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Mosul

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    Mosul

    I did a search and can't find anything about this, which is a really alarming situation. I've got a couple of global-colleagues (sorry about the crap term, no better way to describe it) who work not far way in Erbil. This part of Iraq was meant to be secure, with the Kurdish people in control of the region, financed and supported by the UN and others (western oil companies, obviously). Probably the only good thing you could say about the whole shitty situation in Iraq is that at least it worked out well for the Kurds. I imagine the whole region is utterly f*cked now and the likelihood of Turkey being dragged into this sh*tty conflict is almost certain.

    F*ck religion and these Islamic extremist c*nts.

    #2
    Mosul

    I suspect one of your global colleagues is currently taking a a course with me.

    It really is terrible, and it's hard to see how it works out. These people are obviously getting money/weapons from somewhere and that would appear to be from Saudi and probably funneled through Turkey (and Erdogan bears a significant responsibility for the current strength of ISIS)

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      #3
      Mosul

      Mosul isn't under the authority of Iraqi Kurdistan is it? I know Kirkuk is still supposedly to be subject to a referendum, but Mosul sits outside their control.

      It's been a real about-face from Erdogan, after all those years ago espousing the 'zero problems with neighbours' shite. So far that's not exactly worked with Armenia, Syria or now Iraq (including the Kurdistan govt a lot of the time). Although the broader situation has worked out well for the Kurds, the danger (when it comes to Turkey becoming involved) is if this Mosul situation threatens Iraq's integrity, and Kurdistan aims to go it alone. Turkey on a normal day probably wouldn't stand for that, Turkey under Erdogan definitely wouldn't.

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        #4
        Mosul

        Unless the Turkmen minority benefit along with Sunnis and it will destabilise the power of the Shia.

        Tayyip's hands are definitely somewhere very deep in this mess.

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          #5
          Mosul

          This is just profoundly depressing.

          The Iraqi Army is melting away, ISIL is capturing huge caches of weapons and cash, there are close to half a million people fleeing the cities blindly, and the situation looks like it can only get worse (in both Iraq and Syria).

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            #6
            Mosul

            Fuck

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              #7
              Mosul

              via vicaria wrote: Mosul isn't under the authority of Iraqi Kurdistan is it? I know Kirkuk is still supposedly to be subject to a referendum, but Mosul sits outside their control.

              It's been a real about-face from Erdogan, after all those years ago espousing the 'zero problems with neighbours' shite. So far that's not exactly worked with Armenia, Syria or now Iraq (including the Kurdistan govt a lot of the time). Although the broader situation has worked out well for the Kurds, the danger (when it comes to Turkey becoming involved) is if this Mosul situation threatens Iraq's integrity, and Kurdistan aims to go it alone. Turkey on a normal day probably wouldn't stand for that, Turkey under Erdogan definitely wouldn't.
              Mosul was under Shia control, but I don't think the Shia army that were in control had much backing from the Sunni inhabitants. Most have fled into Kurdish areas (ISIL don't appear to be too keen on moving on these parts, though not sure whether that is down to having no real axe to grind or that they feel that the Kurds are more united and will more likely defend their own people) merely to avoid the reprisals that are expected from government forces. meanwhile, as the Iraqi government prevaricates over it's next move which so far amounts to asking the population to arm themselves against the insurgents, ISIL have taken over in Tikrit which is a strong Sunni area and likely to be anti-government.

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                #8
                Mosul

                The west has just been so incredibly naive over the past couple of decades, hasn't it? Myself too, I'm only just getting my head around the whole thing, that democracy isn't a one size fits all solution to gain freedom. And in some places freedom isn't necessarily being able to vote, it's being able to live in peace and security. Everyone's lives are directed by God and religion in the region, but the great majority don't want politics and religion to mix. However, there are sufficient people who want to use politics to attain their particular religious way of life that makes democracy unattainable. Sadly, the only way the middle east knew how to control this was through hideous dictatorships.

                But in hindsight, I absolutely think the west was wrong to support the removal of Gaddafi, I think the west should have supported Bashar al Assad and still should and obviously, we should have stayed the f*ck out of Iraq. The organic process of events in Turkey, Tunisia and to some extent Egypt demonstrate how diplomacy works and force only leads to long term destruction. Even Iran seems closer to supposed "freedom" than those countries to its west.

                Saying all of that, in my opinion the UN need to take action in Iraq immediately. Sadly, I can't see it happening.

                Comment


                  #9
                  Mosul

                  Shedmundo wrote: (ISIL don't appear to be too keen on moving on these parts, though not sure whether that is down to having no real axe to grind or that they feel that the Kurds are more united and will more likely defend their own people)
                  More likely the latter. The Kurds are almost certainly wealthier, better armed and as cohesive as any Sunni force within Iraq.

                  Speaking of the Kurds, and my mention of Kirkuk earlier, the Kurdish armed forces have just occupied Kirkuk. Kurdistan claims Kirkuk as their area, Iraq claims it as part of Tigris governorate. Lots of oil in those parts. This could be the start of something even uglier.

                  It was supposed to be subject to a status referendum, but we're moving into the arena of de facto change of status.

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                    #10
                    Mosul

                    Shedmundo wrote:
                    Mosul was under Shia control, but I don't think the Shia army that were in control had much backing from the Sunni inhabitants.
                    A lot of the rank and file troops in those regions appear to have been Sunni, which probably explains the ease of which all this has taken place.
                    All eyes are on what ISIS/ISIL do now because if they push on into areas dominated demographically by the Shia (Baghdad is a majority Shia city now post-2003) they could bite off more than they can chew. But if they hold back and consolidate the what they've gained, they could stay in those positions for quite some time.

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                      #11
                      Mosul

                      I know what to do: let's invade again...

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                        #12
                        Mosul

                        If you don't continue sending people to their deaths for your political ideas, you sully the memories of everyone who died previously. You don't want that, do you?

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                          #13
                          Mosul

                          I'm finding Andrew Sullivan's coverage to be informative and depressing in pretty much equal measure.

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                            #14
                            Mosul

                            Tony Blair says we must "liberate ourselves" from the idea that he is in any way to blame

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                              #15
                              Mosul

                              Fuck off Tony, the west has been causing this shit in the middle east for over 100 years.

                              Anybody with a brain larger than a pea would have known in 2003 that a collection of sham countries brutally enforced by various puppet kings and dictators can't be turned into a collection of democratic nations, because none of them were ever nations in the first place.

                              Fucking cockhead. When will these morons understand that the western concepts of "Syria", "Iran", "Jordan" and "Saudi Arabia" have absolutely no fucking meaning to the people in the region.

                              You can't just put a border around a random bit of land, support fascists cunts there for decades to keep the artificial nation intact, and then turn around and blame the random collection of people within said borders for not spontaneoulsy turning into a democracy despite years of repression actively aided by the west.

                              Fuck off Tony.

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                                #16
                                Mosul

                                Did you mean "Iraq" not "Iran" in the above post?

                                Comment


                                  #17
                                  Mosul

                                  Yes, sorry, I meant Iraq. Typo.

                                  Iran is at least somewhat equivalent to the Persian nation. The reason it has a clusterfuck government is also the fault of tha west, but that is another story.

                                  Comment


                                    #18
                                    Mosul

                                    António Pulisão é um gênio wrote: Fuck off Tony, the west has been causing this shit in the middle east for over 100 years.

                                    Anybody with a brain larger than a pea would have known in 2003 that a collection of sham countries brutally enforced by various puppet kings and dictators can't be turned into a collection of democratic nations, because none of them were ever nations in the first place.

                                    Fucking cockhead. When will these morons understand that the western concepts of "Syria", "Iran", "Jordan" and "Saudi Arabia" have absolutely no fucking meaning to the people in the region.

                                    You can't just put a border around a random bit of land, support fascists cunts there for decades to keep the artificial nation intact, and then turn around and blame the random collection of people within said borders for not spontaneoulsy turning into a democracy despite years of repression actively aided by the west.

                                    Fuck off Tony.
                                    Agree with all of this. He really has no fucking shame making millions out his war mongering shit
                                    and getting away with it.I heard him described as the middle eastern peace envoy.This is a mad sad world.

                                    Comment


                                      #19
                                      Mosul

                                      António Pulisão é um gênio wrote: Fuck off Tony, the west has been causing this shit in the middle east for over 100 years.

                                      Anybody with a brain larger than a pea would have known in 2003 that a collection of sham countries brutally enforced by various puppet kings and dictators can't be turned into a collection of democratic nations, because none of them were ever nations in the first place.

                                      Fucking cockhead. When will these morons understand that the western concepts of "Syria", "Iran", "Jordan" and "Saudi Arabia" have absolutely no fucking meaning to the people in the region.

                                      You can't just put a border around a random bit of land, support fascists cunts there for decades to keep the artificial nation intact, and then turn around and blame the random collection of people within said borders for not spontaneoulsy turning into a democracy despite years of repression actively aided by the west.

                                      Fuck off Tony.
                                      Yes, well said.

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                                        #20
                                        Mosul

                                        Sorry about all the swearing. But Tony was really annoying me. How anybody can look at the mess that is the Middle East and not conclude that is due to years of western imperialist meddling is just beyond me.

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                                          #21
                                          Mosul

                                          Indeed, Sykes-Picot and all that, but it must be said the various sects are doing a good job of causing havoc themselves - I mean, the Lebanese could have rewritten their own constitution with resorting to civil war, Turkey should have found some regional autonomy to placate their Kurds, and Assad largely sowed the seeds of his own destruction by favouring his own. Colonial borders have exacerbated animosity but pan-Arab unity would never have been cemented even if Lawrence's views had been honoured.

                                          Comment


                                            #22
                                            Mosul

                                            Genuine question: why do the emirates that make up the UAE (Dubai, Abu Dhabi, etc) appear to have none of these troubles, and even seem good buddies with not only Western governments but westerners themselves (as business travellers and especially tourists), even though their rulers are just as autocratic and their laws apparently just as harsh, at least toward their own people?

                                            Is it because they are all (ethnically and religiously) more homogenous, with none of the Sunni-Shiite internal friction? And if the majority of people in Dubai, for example, seem to not only respect the rule of the emir but support it, is the bigger question (for political students) whether, actually, this demonstrates that democracy can't just be imposed as a system on former monarchies in the way we've tried to do, who aren't ready for coping with that level or style of expressing choice or freedom, and tumultuous civil war is inevitable if we do (as it was in France after 1789, let's not forget, or arguably the 60 years in American history after their War of Independence)?

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                                              #23
                                              Mosul

                                              Rogin o adepto de sofá wrote: their laws apparently just as harsh, at least toward their own people?
                                              Where do you get that? Emiratis are treated very very well within the system. They get free houses, free cars, guaranteed jobs, pretty high quality education etc etc. It's the immigrant population - especially those from the sub-continent and the Phillipines who get treated like shit.

                                              Comment


                                                #24
                                                Mosul

                                                Rogin o adepto de sofá wrote: Genuine question: why do the emirates that make up the UAE (Dubai, Abu Dhabi, etc) appear to have none of these troubles, and even seem good buddies with not only Western governments but westerners themselves (as business travellers and especially tourists), even though their rulers are just as autocratic and their laws apparently just as harsh, at least toward their own people?

                                                Is it because they are all (ethnically and religiously) more homogenous, with none of the Sunni-Shiite internal friction?
                                                I don't know a huge amount about this, but I'd guess economic factors are at play.

                                                The Syrian conflict largely stemmed from an economic collapse and drought in Syria in the couple of years prior to the uprising. Combined with the government's escalation of violence following political protests?

                                                Obviously ethnic and religious differences tend to decide the number and nature of the eventual factions.

                                                I don't know much about the UAE, but I guess they can use their oil wealth to prevent food prices getting out of hand.

                                                Bahrain, for example, had protests against the ruling authoritarian Sunni minority which it violently crushed. Without the economic crisis, a full-scale civil war is less likely to spark.

                                                Comment


                                                  #25
                                                  Mosul

                                                  (Edit: in response to ad hoc above)

                                                  Those are more economic factors than the judicial ones I was referring to, though. They'll still give people 18 months out there for having a beer and consensual extra-marital sex. It's not exactly Brighton yet.

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