Storm in a tea cup: The weather thread

[ursus arctos]

Dye - namo

[Amor de Cosmos]

Family has been holed up in a motel in College Station for the past couple of days. They're planning a return to Houston tomorrow. That doesn't mean they're going home though. Their house has between two and four feet of water in it. It'll probably be a week or so before it'll be accessible and, depending on the extent of the damage, perhaps a couple of months or more before it's inhabitable. Fortunately a friend who's currently working outside the US has an empty apartment they can use. It's only one bedroom between four of them but compared to what others are going through they consider themselves bloody lucky.

[ursus arctos]

Absolutely could be much worse.

Have you heard anything about any of the cultural collections? All the museums appear to be closed, but I'm hoping that is due to power and staffing issues rather than feet of standing water.

[Amor de Cosmos]

Artnet, from a couple of days ago

[ursus arctos]

Ta much

Could also have been much worse

[Amor de Cosmos]

Yes. It seems as if Galveston National Laboratory could learn a few things from the city's art centre regarding disaster preparation.

[Tubby Isaacs]

This fool is a new one on me.

[Tubby Isaacs]

CNN go to Rockport, where Pence has shown up, and somebody is giving a speech about Jesus. Greg Abbott is speaking too about the power of God.

He's declaring September 3 "a day of prayer in Texas". He's signing an official proclamation.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Pence has improved at making speeches since the last time I saw him. Wonder if he fancies pushing out Trump and stepping up.

His wife's now leading another prayer.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Actually, Karen Pence should take over. I think she's the first to remember Louisiana.

[Bruno]

Family has been holed up in a motel in College Station for the past couple of days.

That being the town I grew up in. Glad they're okay.

[ursus arctos]

An official statement from Arkema

"It's misleading to say it was an explosion. It was an overpressurization that was followed by a fire."

[Lang Spoon]

An "overpressurisation" eh? When the pressure overs, boy you gotta move.

[San Bernardhinault]

"It's misleading to say he died. His heart stopped beating and the supply of blood to his brain failed."

[Ginger Yellow]

Are the insides on the outside and is the outside in little pieces? It was an explosion.

[Bruno]

Somebody (I think it was a police official) was interviewed about the "explosion" and he said it was no different from a campfire in as much as you wouldn't want to stand downwind from a campfire and breathe in the smoke. So the reporter asked "Are you saying it's no more harmful than a campfire" and he replied "That's not what I was saying."

[Satchmo Distel]

The east coast might get Hurricane Irma by next Saturday but I am encouraged by this article which shows the historic trend being that Hurricanes in Irma's current position usually curve north before they get to Miami's longitude.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/...ve-out-to-sea/

[Amor de Cosmos]

My stepson-in-law got into the house for the first time since they evacuated yesterday. Floodwater reached about three feet at it's highest. He and a dozen or so friends are doing a comprehensive inspection today and taking photos for insurance purposes. It's already clear it'll be months before they can move back in. The wallboard downstairs needs replacing, wooden floors have buckled and popped. Kitchen cabinets are done for, probably the fridge and stove are too. Then there's the furniture...

[Satchmo Distel]

Will these insurance companies whack up their prices now?

[Amor de Cosmos]

Who knows? I'm surprised they could get flood insurance at all. We can't and there's less chance of destructive flooding on Houston's scale here.

[ursus arctos]

An absolutely brilliant multimedia portrait of five Houstonians' experience of Harvey from the Houston Chronicle

[Satchmo Distel]

It's starting to look at least 50% probable that Florida will get at least the periphery of Irma, which is currently category 4. Impact on Sunday. My wife has a flight from southern Florida to Atlanta booked and I dunno if she should cancel or no. How do other travelers judge this kind of situation?

[Amor de Cosmos]

How vital is her flight? Unless it's really important (subjective of course) I wouldn't take the chance.

[ursus arctos]

Here's the current projection.



What are her alternatives? They will close the airport before someone like me would be concerned, but I recognise that I am a much less anxious flyer than most people.

[Satchmo Distel]

She won't go if it says on that track. And of course you'd expect full closures of every airport in the track, maybe announced by mid-Saturday (how late do they usually leave that decision...???)

On projections, my understanding is that there is an American model and a European one. The European tracks farther east and has supposedly been more reliable in the past. But both models see some Florida impacts and the degree of overlap between their cones is exceptionally high. More consensus than usual.

But we are six days out. Known unknowns etc. Workwise, working on contingencies to restructure courses if 7-14 days lost.