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Storm in a tea cup: The weather thread

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    Originally posted by Gangster Octopus View Post
    Eh? Aren't you the one who's always complaining that there's not enough snow in the UK?
    Err...in winter, in the mountains, yes...I like warm weather in summer.

    SB comment above reminded me of a number of discussions as to how the atmoshere behaviour is becoming increasingly out of sync with expectations, it is causing some consternation with long range forecasters. Anyhow, here is a study about this (if you want to really, really understand this thing....)

    https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley....rEbx7Q.twitter

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      Look, we had a very warm week in the middle of January, we had a mild Spring and now we're having four days of rain and all I hear is whining! You would all be whining far more if groundwater levels were so depleted there were hosepipe bans, or people had to ration showering, or get water from a standpipe from the street. All this rain is just what the doctor ordered!

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        When you're standing on your roof waving at the rescue helicopter as your sofa floats out of the living room window, don't turn to us for sympathy.

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          I just hope the brewery isn't threatened...

          Wainfleet inundated


          https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-englan...shire-48646801

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            Originally posted by Paul S View Post
            Look, we had a very warm week in the middle of January, we had a mild Spring and now we're having four days of rain and all I hear is whining! You would all be whining far more if groundwater levels were so depleted there were hosepipe bans, or people had to ration showering, or get water from a standpipe from the street. All this rain is just what the doctor ordered!
            Inundation doesn't help replenish groundwater reserves, because of all of the crap that gets washed into it following torrential downpours.

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              Finally a nice day in SE England - 23C and blue skies chez NS at the moment. Inevitably though, there's a Yellow weather warning issued for tomorrow and Wednesday - disruptive thunderstorms this time.

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                I missed all of last week's inundations, so I'm quite looking forward to this. Haven't had a good thunderstorm in a while.

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                  There wasn't much thunder and lightening, in the SE at least. Just relentless heavy rain.

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                    Amazing and insane upper air temperature chart for the UK. If that were to occur, we would likely see 40c down in London....It probably won't. For now...

                    https://amz.nwstatic.co.uk/monthly_2...c69a7f9b3a.png

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                      Is that for next Wednesday?

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                        Correct. Check the scale at the bottom. 25c "uppers", a very warm airmass that you are more likely to see in countries much further south and originating from Africa by the look of it, above the SE, translated to ground level temperature, it is pretty hot. Wet ground would moderate it though.

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                          Bit of a let down so far. Just a bit of drizzle at lunchtime.

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                            I can live with that.

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                              I think that the thunder & lightening was due a bit later in the day, though the forecast seems to have been downgraded a bit.

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                                Massive thunderstorm moving over the Thames estuary and into south Essex right now. Plus it's being fed by air coming up from France. The air has immediately turned cooler but there is loads of lightening and lots of thunder out there.

                                Stay safe everyone!

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                                  There are some amazing pictures on the BBC website of lightening around the Kent and East Sussex coasts, e.g.:


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                                    Hoping the weather holds. I'm planning a birthday trip on the Woolwich Ferry later.

                                    1000 up!

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                                      Happy birthday, sir.

                                      1,000 what, may I ask?

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                                        Cheers! Posts.

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                                          D'uh!

                                          I thought it was something like boat or ferry rides. My outside bet was trips on the Woolwich Ferry.

                                          I may need some caffeine.

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                                            LIGHTNING. IT'S LIGHTNING!

                                            (Sorry.)

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                                              That's very enlightening.

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                                                You know that mad chart I posted....well, that situation has now cross-models support...I'll just copy and past the comment of a Netweather poster, I think you'll get a sense of the excitement building....

                                                ECM individual ensembles on weather.us, WOW, WOW, WOW, WOW, the hottest ensemble set I have EVER seen (forget 2003) and the hottest ensemble set THERE WILL EVER be I guess.

                                                The only reason the mean upper air temps stay around 16C next week is purely TIMING issues. THE MAJORITY of runs hit 20C uppers at some point between next Tuesday and Saturday.

                                                And a SIGNIFICANT clustering hits 23C or more.

                                                I THINK this one is the hottest. 24/25C uppers WIDELY!!! Check out this link!! https://weather.us/model-charts/euro...628-1800z.html

                                                But it is FAR FROM being an outlier.

                                                Remember 2003 "ONLY" managed 21/22C uppers.

                                                There's also clearly a chance of a DOUBLE WHAMMY PLUME with one peak Tuesday/Wednesday and a second peak Friday/Saturday.

                                                Why do I keep writing in CAPITALS????

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                                                  But what does it actually mean?

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                                                    It's too darn hot...

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