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Storm in a tea cup: The weather thread

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    I blame you living oop north...

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      Yeah, I suppose that Harrow's virtually Arctic to you...

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        Too right. We see Winchester as the Midlands.

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          Originally posted by Gangster Octopus View Post
          I finally got to sit outside and drink a nice cold beer, and it fucking starts to rain. I blame TonTon ...
          I'll take it. Anything for rain.

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            Don't know the official temperature here but 29C was predicted. I do know that I have got three laundry loads washed and line-dried on one day - I put the first one out, checked it after an hour and it was dry - which must be a personal first, and that attempting a run proved to be a poor idea, which is not a first.
            Last edited by Walt Flanagans Dog; 31-07-2020, 18:07.

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              Model after model runs across multiple platforms show a stonking heat plume hitting us next weekend, again...As things stand, the record appears in danger to fall and 40c to be reached somewhere in the South-East...

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                Great!

                I'm due to make a 100-mile round trip and clear out a garage!

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                  Originally posted by Walt Flanagans Dog View Post
                  Don't know the official temperature here but 29C was predicted. I do know that I have got three laundry loads washed and line-dried on one day - I put the first one out, checked it after an hour and it was dry - which must be a personal first, and that attempting a run proved to be a poor idea, which is not a first.
                  Here we recorded a maximum temperature of 31 degrees and a minimum temperature of 10 degrees for yesterday, which is quite something.

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                    Of course, Ireland completely misses out on this heatwave, got to 18? yesterday.

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                      Model after model runs across multiple platforms show a stonking heat plume hitting us next weekend, again...As things stand, the record appears in danger to fall and 40c to be reached somewhere in the South-East...
                      Wow. But that's way higher than the forecasts on the BBC (which currently show 33 in London on the hottest day around next weekend I think). Are the BBC forecasts behind the information curve?

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                        https://twitter.com/MetEireann/status/1289675802649362433

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                          Originally posted by Evariste Euler Gauss View Post

                          Wow. But that's way higher than the forecasts on the BBC (which currently show 33 in London on the hottest day around next weekend I think). Are the BBC forecasts behind the information curve?
                          More a case they go by ensemble runs(50 low resolution runs giving an average) data rather than high resolution deterministic single run as those can sometimes go extreme. However 33c was also the Max temp forecasted for last Friday by the app a few days before.

                          To illustrate this point this evening ECM run, the best model, had a 37c raw temperature for Sunday. The deterministic run generally is 2/3c below what actually happens on the day

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                            Thanks v much for the explanation MS. I'm not sure I understand what "resolution" or "deterministic" mean in this context, but would I be right in thinking that the gist of it is that the models you are talking about are the most likely scenarios, and that the BBC forecast numbers represent a compromise using some kind of weighted average of the most likely scenarios and some less likely but perfectly possible scenarios? A bit like the difference between mean and median (while not technically analogous perhaps)?

                            I really hope that nowhere in the UK gets a blast of very high 30s C, that would be horrible. And unlike some on here who prefer it on the chilly side, I love weather that's warm enough to make it fun to have the paddling pool out - my ideal shade max for the summer months would probably be in the 24 to 28 C range, assuming that I don't have too much work to do at the time.

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                              Originally posted by Evariste Euler Gauss View Post
                              Thanks v much for the explanation MS. I'm not sure I understand what "resolution" or "deterministic" mean in this context, but would I be right in thinking that the gist of it is that the models you are talking about are the most likely scenarios, and that the BBC forecast numbers represent a compromise using some kind of weighted average of the most likely scenarios and some less likely but perfectly possible scenarios? A bit like the difference between mean and median (while not technically analogous perhaps)?

                              I really hope that nowhere in the UK gets a blast of very high 30s C, that would be horrible. And unlike some on here who prefer it on the chilly side, I love weather that's warm enough to make it fun to have the paddling pool out - my ideal shade max for the summer months would probably be in the 24 to 28 C range, assuming that I don't have too much work to do at the time.
                              You got the gist right actually. The ensemble mean which forecasters prefer to use is an averaged out result of, generally, 50 model runs. They also use something called clusters, to determine which scenarios are more likely. The less clusters there is, the better for precise forecast.

                              The deterministic run and indeed the matter of resolution is down to how fine tuned the run is, high resolution uses a smaller grid (just think OS maps). Computing power does not allow for 50 high Res runs so ensemble runs are less detailed (again, think OS maps) and as such less reliable.

                              That said, just one small change can cause of cascade of changes down the line. For example, if the trigger low in the Atlantic that helps this advection of hot air towards us shifts position, it can send the plume further east and we just get rain.

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                                https://twitter.com/weatheroptics/status/1290650109508751369

                                The authorities are taking the possibility of storm surge quite seriously, and we have been seeing higher traffic than usual on the Hudson, as ships look to ride it out further north. There is currently a ocean going survey vessel moored between FF and us, and the Coast Guard icebreakers usually homeported in Bayonne passed by half an hour ago.

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                                  We’re driving through upstate in the outer bands of Isaias. Set off stupidly early this morning to try and get through before the worst of it. So far it’s not too bad. A bit wet is all, and the radar shows us almost through it at Albany.

                                  That said, it’s not changing my general opinion of weather. I preferred living somewhere without it.

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                                    Have you managed to outrun it?

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                                      It is now clear here (though the wind has really kicked up) and it becomes clear that we relatively spared.

                                      One station in Pennsylvania recorded more than 7 inches of rain in the last 24 hours and our local electric utility has more customers without power (a couple of hundred thousand in total, spread among the outer boroughs) than at any time since Sandy and another major tropical storm.

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                                        Jeez it's humid on Dublin, feels like its really going to come down shortly.

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                                          We made it. Just had a handful of heavy patches of rain. Not even much wind - apparently a band if going to come across Eastern Mass soon, but most of the storm is to the west. There’s a tornado watch across the state, but I’m not sure if that means anything.

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                                            I'll be happy when we don't have to listen to local weather people on TV give themselves a hernia trying to pronounce Isaiah.

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                                              Originally posted by Moonlight Shadow View Post
                                              Model after model runs across multiple platforms show a stonking heat plume hitting us next weekend, again...As things stand, the record appears in danger to fall and 40c to be reached somewhere in the South-East...

                                              After reading this I've been keeping an eye of the forecasts. Looks like Friday is going to be the peak heat day, with London currently predicted to hit 35C. Let's see if that number rises in the next 24 hours or so.

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                                                The East Lothian riviera is in more danger of being washed into the sea than anything. We’ve had to cancel kids football because even the plastic pitch is unplayable

                                                First week of the festival is always a washout, even when that festival isn’t happening

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                                                  Currently forecast to hit 37, maybe 38, later today in London, from 33 right now. That's hotter than the MetOffice charts can show.

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                                                    Originally posted by Ginger Yellow View Post
                                                    Currently forecast to hit 37, maybe 38, later today in London, from 33 right now. That's hotter than the MetOffice charts can show.

                                                    Forecast is now for London to be 30C+ for the next four days too, with a thundery breakdown towards the end of the heatwave, (as the old saying has it).

                                                    Currently 30.6C in my back garden with very little in the way of a breeze.

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