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Storm in a tea cup: The weather thread

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    LIGHTNING. IT'S LIGHTNING!

    (Sorry.)

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      That's very enlightening.

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        You know that mad chart I posted....well, that situation has now cross-models support...I'll just copy and past the comment of a Netweather poster, I think you'll get a sense of the excitement building....

        ECM individual ensembles on weather.us, WOW, WOW, WOW, WOW, the hottest ensemble set I have EVER seen (forget 2003) and the hottest ensemble set THERE WILL EVER be I guess.

        The only reason the mean upper air temps stay around 16C next week is purely TIMING issues. THE MAJORITY of runs hit 20C uppers at some point between next Tuesday and Saturday.

        And a SIGNIFICANT clustering hits 23C or more.

        I THINK this one is the hottest. 24/25C uppers WIDELY!!! Check out this link!! https://weather.us/model-charts/euro...628-1800z.html

        But it is FAR FROM being an outlier.

        Remember 2003 "ONLY" managed 21/22C uppers.

        There's also clearly a chance of a DOUBLE WHAMMY PLUME with one peak Tuesday/Wednesday and a second peak Friday/Saturday.

        Why do I keep writing in CAPITALS????

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          But what does it actually mean?

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            It's too darn hot...

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              Originally posted by hobbes View Post
              But what does it actually mean?
              Come on, you can get the gist of it, can't you...Get the fan ready!

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                Met Office seems not to be anticipating much out of the ordinary for next week.

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                  Weather channel have got it heating up to about 25 on Monday coinciding with more fucking rain.
                  BBC have it doing similar but getting up to 28 on Tuesday/Wednesday
                  YR.NO who are usually the most conservative on temperature have it up to 31C Tuesday - Thursday. Again with bloody rain.

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                    BBQ Sunday though.

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                      Stay tuned, the insane model runs carry on. Too early for a firm forecast which is why no responsible forecaster will start screaming about "heatwave from hell" but there is some spectactular eye candy. Here is the latest comment from that fella on Netweather (Man with Beard)
                      Right individual ECM ensemble data is out on weather.us, and it is every bit like yesterday's 00Z (it was more muted last night on the 12Zs).

                      Monday/Tuesday very likely to be very warm/hot in places, but the fun and games is at the end of next week.

                      By Thursday/Friday, there's pretty much a 50/50 split between a) members returning to normal or slightly below-normal and b) insanely hot runs never seen before in the UK, threatening the June temperature record and some maybe even the 100F mark.

                      Here's my craziest chart of the day: https://weather.us/model-charts/euro...628-1200z.html. Uppers of 25C on the south coast, 24C in Wales, 23C in Dublin and 22C in Northern Ireland!!!! That is really quite mad. But honestly, it wasn't hard to find a crazy chart, a good 15 or 20 out of the 51 ensemble members could have been described as mad.

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                        ECM is the European model, the best there is based on verification stats. It runs twice a day, each run includes a high resolution operationnal run and 51 lower resolution "ensemble" runs that serve as a tool to see what trends are forming. 15 to 20 ensemble members would be a sizeable cluster that can't be dismissed too easily.

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                          Hot then?

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                            Am I missing something? 26C doesn't see all that hot to me.
                            I mean, it's a nice day to sit in the garden, but hardly check on the elderly neighbours.

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                              The temperatures mentionned are what is nicknamed "uppers", ground temperatures are another thing.

                              850 hPa level is roughly at 1.5 km, usually above the atmospheric boundary layer. ... That is why 850 hpa temperature is used to distinguish air masses and thus to locate cold and warm fronts.

                              Those "uppers" are extremely high for the UK, indicating a very warm airmass moving above us. What ground temperatures we will have will depend on cloud cover and how dry the ground is (which at the moment is very much a moderating influence in unbuilt areas)

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                                The BBC's forecast for next Wednesday is 31C for London so the figures are starting to go up.

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                                  The pollen count is supposed to be very high over the weekend too. Given how much I'm already sneezing today, that's probably not going to be very fun.

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                                    I love Ursus's Kelvin-Helmholtz waves.

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                                      There will be an easterly breeze coming along, the hottest part of the country might well be further west.

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                                        It looks like Moonlight's predicted record-busting temperatures might be to the south of us: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-48742241

                                        It's still forecast to be pretty hot in the UK this week though. It's overcast and muggy in the London area at the moment, with thunderstorms a possibility.

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                                          Just passing info, i am no forecaster! Yeah, incredibly we won't see stupidly hot temps at ground level despite those uppers.

                                          Horribly humid today, bit more breezy where i live mind...

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                                            I'm very grateful for the information. It's been bang on in the past.

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                                              I have a discreet talent for meta-analysis (i know which guys to read essetially)...

                                              Anyhow, it's about to go bang in the SE according to former Beeb forecaster Hammond...

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                                                I'm watching that cell off the coast of northern France and wondering whether it will hit Essex after Kent or drift round to the east. Last weeks thunderstorm did that but we still had a spectacular lightning display from the seafront to watch. Hoping for the same tonight.
                                                Last edited by Paul S; 24-06-2019, 21:30.

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                                                  Yes, it looks like London is going to get a few bangs & flashes in the small hours, as someone probably once said in a Carry On film.

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