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    #76
    Jittery markets

    Deutsche Bank always gets my full attention too, as they are paying my bills via their UK pension scheme (which of course is ringfenced & fully funded, blah blah).

    [DBAG settled out of court with Becchetti for what it reported in an annal report footnote was a 'non-material' figure in the scheme of its overall finances (not disclosed by either party but reported online to be in the region of €20million), whilst the big ticket item was with an Italian energy firm dispute that is not confirmed anywhere as settled or paid after the Albanian courts ordered ENEL to pay a massive €440mm compensation]

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      #77
      Jittery markets

      Not to minimise it, but there is no way that 20 million is material to a firm like Deutsche. You could even add a zero (though that would be a closer call).

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        #78
        Jittery markets

        slackster wrote: I switched out of equities completely in December and am feeling a bit smug about it. But then I've called the last few bear markets correctly...although I've had about 17 "Panic NOW!" moments in all over that period, so I'm still in Chimp Aiming At A Dartboard territory.
        So you're a panicky pensioner market-timer?

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          #79
          Jittery markets

          Deutsche itself isn't in much of a new mess, so much as its investors. I'll never understand why people who buy capital instruments act so shocked when it looks like there might be a slim chance that they'll actually be used as capital. Or for that matter, why they're willing to buy them at prices that imply they never will. At least in DB's case there's an issue around disclosure of the data that would allow people to measure that risk, but everyone knew that when they were issued and they still bought them at debt-like yields.

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            #80
            Jittery markets

            Quite

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              #81
              Jittery markets

              I should Coco.

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                #82
                Jittery markets

                I dunno

                Keira Knightley is some serious competition.

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                  #83
                  Jittery markets

                  The FTSE's dropped another 2% since trading opened this morning.

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                    #84
                    Jittery markets

                    2% in a day is barely anything at the moment. Doing a rough and ready bit of Excel, it's comfortably within two standard deviations based on the last couple of months of daily movements. I count 10 separate 2%+ swings on the FTSE 100 since early November.

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                      #85
                      Jittery markets

                      Swedish central bank has cut interest rates from -0.35% to -0.50%.

                      Don't know how much longer the Swedish central bank can do this for. Swedish housing market is up 20% year on year due to the abundance of cheap money and the government is doing nothing to intervene.

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                        #86
                        Jittery markets

                        That's not strictly true. Sweden was the first European country to use macroprudential brakes on mortgage lending, namely an LTV cap and a risk weight floor. There's a mandatory amortisation requirement coming into force this year.

                        It's also, I think, the only European country with a countercyclical buffer set above zero.

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                          #87
                          Jittery markets

                          That's correct, LTV is capped at 85% but the L part is made up of rubbish. 40% of Swedes don't amoritise at all, and those who do have a repayment schedule that takes, on average, 140 years.

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                            #88
                            Jittery markets

                            Compare that to the UK, though where we have a half-hearted LTV cap on owner-occupied mortgages (up to 15% of new origination can exceed the cap) and as yet nothing at all on buy-to-let.

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                              #89
                              Jittery markets

                              antoine polus wrote: That's correct, LTV is capped at 85% but the L part is made up of rubbish. 40% of Swedes don't amoritise at all, and those who do have a repayment schedule that takes, on average, 140 years.
                              Wow that's crazy, interest-only mortgages should be illegal.

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                                #90
                                Jittery markets

                                Well, they will be.

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                                  #91
                                  Jittery markets

                                  Not in the US

                                  The realtors are one of the strongest lobbies in Washington, and the home builders aren't far behind.

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                                    #92
                                    Jittery markets

                                    I meant in Sweden.

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                                      #93
                                      Jittery markets

                                      The new rule is that they should pay off 1% per year if the LTV is over 50% (so a 100 year mortgage) and 2% per year if the LTV is over 70% (so a 50 year mortgage). And the new rule doesn't apply to new builds.

                                      Still very bubbly.

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                                        #94
                                        Jittery markets

                                        Sweden taking us further down the "fall" bit of this particular rise-fall sequence:

                                        https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Rise_and_Fall_of_Freedom_of_Contract

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                                          #95
                                          Jittery markets

                                          West Texas Intermediate Crude went up 11.4 per cent in one day today. (up 2.98 to $29.19 per barrel). 11.4 per cent! In one day. That is just mental. Brent Crude went up 9.6 per cent.

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