Storm in a tea cup: The weather thread

[ursus arctos]

Best of luck with that.

We will be thinking of you.

[Evariste Euler Gauss]

So, as regards what passes for "summer" in England, we had some very nice warm sunny weeks in June, utterly shit chilly and rainy July, not much better August, and now we are in the first day of a forecast last hurrah of 7 gloriously sunny and hottish days before the weather reverts to type for the autumn. As Sod's Law would have it, I will miss 4 of those, from Wednesday inclusive, in hospital, due to having a major operation on Wednesday with 4 days at least in hospital afterwards. Ah well, today, Monday and Tuesday will be nice.

[Third rate Leszno]

https://twitter.com/baynews9jeff/status/1696841620891578450?s=12&t=xvOireV8JOIS_CpbTtDBow

Wow. Been over that bridge dozens of times so I really have a feel for how high that surge is.

[Satchmo Distel]

We are OK here. 25 mph winds. Power still on. Very unlikely to get any worse.

But the Big Bend is going to have a catastrophe, starting in the next hour.

[ursus arctos]

https://twitter.com/baynews9jeff/status/1696841620891578450?s=12&t=xvOireV8JOIS_CpbTtDBow

[Incandenza]

Hoping for the best, Satchmo.

[Satchmo Distel]

Serious fuck-up in Collier County. They kept the kids in school and now there are tornado warnings going off in the surrounding streets (Marco Island, Lely, heading north to around 10 miles east of me). Lely is one of the locations where I teach but we got the day off, otherwise I'd be stuck there unable to drive home until the tornado passed (and then driving in sleeting rain).

We just have torrential rain at present.

[Satchmo Distel]

I'm in the yellow (39-57 mph). Classes cancelled. We are trying to fit 3 days' home-office work into one in case we lose power (IIRC Ian was just 24 hours for us, due to us being 25 miles inland).

Sarasota northwards are in danger of getting what Fort Myers Beach got in Hurricane Ian, when all beachside property was obliterated. Full moon makes the tides worse.

[ursus arctos]

https://twitter.com/BMcNoldy/status/1696472765484937330?t=J04Tw112OFkxFQjIQHC7sA&s=09

[Satchmo Distel]

Our university is closing as a precaution so I'm at home tomorrow and Wednesday, apart from a doctor's appointment at 8 am (which should still be calm).

[Eggchaser]

I see the " over a thousand scientists have signed off that climate change isn't real" nonsense has reared its head in social media again.

[Walt Flanagans Dog]

Daughter's friend is on a family holiday in Orlando and not long ago they were given 10 minutes to get out of the hotel, and are now attempting to get across a bridge towards the airport (don't know which, don't know the area) before the bridge is closed, while trying to rebook their flight home.

[San Bernardhinault]

Looks like it's going to dodge way north of Satchmo. It may graze Tampa but remains much more likely to hit Big Bend. Which is tough for the residents there, but at least there are fewer people who live there than further south.

What's worse is that it appears to be ramping up faster than expected and now rather than a Cat 1 at landfall it might be a Cat 3, which is much worse news.

Later on its track when it's well downgraded, the current central track forecast has it going pretty much straight over the Winter* Palace so we might again get to see whether the flood zone info is accurate.

* which we probably won't be using in winters any more.

[Satchmo Distel]

We are south of Lake Okeechobee, which you can see on the map as being below the cone, so as yet no major worries. I did get gas though as I anticipate some panic buying.

[ursus arctos]

Stay safe, Satchmo

https://twitter.com/tropicalupdate/status/1695760248324137148?s=12&t=xvOireV8JOIS_CpbTtDBow

[Satchmo Distel]

Category 1 hurricane likely to land Wednesday morning somewhere between Tampa and Panama City. I might get the day off if the state of emergency continues to include Fort Myers but my experience in the past has been that they'll wait until Tuesday early afternoon and only call off classes if the cone is too close to take a risk, which would mean it being within a certain margin of error of Fort Myers. If it veers towards the Big Bend I imagine we work as normal. I wouldn't expect any worse than we often get in very heavy storms in August, namely a few downed trees, some debris and maybe a brief power outage.

https://winknews.com/2023/08/26/trop...-93-caribbean/

[ursus arctos]

Https://twitter.com/cbsnews/status/1694338704167285073?s=12&t=xvOireV8JOIS_CpbTtDBow]

[San Bernardhinault]

Same here. It's surprising in Southern California in summer, but apart from that it was utterly unremarkable. The consequences for me are not cycling yesterday, not having to fill the pool this week, and fixing the schedule on the pool pump which got confused in a 25 minute power outage.

But up on the top of San Jacinto and San Gorgonio they had a foot of rain in a day, and the deserts had some serious flooding.

[Incandenza]

Our heaviest rain came in the middle of the night, but I'd say that overall for us this was not worse than the atmospheric river storms we were getting a few months back. Obviously other places are dealing with much worse from the storm.

[Ginger Yellow]

Meanwhile, to the east....

[Incandenza]

Record rainfalls for this day in most of the LA area. Downtown LA's previous record rainfall for August 20 was 0.03 inches, from 1906. 1.53 inches as of 6:45pm, and the rain has only gotten heavier in the last hour. Palmdale Airport is almost at 3 inches. Santa Maria set a new high temperature.

[Incandenza]

Raining all day here but not too heavily. The height should be in a few hours though

[ursus arctos]

https://twitter.com/weather_west/status/1693387011921695072?s=12&t=xvOireV8JOIS_CpbTtDBow

[San Bernardhinault]

Power is back here. It didn't feel like the kind of rain that should have triggered an outage. Probably some moron crashing their car into a substation because they don't have any tread on their tyres.

Meanwhile, there's a tornado warning up in the hills in Alpine and Descanso.

[San Bernardhinault]

Rain started coming down properly about 10 minutes ago (still no meaningful wind). Power went out about 5 minutes ago.