo he'll be supporting Bolsonaro's candidate. Bolsonaro's received support from a few governors, one of whom if I'm reading correctly is the outgoing governor of São Paulo (it says he failed to make the second round).

                                  Comment


                                    Originally posted by Satchmo Distel View Post
                                    There was a hypothesis back in the 90s that some right-wing voters don't like to show their true colours to pollsters. Alternatively their true feelings only come out as they walk into the voting area. However the notorious right-wing wins of our time are usually preceded by a late shift in the polling; although the right-winger was still expected to lose, there was a narrowing of the gap in the last week. Don't know if that happened here and, if so, it will continue to narrow.

                                    It's also saddening to note that I can't recall any instances of the left-wing candidate or party having an unexpected win. Truman over Dewey maybe but Truman was the incumbent and not particularly on the left AFAIK (as shown by the fact that there was a left-wing alternative that year).

                                    Bolsonaro's vote had been climbing in the opinion polls and there was a late surge, but the gap between him and Lulu had remained fairly static at 10% or so. The actual results showed a 5% gap, with Bolsonaro 5% higher than expected. Lula's vote was bang on:


                                    1500px-Opinion_polling_for_the_2022_Brazilian_presidential_election_%28First_round%29.svg.png

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                                      As expected, Tebet's confirmed her support for Lula in the second round, saying that while she has criticisms of Lula, Bolsonaro represents a threat to Brazilian democracy and carries the risk of a 'white dictatorship' if he's voted back in.

                                      Polling company Ipec has Lula at 51% to Bolsonaro's 43% in the second round, or 55% to 45% after discounting white/spoiled votes and undecideds, which is the methodology the electoral commission will use to declare the winner. Ipec is the institute which most got it in the neck for underestimating Bolsonaro's percentage in the first round.

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                                        So, the final vote is this Sunday and the polls are a damned sight tighter than I'd like:


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                                          The bastard is going to win isn't he.

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                                            He is certainly going to contest the vote if he loses narrowly...

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                                              He is certainly going to contest the vote if he loses narrowly...

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                                                https://twitter.com/tomphillipsin/status/1586746604916248577?s=20&t=CSmWk1TsZJ8OheYWviQBuA

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                                                  https://twitter.com/DLBiller/status/1586715954087698438?s=20&t=OPz60lQk0x4whpg4Qr43iw

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                                                    https://twitter.com/BenjaminFogel/status/1586756727097155584?s=20&t=B1mMXEHMhBIY6eIP0X125w

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