Next Labour Leader (and Deputy) - the vote

[Jimski]

So those of you with a vote in this process - for whom are you intending to vote?

I'm voting Corbyn for leader. Not sure if I'll bother with a second preference, although it would probably be Cooper if I did. Marginally over Burnham.

Eagle then Watson for deputy.

[Rogin the Armchair fan]

Next Labour Leader (and Deputy) - the vote

Cooper's probably going to win on second preference votes. So think carefully about that.

[DCI Harry Batt]

Next Labour Leader (and Deputy) - the vote

I'm hoping there are lots of Jezza-only votes.

Where do you get your "probably" from, Rogin?

[E10 Rifle]

Next Labour Leader (and Deputy) - the vote

Leader:
1 Corbyn, 2 Burnham
Deputy
1 Eagle 2 Watson

London Mayor
Still undecided

[Toro Toro]

Next Labour Leader (and Deputy) - the vote

Rogin the Armchair Fan wrote: Cooper's probably going to win on second preference votes. So think carefully about that.

Eh?

Unless Corbyn's eliminated early - which now looks very unlikely - then who you put in as second pref won't make any difference.

If the final pair are Cooper and Corbyn, a second-pref for Cooper on a Corbyn ballot is no use whatsoever to her; it only goes in her column when he's knocked out.

[Toro Toro]

Next Labour Leader (and Deputy) - the vote

I remain undecided between Cooper and Corbyn. Tbh, I wouldn't be distraught with any of them. Even Kendall has started to impress me (though her supporters could not possibly have conducted themselves worse); she's clearly absolutely sincere about tackling inequality and injustice, even if we have very different ideas about what to do about it. Indeed, she seems rather closer to Ed M than Blair in that regard. Not that she'll be anywhere near it. But I think any of them could do a good job now.

Main reservation regarding Corbyn remains his ability to lead the party, and to carry all groups within it together as a coherent opposition. His record of rebelling, and consequent deep personal unpopularity in some quarters, makes that more difficult to achieve than it should be.

I don't think Cooper has that problem, I think she's much harder for the press to pigeonhole without coming across like vile sexists (at a minimum, there's a line there that they nead to tread carefully), I think she can probably do a better job at simultaneously speaking to swing-voters' concerns in key marginals without selling the farm on policy (the substantive distance between hers, Burnham's and Corbyn's economic platforms is far, far smaller than most people seem to think), and will be a much tougher foe for Cameron in the parliament.

I prefer Corbyn on most issues of policy, but we're electing a Leader of the Opposition, not a Leader of My Heart.

On deputies, I don't know. To some degree it depends on who the leader's going to be. I find Creasy very impressive, and while I've ideological reservations, I think she'd complement Corbyn very well, and help to carry along the factions of the party suspicious of him. I like Watson a lot, I realise that I should like Eagle more than I do, and living where I do I've a soft spot for Ben B. Have I missed someone?

[E10 Rifle]

Next Labour Leader (and Deputy) - the vote

Can we make this just the "who I'm voting for" thread, and do the debating on the other one?

(The "hard left" there, stamping on free speech and democracy)

[Toro Toro]

Next Labour Leader (and Deputy) - the vote

That's what I was doing.

[Calvert]

Next Labour Leader (and Deputy) - the vote

1 Eagle 2 Watson

Bloody golf is never off telly.

Come on Corbyn
Make us un-hate the British Labour Party for a while at least.

[Bored Of Education]

Next Labour Leader (and Deputy) - the vote

For some reason, Watson is at Fortress Twerton this Sunday morning and I am pigeonholing him to hold up a Bath City Bid poster. Any question you want me to ask him (aside from "Are you going to nationalise everything?")

I am afraid that I had no clue that the deputy leadership election was going on as well until last week.

Anyway, as you were.

[Rogin the Armchair fan]

Next Labour Leader (and Deputy) - the vote

Rogin the Armchair Fan wrote:

Cooper's probably going to win on second preference votes. So think carefully about that.

I'm hoping there are lots of Jezza-only votes.

Where do you get your "probably" from, Rogin?

Alright, let's say Cooper may well win on second preference votes. So again I say think carefully about that.

[Jimski]

Next Labour Leader (and Deputy) - the vote

As Toro said if you vote Corbyn first then your Cooper vote won't be used unless Corbo has been knocked out. In which case, why the need to think carefully?

[Toro Toro]

Next Labour Leader (and Deputy) - the vote

.

[Rogin the Armchair fan]

Next Labour Leader (and Deputy) - the vote

I don't think he'll get 50% on the first ballot; and I don't think anyone who's voted for anyone else will have him as second preference. He'll "win" the first ballot with about 45%, but one of the others will then get it. So those second preference votes could be critical.

[Toro Toro]

Next Labour Leader (and Deputy) - the vote

It doesn't matter.

Second preferences are only counted when a candidate is eliminated. If he is the leader on 40% or whatever, then his second preferences will not be distributed.

Suppose you have voted: 1. Corbyn 2. Cooper

Scenario 1: First round Corbyn 40% Cooper 30% Burnham 20% Kendall 10%.

Kendall is eliminated, and her 10% are distributed according to the next preference. Say 4% Cooper, 4% Burnham, 1% Corbyn, 1% non-transferable. Then you have:

Second round Corbyn 41% Cooper 34% Burnham 24%

Burnham is eliminated, and his 24% are distributed according to the next preference. Say 15% Cooper 5% Corbyn, 4% non-transferable (either no further preference, or only Kendall). That would give:

Third round Corbyn 46% Cooper 49%.

In that case Cooper wins "on second preferences". But your second preference for her hasn't affected that at all, because your vote never transferred to her from Corbyn.

Scenario 2: First round Burnham 30% Cooper 30% Corbyn 30% Kendall 10%.

Kendall is eliminated, and her 10% go the same way as before: 4% Cooper, 4% Burnham, 1% Corbyn, 1% non-transferable. That gives you:

Second round Burnham 34% Cooper 34% Corbyn 31%.

In this scenario, Corbyn is eliminated. That's where your #2 comes into play. Suppose Corbyn's go 11% Cooper 10% Burnham 10% non-transferrable. That gives a final result:

Third round Cooper 45% Burnham 44%, and Cooper wins.

Your second preference assists that person only against people who are not your first preference, since it comes into play only if your first preference has already been beaten. So it can help her beat Burnham or Kendall, not Corbyn.

*

This came up during the AV thing; even very smart English people cannot get their heads around PR voting systems at all. I think it must be genetic, or something in the water supply.

[Errorist Sympathiser]

Next Labour Leader (and Deputy) - the vote

Leader: Corbyn, then nobody

Deputy: nobody - I'm abstaining like it's a welfare bill

[Rogin the Armchair fan]

Next Labour Leader (and Deputy) - the vote

I think, in the round of that, Toro (which is instructional) you've hit the head of the nail I was trying to make: rather than "not deciding" (as Jimski was earlier) about who to make second preference, it could well turn out to be crucial. So not a throwaway decision, at all.

[E10 Rifle]

Next Labour Leader (and Deputy) - the vote

Ms Rifle did some phone-bank calling for Corbo the other week and came across people who were voting combinations of Kendall and Corbyn (I guess both could plausibly sell themselves as 'outsiders'). There's also a surprising number of hitherto moderate types backing Kendall (including my in-laws). It really does defy normal political expectations, all this.

[Toro Toro]

Next Labour Leader (and Deputy) - the vote

Rogin - Ah, okay.

What you're saying is that if, failing a Corbyn win, he'd rather a Cooper than a Burnham win, he should vote for Cooper #2?

Yes, I absolutely agree. It makes absolutely no sense under this system not to fill out your preferences as far down the list as you think will make a difference.

It looked like you were warning him off giving Cooper the #2.

[Jimski]

Next Labour Leader (and Deputy) - the vote

Yes, I thought that too.

The reason I wasn't sure about whether to put a second preference is that I find it difficult to separate Cooper and Burnham. And I don't think Kendall has a chance. Will probably fill out the 1,2,3 though.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Next Labour Leader (and Deputy) - the vote

If I had a vote

1) Cooper 2) Burnham

1) Watson

1) Khan

[E10 Rifle]

Next Labour Leader (and Deputy) - the vote

Aren't you even a registered supporter?

[Tubby Isaacs]

Next Labour Leader (and Deputy) - the vote

No. Like George Monbiot, I don't really join stuff.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Next Labour Leader (and Deputy) - the vote

Crikey, Siobhan Benita's running for mayor again.

IIRC, she's very strongly pro-Heathrow expansion. Cameron will be hoping that's mentioned as little as possible.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Next Labour Leader (and Deputy) - the vote

Though unlike George Monbiot, I don't cuddle up to political parties strongest in Snowdonia and then tell their core voters they should give up farming and sell ice creams to tourists instead.