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    German regional elections

    So we now have exit polls from the 3 German federal Laender which had elections today: Sachsen-Anhalt in the east, Baden Wuerttemberg and the Rhenish Palatinate, as it used to be known in English many decades ago.

    Link here to Spiegel main page (in German but coloured bar charts of the exit poll results are easy to follow even for non-German speakers). (The link is to their "front page" so it probably won't show that stuff after today)

    http://www.spiegel.de/

    A few observations:

    - as DR noted on the Europe's Doomed thread, big votes for the AfD (the closest thing in spirit to our UKIP): predictable but nonetheless depressing and problematic for others trying to build coalitions. 12 per cent ish in the two western regions, 23 per cent in the more socially challenging east.

    - the days of the CDU and the SPD being the "big two" who could happily alternate with minor coalition partners nationally and in most regions seem to be well and truly gone

    - Greens are the largest party now in the state of BW, which is just mind-blowing. It was an absolute fortress of the conservative CDU for decades. But sadly their coalition with the SPD no longer has a majority due to collapse in SPD vote.

    #2
    German regional elections

    The former East Germany really does still seem rather divorced politically from the Western states - the NDP managed to gain representation there in recent decades, so seems to be a "plague on all your houses" spirit there in frustration at the lack of economic progress. RTE's excellent World Report radio series detailed how the central kernel of historical CDU leadership was "don't get outflanked on your right", but the decline of the FDP as a centre-right alternative has perhaps made recent developments inevitable.

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      #3
      German regional elections

      The idea that the AfD has overtaken the SPD in Baden-Württemberg is incredible.

      Looks like Winfried Kretschmann of the Greens will remain minister-president (= provincial premier) in a minority government or in an uneasy coalition with the CDU.

      I like the name of the state's AfD deputy leader Alexander Gauland, whom I propose to rename Alexander Gauleiter.

      A big collapse for the Greens in Rheinland-Pfalz, from 15% to 5%, but a good showing for the SPD, which remains the strongest party. But the Red-Green coalition is now impossible. A coalition with the Greens and FDP looks the best-case scenario; alternatively a great coalition with the CDU will be necessary.

      In Sachsen-Anhalt the CDU will have to go into a coalition with SPD, FDP and Greens -- though the latter two are presently teetering around 5%, so might not make the cut.

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        #4
        German regional elections

        ARD seat estimates:

        Rheinland-Pfalz: SPD 40, CDU 35, AfD 13, FDP 7, Greens 6.

        Sachsen-Anhalt: CDU 36, AfD 29, Linke 19, SDP 12, Greens 6.

        Baden-Württemberg: Green 46, CDU 39, AfD 22, SDP 19, FDP 12.

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          #5
          Good news in the mayoral election in Chemnitz


          https://twitter.com/derJamesJackson/status/1315604842866409473?s=20

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