Irish Times

[Diable Rouge]

The 2016 Irish election is over!

Meanwhile, professional Gaeilgeoir Manchán Magan is running for the Greens in Longford/Westmeath - seems to much of an eccentric intellectual for a rural Midlands constituency, even if he's easily the most travelled national candidate.

[Duncan Gardner]

The 2016 Irish election is over!

A date for yer diaries, lads. New DUP leader Arlene Foster has ruled out going to the Easter thrash but is looking for someone to squire her to a GAA fixture. She was also filmed jiggling the hips to fave Bowie tune 'Let's Dance'.

[Diable Rouge]

The 2016 Irish election is over!

The FF Árd Fheis is getting all the media publicity, but the Green Party Annual Conference is also being held in Dublin today, with both Northern and Southern candidates in attendance. Interestingly, Ellen Murray is the first known transgender individual to seek political office on the island of Ireland.

[Diable Rouge]

The 2016 Irish election is over!

First 2016 poll:

FG 30% (-2)
FF 19% (+2)
SF 19% (0)
Lab 9% (0)
Ind 15% (+1)
AAA-PBP 3% (0)
Renua 2% (0)
Greens 2% (0)
SD 1% (-1)

[Diable Rouge]

The 2016 Irish election is over!

And a Sunday Times poll:

FG 31% (-)
FF 20% (+1)
SF 16% (-1)
Ind 15% (+2)
Lab 6% (-2)
Green 3% (-1)
AAA-PBP 3% (-1)
Workers 2% (+1)
Renua 2% (+1)
SD 1% (-)

[Tubby Isaacs]

The 2016 Irish election is over!

Cheers.

Can you or anyone else recommend a book on recent Irish politics/history? I like Ship of Fools about the "fall" but I'd like to know more about the rise.

[jefe]

The 2016 Irish election is over!

Gracias, antoine polus.

[Tubby Isaacs]

The 2016 Irish election is over!

I don't like the look of this woman.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mary_Harney

She's got a nice pension, and went into private health after being Health Secretary.

[Diable Rouge]

The 2016 Irish election is over!

Tubby Isaacs wrote: Cheers.

Can you or anyone else recommend a book on recent Irish politics/history? I like Ship of Fools about the "fall" but I'd like to know more about the rise.

In terms of the Celtic Tiger era, David McWilliams' The Pope's Children is probably as good as anything about the hype. For humourous nailing of clichés, the Ross O'Carroll Kelly series is excellent on the D4 set.

[Diable Rouge]

The 2016 Irish election is over!

The RedC poll gives seat predictions of:

FG 56
FF 33
SF 29
Lab 9
Others 31

Even an Uncle Tom Cobley Coalition couldn't return the incumbents, so FG-FF or the highly unlikely FG-SF required to avoid a re-run.

[Borracho]

The 2016 Irish election is over!

Tubby Isaacs wrote: Cheers.

Can you or anyone else recommend a book on recent Irish politics/history? I like Ship of Fools about the "fall" but I'd like to know more about the rise.

The Builders by Frank McDonald.

[Duncan Gardner]

The 2016 Irish election is over!

I know Southern posters are sick of me asking, but any chance of a breakdown of the others/ independents? For example, how many of them are really FF or FG in all but name.

I'm reading Mark Carruthers (BBC NIpolitics anchorman) interviewing local hacks about their Ulster identity. Turns out Gerry Adams' first barman job was round the corner from my Granny's house.

[Borracho]

The 2016 Irish election is over!

Excluding the small left-wing parties there are currently 14 independents in the Dail.

Stephen Donnelly
Ming Flanagan
Tom Fleming
Noel Grealish
John Halligan
Michael Healy-Rae
Michael Lowry
Finian McGrath
Mattie McGrath
Catherine Murphy
Maureen O'Sullivan
Thomas Pringle
Shane Ross
Mick Wallace

Of that list, Ross is a born-to-rule Fine Gaeler who likes to pose as a champion of the little guy – frequently turns up at bank shareholder meetings saying that he's there to fight the corner of retirees who sank all their savings into AIB shares, etc etc. Lowry is a FGer too, infamously kicked out of the party for making sure Denis O'Brien got the 086 mobile phone licence during his time as minister for communications. Healy-Rae, Fleming and Mattie McGrath are all typical parish pump Fianna Failers. Grealish used to be deputy leader of the Progressive Democrats. Finian McGrath is all over the place politically, tends towards left-wing beliefs but publicly and shamefully supported Bertie Ahern's 2007 government (i.e. at a time when it was total public knowledge that Ahern was corrupt). Donnelly is basically a centrist but currently running on a "things must change, enough is enough" platform. The rest are lefties.

[Duncan Gardner]

The 2016 Irish election is over!

Thanks GC. The Transgender candidate is standing in West Belfast, could b interesting there if plenty of previously nationalist voters shun SF again.

[Diable Rouge]

The 2016 Irish election is over!

Green Calx wrote: Excluding the small left-wing parties there are currently 14 independents in the Dail.

Stephen Donnelly
Ming Flanagan
Tom Fleming
Noel Grealish
John Halligan
Michael Healy-Rae
Michael Lowry
Finian McGrath
Mattie McGrath
Catherine Murphy
Maureen O'Sullivan
Thomas Pringle
Shane Ross
Mick Wallace

Of that list, Ross is a born-to-rule Fine Gaeler who likes to pose as a champion of the little guy – frequently turns up at bank shareholder meetings saying that he's there to fight the corner of retirees who sank all their savings into AIB shares, etc etc. Lowry is a FGer too, infamously kicked out of the party for making sure Denis O'Brien got the 086 mobile phone licence during his time as minister for communications. Healy-Rae, Fleming and Mattie McGrath are all typical parish pump Fianna Failers. Grealish used to be deputy leader of the Progressive Democrats. Finian McGrath is all over the place politically, tends towards left-wing beliefs but publicly and shamefully supported Bertie Ahern's 2007 government (i.e. at a time when it was total public knowledge that Ahern was corrupt). Donnelly is basically a centrist but currently running on a "things must change, enough is enough" platform. The rest are lefties.

The Social Democrats won't appreciate you classing Murphy and Donnelly as independents, even if their 14 candidates are essentially running as such. Also, Ross, Fitzmaurice, Fleming, Halligan and Finian McGrath have labelled themselves as "Independent Alliance", a cynical attempt to claim a Cabinet seat, without the responsibilities of party membership.

[Tubby Isaacs]

The 2016 Irish election is over!

Those independents sound like somthing out of Welsh local government.

Thanks for the book suggestion, GC, ordered that.

But I'm thinking more of the longer term change. Must have done something right, whether by design or accident, rather than just in terms of the property boom.

[anton pulisov]

The 2016 Irish election is over!

The boom can basically be broken into two parts. The Celtic Tiger and the property boom.

The Celtic Tiger was due in part to some good policy decisions (free third level education), in part due to subsidies to US tech companies in the form of low corporation tax, and in part to luck (being a low wage, native English speaking population inside the EU market when the global tech economy was about to take off.) The Celtic Tiger grew from around 1995 to 2001 and was impressive growth (6 pc per annum). It couldn't grow forever of course, and Ireland had caught up to western European GDP around 2001. The Celtic Tiger was still alive at this stage, but had stopped growing.

Around 2001, the vested interests that control FF realised that Ireland was ripe to be pumped full of mortgage debt, because being in the Euro meant that interest rates were too low and there was no exchange rate mechanism to worry about. FF were happy to go along with it because it meant continued 6 pc GDP growth per annum. The resulting debt fuelled GDP growth caused a massive ponzi scheme in the property market and everybody felt rich. This would be around the time when news stories appeared about Irish people doing christmas shopping in New York. The government was making a killing as well, because they were taking in a ton in VAT and property tax, and giving it to civil servants in the form of huge wage increases. As a result, living costs and wages were driven up massively nationwide. When the subprime bubble collapsed, Ireland had a double whammy of one of the biggest property bubbles in history collapsing combined with a lot of the tech companies leaving because Irish wages had become uncompetitive (compared to newer EU members such as Poland).

Basically, if the politicians had just done their job in 2001 and reigned in the growth a bit when the Celtic Tiger had run its course, Ireland would be in a much better situation today. Wim Duisenberg, head of the ECB at the time, was telling the Irish government to do this, but they essentially told him to fuck off.

But of course, nobody saw any of it coming, as Bertie keeps repeating. It was all de Lehman Brudders.

[Tubby Isaacs]

The 2016 Irish election is over!

Thanks for this. Something more on the early "Celtic Tiger" is what I need- Ship of Fools covers the latter quite well.

What about even earlier though? Debt was got under control in the late 80s, which was an achievement of sorts.

Edit- shows how ignorant I am. I assumed that this controlling of the debt was the same time Haughey said "We're living beyond our means". I now see that was in 1980, as his government proceded to live beyond its means.

[Tubby Isaacs]

The 2016 Irish election is over!

Basically, if the politicians had just done their job in 2001 and reigned in the growth a bit when the Celtic Tiger had run its course, Ireland would be in a much better situation today. Wim Duisenberg, head of the ECB at the time, was telling the Irish government to do this, but they essentially told him to fuck off.

Cheers, I keep telling people on other boards it was Wim Kok.

[anton pulisov]

The 2016 Irish election is over!

Tubby Isaacs wrote: Thanks for this. Something more on the early "Celtic Tiger" is what I need- Ship of Fools covers the latter quite well.

What about even earlier though? Debt was got under control in the late 80s, which was an achievement of sorts.

Edit- shows how ignorant I am. I assumed that this controlling of the debt was the same time Haughey said "We're living beyond our means". I now see that was in 1980, as his government proceded to live beyond its means.

Yeah, Haughey left a stinking mess behind him and it was up to Garett Fitzgerald to take care of it. Being a Fine Gaeler, his answer was austerity, which in turn resulted in mass emigration. We emigrated in '86. Fianna Fail did their usual populist shite in opposition and were duly reelected in 1987. Hence the 'giveaway' pre-election FG budget this time around.

The most important Irish election in recent history, with the benefit of hindsight, was probably the one in 1997. If that rainbow coalition had held on to power then they would have benefitted from the bulk of the Celtic Tiger and NI peace process, allowing them to gain popular support and be re-elected in 2002. And they might not have driven the Irish economy off a cliff like Bertie did. Unfortunately John Bruton was the wrong man at the wrong time (which is all the time in the case of John Bruton).

Emigration has always been the solution to Irelands woes. It's the main difference between Greece and Ireland. There is massive youth unemployment in Ireland and Greece. 20% of 19-25 year olds in Ireland left. That' a lot of savings on dole payments. There's a section on the Irish Times website called "Generation Emigration" and it tries to describe what emigration will be like for all these young people leaving nowadays and their connection to the country. I'll tell them. The 1980s wave of emigration has been completely forgotten in Ireland. Wiped from the national psyche, like the 1950s wave before it. The same fate awaits the current generation of emigrants. The Irish media indulge on a massive emigrant guilt trip every Christmas, detailing how they are all coming "home" for Christmas. The hypocrisy of a country that cast these people out demanding they come home for Christmas. And Ryanair and Aer Lingus jack up their prices around the Christmas period. Welcome home! And for what. Brussels sprouts, haha.

I have dual Swedish citizenship since a few weeks ago. I am now eligible to vote in Swedish elections even though I live in Amsterdam. The next Swedish general election will be the first general election I will vote for in my life. I am in my mid-30s. A country that could actually give a shit about its citizens. It has really made me think.

[Duncan Gardner]

The 2016 Irish election is over!

Congratulations [strike]Mynheer[/strike], er Herre*.

The Irish Republic's attitude to its 'diaspora' is indeed off-hand. Unless they have a son or grandson good at football, maybe

* I know, but isn't Danish very similar

[Diable Rouge]

The 2016 Irish election is over!

Meanwhile, John Delaney continues to endear himself to Irish soccer fans, by endorsing Labour dauphin/clown prince Alan Kelly's re-election campaign.

[Tubby Isaacs]

The 2016 Irish election is over!

Cheers, Bryan. That's all interesting stuff.

I remember having Irish emigration brought home to me by, of all things, Football Focus. Someone was going through a photo of a junior football. It was like Dad's Army.

He's emigrated.
He's emigrated.
etc

[anton pulisov]

The 2016 Irish election is over!

The best comparison between 1980s Ireland and boom time 2000s Ireland has to be the Apres Match spoof of advertising from both eras:

1980s: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tTW5xZJ_NaI

2000s: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sP4HbMPFBiQ

I nearly pissed myself.

"live in elegant style, in a house yet to be built, in a town that doesn't exist, with money that you don't even have."

[Duncan Gardner]

The 2016 Irish election is over!

If a non-party TD was kidnapped by the Bon Jovis before being murdered then buried on a beach near Dundalk, would they be Martin's Indy Landfill?