Irish Times

[Geoffrey de Ste. Croix]

The 2016 Irish election is over!

Nothing off that list strikes me as a ridiculous thing to privatize in Greece. I wouldn't want it privatized here, of course, but we're not talking about a British level of public sector efficiency.

Wow.

[Tubby Isaacs]

The 2016 Irish election is over!

antoine polus wrote: But there was no lending of money to the 'Irish government'. Each country loaned an amount of money to Ireland that was roughly equivalent to the amount of money that their own banks were on the hook for in the Irish property market. It was bailing out of European banks dressed up as bailing out Ireland.

The system in Greece was indeed broken in that a large portion of the middle class were siphoning money out of government coffers. Whereas in Ireland it's the Top 1% who are doing it. I would say that neither the Greek scenario nor the Irish scenario are particularly desirable, but our world leaders have a clear preference for one of those two scenarios.

I said the Irish Government, not Ireland, or the Irish people or anything else. The Irish Government had liabilities and current spending to fund. The UK self-evidently loaned £7bn to the Irish Government, and it should have loaned more because it would have recovered quicker.

I don't get your second point. Ireland was much more easy to reform and make solvent than Greece. It ought to have been treated more leniently.

[Tubby Isaacs]

The 2016 Irish election is over!

Geoffrey de Ste. Croix wrote:

Nothing off that list strikes me as a ridiculous thing to privatize in Greece. I wouldn't want it privatized here, of course, but we're not talking about a British level of public sector efficiency.

Wow.

Wow what?

Tsipras, SYRIZA and their predecessors have done virtually everything ordered of them and to what good?

They've stopped spending money, because they've been forced to. And they've passed laws because they've had to. Actually making changes to the way the state works though? The OECD see progress as "mixed". Even something as fundamental as the tax service is still too close to politicians.

[Lang Spoon]

The 2016 Irish election is over!

Jesus. Discipline and punish. Can you tell the sensible left and an Economist editorial (from all 3 centuries) apart? When it was obvious the punishment will kill the patient, what is the motivation to continue? Pour encourager les autres is wearing a bit thin, this is pure sadism for domestic electoral consumption all over Europe.

Imagine if such pathetic non solidarity existed amongst the US currency Union that as shamelessly corrupt and poor a state as Mississippi had a welfare system that reflected their ability to pay. The rush to Economic union without dismantling State's rights and vested interests has prolonged this disaster.

For Greece, even for Plucky Old Ireland.

[anton pulisov]

The 2016 Irish election is over!

I said the Irish Government, not Ireland, or the Irish people or anything else. The Irish Government had liabilities and current spending to fund. The UK self-evidently loaned £7bn to the Irish Government, and it should have loaned more because it would have recovered quicker.

Of course the UK government loaned money to Ireland. British banks had their fair share of Irish property shite on their books, which Brian Lenihan had blanket guaranteed. The UK government would rather help the Irish government honour that stupid guarantee than see haircuts happen. Sweden is also not in the Eurozone and lent money to Ireland for the same reason, to bail out Nordea.

And I really don't understand what you mean by being able to recover from indebtedness faster by loaning more.

Perhaps you could also list the reforms that have been successfully implemented in Ireland.

[Lang Spoon]

The 2016 Irish election is over!

Hah, the legal services bill that was part of the troika demands, where's the changes on barriers to entry/shitebag prohibition on shared chambers? If you're not independently wealthy or connected being a barrister will mean fighting for work lecturing evenings in a private college (and days if you're lucky, cos you'll have fuck all briefs). Fitzgerald is a lightweight pussycat, rolling over to some of our most respectable worst people.

Personal or political connection are essential in ways that would be boggling to even as nepotistic legal beaks as the UK's three systems. You basically have to back a party to get on. Of course the beaks are now the greatest source of income for the "party of Connolly".

(This is not a plea for struggling barristers. My job is stolid and steady in its payments, an' I've no chutzpah for crowds)

[Tubby Isaacs]

The 2016 Irish election is over!

Bigger loan up front, lower overall cuts, more government investment, better recovery.

Nobody's saying the UK or Swedish loans were altruistic. Seems like Denmark contributed to, doubtless for the same reason.

http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/assistance_eu_ms/ireland/index_en.htm

From 2011 until the end of 2013 the EU and the IMF provided financial assistance to Ireland. In December 2013, Ireland successfully completed the EU-IMF financial assistance programme, with the vast majority of policy conditions under the programme substantially met and investor confidence restored for the sovereign and the banks.

They sound happy enough.

Lots of it sounds like it was fiscal and labour market related. You don't have to agree with it, but it happened as agreed.

[anton pulisov]

The 2016 Irish election is over!

If a country is being crippled by debt payments then a big loan up front is only going to pile on to the debt payments. When a country is insolvent what is required is big up front debt restructuring.

Debt restructuring is exactly what the IMF demanded when the Troika arrived in Dublin in 2010, but the Euro ministers were having none of it. Ireland would have to be made an example of. And the Irish government agreed with the Euro ministers, in a bizarre display of Stockholm syndrome. The IMF were completely flummoxed.

The press release from the EU commission you have quoted is hardly going to say, "we made an example out of Ireland and it successfully scared Spain completely shitless."

There were no reforms in Ireland. The powers that be cut the shit out of the place and enough people emigrated to reduce the dole bill. The clientelist political system that got Ireland into a mess is still in place and the only political reform that was attempted (abolishing the senate) would actually have made things worse.

[Lang Spoon]

The 2016 Irish election is over!

Instead of an honest revising chamber we have Dr James Reilly, Paudie fuckin Coffey and the unutterable Mulherin.

Oh Enda and your desperate gerrymander. The occasional defeat (meaningless outside the mind of Miriam Lord) in the Seanad might have played well as a reforming sop.

[The Awesome Berbaslug!!!]

The 2016 Irish election is over!

Geoffrey did the Greek economy contract by a third because of the policies of their debtors, or because of the end of the Greek tiger bubble economy, which needed a massive amount of government borrowing to create and sustain it?

Greece was somewhat unusual among European countries in how little it exported beyond tourism, or how little it manufactured full stop.

Ireland's gdp didn't take anything like the hammering that greece's did because we were exporting huge amounts of stuff throughout the recession to people who weren't broke. Huge amounts of Greek economic activity was in the domestic services sector and that was torn to shreds by the end of easy govt borrowing.

Also when greece's creditors want Greece to reform pensions they don't necessarily want Greece to reduce fact spending, or take demand out of the economy. They just want the Greek govt to spend a lower proportion on pensions, and spend that money in other ways.

Greece spends 18% of their gdp on pensions. The European average is 10%. That's completely unsustainable. It simply has to change.

[Lang Spoon]

The 2016 Irish election is over!

A Modest Proposal. Mandatory Dignitas clinics. Fuck 'em and their greasy Olive oil based longevity.

GDP result!

[anton pulisov]

The 2016 Irish election is over!

GDP decline, in real terms, was roughly similar in Ireland and Greece, namely about $7,000 - $8,000 per capita. In percentage terms the decline was much bigger in Greece, because they started from a much lower absolute value. Ireland started from a much higher absolute GDP value than Greece did because Ireland is a tax haven and, therefore, the profits of many large multinational companies are booked through Ireland and nominally count towards its GDP.

GNP fall in Ireland and Greece, in percentage terms, was broadly similar. Although it will have become much worse in Greece after the Eurogroup shut down its banks last year.

I've always found it deeply ironic that the serious people in the EC say that Greeks should start paying their taxes and be more like Ireland, when Ireland is running one of the largest tax rackets in the world.

Tax revenue as a % of GDP (2014):
Greece: 35.9%
Germany: 36.1%
Ireland: 29.9%

Greece should propose to become more like Ireland. I'm sure the Eurogroup would be delighted, because they are very happy with how things are going in Ireland.

[Diable Rouge]

The 2016 Irish election is over!

First time I've ever seen a party record "less than 1%" in a Red C poll.

[The Awesome Berbaslug!!!]

The 2016 Irish election is over!

Hmm if Greece is taking about 36% of gdp in tax revenue, you can see the problem with spending 18% on pensions.

[Borracho]

The 2016 Irish election is over!

The Awesome Berbaslug!!! wrote: It's like talking to a climate change denier.

Could be worse, it could be like talking to Michael Noonan or Jurgen Stark.

[Snake Plissken]

The 2016 Irish election is over!

antoine polus wrote:
Debt restructuring is exactly what the IMF demanded when the Troika arrived in Dublin in 2010, but the Euro ministers were having none of it. Ireland would have to be made an example of. And the Irish government agreed with the Euro ministers, in a bizarre display of Stockholm syndrome. The IMF were completely flummoxed.

I remember being over there in 2009 and during the discussions with Lenihan about the amount of money being owed to German banks, Angela Merkel said something like "well, we do realise that there is a possibility that our banks will not get all of the money back" and Lenihan took one look at that olive branch and snapped it in half.

[anton pulisov]

The 2016 Irish election is over!

Merkel does come out and say the odd thing every now and then that might suggest that bondholders should take a hit. The next day the markets go down and she immediately backtracks.

Greece's expenditure on OAP is just over 14% of GDP, the highest in Europe. Ireland is the lowest in the EU, at just under 6%. Ireland also happens to have the youngest population in the EU (only 12.5% of the population older than 65), and Greece the second oldest (20.5% > 65) after Italy (21.5% >65). Italy is just behind Greece in OAP payments at just over 13%. So yeah, the Greeks could probably shave a percent of GDP off their pension payments, but that's about it. There's not as much room as is being made out. So more creative solutions have been sought, like massive cuts in healthcare, which will eventually take care of the old people problem.

Ireland has quite generous pensions and a free national travel pass for pensioners. The Irish old age pension is much higher than the Dutch one, for example. But the Dutch are spending much more of GDP on pensions than Ireland, because the Dutch have an older population.

Also, because both the GDP of the different countries as well as the age of the populations are different, the % of GDP spent on pensions can be difficult to compare.

Much better is to actually compare how much dosh each of the pensioners are getting. Are the Greek pensioners taking the piss?

Total euro public expenditure per pension beneficiary (eurostat):

Denmark 26 795.3
Luxembourg 23 858.5
Sweden 19 672.9
Netherlands 18 754.5
Belgium 17 641.4
Ireland 17 607.2
Finland 16 338.4
UK 16 036.4
France 15 991.6
Italy 14 751.3
Spain 13 666.7
Germany 13 256.9
Greece 10 785.0
Portugal 8 476.6

What we are essentially saying to the Greeks is that because they come from a poor part of Europe, they can't have a pension as high as other parts of Europe. And now they are being told that they need to cut it some more. This is no way to run a Union. It's clear that Europe needs a federal system. Some countries are older than others. You can't have a shared currency and a single market, but not have all the other stuff shared as well.

[Tubby Isaacs]

The 2016 Irish election is over!

Ireland doesn't just "happen to have" a young population. It's got that by public policy, mainly it's immigration policy and labour market (for all its faults). The UK too, despite all the bollocks it talks, has done the same and is a decent position.

Greece is always going to be a harder sell, but did it do anything before the Crash much to make its population younger or less Greek?

[anton pulisov]

The 2016 Irish election is over!

Ireland has always had one of the highest proportion of young people in Europe due to its high fertility rate. It is currently 2.1 kids per woman and was over 3.0 in the early 80s. The fertility rate in Greece is 1.3. You can see what that is going to do to their population pyramid.

There is a similar distribution fertility distribution within the states of the United States as in Europe, but the US federal government isn't punishing the pensioners in the states that have less kids.

Ireland's immigration policy is pretty much the same as Greece's in that anybody within the EU is allowed to settle there. When it comes to immigrants from outside the EU, Ireland does the bare minimum.

[Tubby Isaacs]

The 2016 Irish election is over!

I said immigration and labour policy together. Greece didn't have both, and stupidly restricted 2004 immigration. To be fair it did open up immediately to Bulgaria and Romania, and did to Poland etc by about 2006. But still a howler. To use a phrase that got Labour into trouble, they should have been sending out search parties long before that.

Do the Irish like kids more than Greeks, Italians etc? Maybe but what have the more ageing countries done to promote fertility? Wouldn't it be better just within the current pensions problem to spend more on family allowances and less on pensions?

[Tubby Isaacs]

The 2016 Irish election is over!

Hang on, what?

US fertility was way above the EU'S before the Crash, and before any pensioners were being punished. Per the CIA Facebook, 2007

US 2.05
Ireland 1.86
EU average 1.50
Greece 1.34
Italy 1.29

That's a long term failure of those last 2 and nothing to do with the EU.

US states fertility

Can only find 2010

Utah highest 2.45
Rhode Island lowest 1.63

Whatever the distribution, that's altogether more healthy.

[anton pulisov]

The 2016 Irish election is over!

1.63 - 2.45 is a huge range.

The point is that the USA is a federation and pensioners in Rhode Island don't have to worry about the state's fertility rate.

I don't see why Greece should be punished for having less children.

Seeing how the current ecological footprint of human beings on the Earth is wholly unsustainable, it is ridiculous that we have an economic model that requires population growth.

[The Awesome Berbaslug!!!]

The 2016 Irish election is over!

Borracho wrote:

It's like talking to a climate change denier.

Could be worse, it could be like talking to Michael Noonan or Jurgen Stark.

Hold on, I'm not disagreeing with you because I've become a raging right winger. I'm disagreeing with you because you're just factually incorrect in some of things you believe.

whatever you might think about the last government, they managed to regain control of our finances very quickly, without damaging the under lying economy, which started to grow at boom time levels. As a result, the cuts and tax rises were less severe than they might otherwise have been.

Our national debt is at manageable levels, and now they can afford to start to repair the damage done during the bust. Employment is rising, unemployment is falling, They've ended net migration (which over the last 10 years is 0)

They did it while protecting the welfare budget from the reduction that the other departments faced. And we went a very long way to repairing the worst of the mess caused by the bursting of the property bubble.

You can have many reasons for being unhappy with the last government, but on a number of vital fronts, they were a raging success, in the face of considerable problems. Being angry with them over Nama is a good reason to be angry, but you should only be angry with them for things that they did do, rather than things they actually did really well at.

[Tubby Isaacs]

The 2016 Irish election is over!

Given that the EU isn't a proper federation, I don't know why you keep mentioning it.

If you see it as punishment, Greece is being punished for godawful policy across the board for donkeys years. But whatever, it needs a better settlement overall, nobody here thinks it doesn't.

[Tubby Isaacs]

The 2016 Irish election is over!

They did it while protecting the welfare budget from the reduction that the other departments faced.

That's an interesting contrast with us. You basically make all the tax cuts and spending commitments your core vote wants and cut that from the welfare budget. Which assumes that our bunch of liars means a word it says, but it is how you win a majority.