Bonfire of the Liberals.

[Bored Of Education]

I know that this has been covered to an extent on other threads but it is probably good to discuss the upcoming decimation of the Liberals in the next election. What does everyone think?

Don Foster has already mentioned that he is leaving the sinking ship and the South West, obviously, has been the Liberals heartland as such. Now he's 66 so, perhaps, it is a genuine exit. However, I doubt whether any new incumbent is going to win, they reduced their hold by 5% last time and the Tories will get in.

57 seats last time, half as many this? UKIP aren't putting up enough to overtake them as third party, I don't think, but they should still be pretty much blown out of the water. Of course, at some point, it may have been a hope that such destruction would see them leaving the right-central ground occupied by the other two. However, I think that they will act like a club that has dropped out of the EPL after one season and spends big to get back up there bankrupting themselves in the process.

[E10 Rifle]

Bonfire of the Liberals.

I don't know what the Greens' electoral thinking is, but I'd have thought they should be pouring what resources they have into making headway in the south-west. Given that this isn't an area with habitual Labour-voting tendencies. [/choppy waters-style chin-stroking]

Am anticipating (tough wood) with particular relish the defeats they might take in London - Hughes, Featherstone and the likes. Though I'd imagine Cable and that SW London lot are safe.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Bonfire of the Liberals.

Last time the Greens ran against Labour Campaign Group member, David Drew, in Stroud.

I imagine they'll do so again, but I can't see much point.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Bonfire of the Liberals.

57 Eastleighs!

[Tubby Isaacs]

Bonfire of the Liberals.

It says here that there have been 8 retirements out of 57.

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/timwigmore/100253623/another-lib-dem-mp-has-had-enough-and-its-great-news-for-the-tories/

There are apparently still 5 over 65s who haven't decided to retire. I'd expect a few more to do so.

Apparently the older MPs resent having seen the younger ones promoted above them- Titans like Jo Swinson and Danny Alexander.

If they still don't get that they were taken over by the Orange Book clique, I'm surprised they can get their shit in the pan by themselves.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_Kingdom_Liberal_Democrat_MPs_(2010% E2%80%93)

Don't know who the unretired oldies are. Cable is one. Ah yes, Mike Hancock is one.

Gordon Birtwhistle is dead meat in Burnley anyway.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Bonfire of the Liberals.

They've actually got a lot of decent majorities between them, the Lib Dems. They might hold on to about 30.

Going to be fun watching them reverse ferret from "we get all those second places, it's not fair" to "who gives a shit if we hold on to our strongholds?"

[Duncan Gardner]

Bonfire of the Liberals.

Bored of Education wrote: the South West, obviously, has been the Liberals heartland as such

One of two, as they also won 11 seats in Scotland (there are 14 in SW England).

Their closest challengers in the 57 seats were 38 Tory, 17 Labour and 2 Nationalists.

UKIP aren't putting up enough to overtake them as third party

If you're counting seats, DUP are and will likely remain the fourth-largest party ahead of NF and co

However, I think that they will act like a club that has dropped out of the EPL after one season and spends big to get back up there bankrupting themselves in the process

Who's giving a parachute payment?

E10 Rifle wrote: I don't know what the Greens' electoral thinking is

In order of priority

* hold Lucas in Brighton, as her profile in Westminster is important in getting media coverage beyond
* consolidate in Brussels, hold existing seats and push for a gain or two outside London and SE
* continue to get councillors elected as widely as possible

but I'd have thought they should be pouring what resources they have into making headway in the south-west. Given that this isn't an area with habitual Labour-voting tendencies

Could be interesting locally in the Euros, after which the priorities above may re-jig.

Tubby Isaacs wrote: They've actually got a lot of decent majorities between them, the Lib Dems. They might hold on to about 30

Aye, 35 of those winners got more than 45% in their areas. The party has been pretty successful in building up local support.

[Bored Of Education]

Bonfire of the Liberals.

Duncan Gardner wrote:

the South West, obviously, has been the Liberals heartland as such

One of two, as they also won 11 seats in Scotland (there are 14 in SW England).

Bloody hell, that's right. If that isn't a clusterfuck to plan, I don't know what is. Should Scotland still be there in 2015, I would imagine, they may do OK but I can't show you the working out for that.

[Bored Of Education]

Bonfire of the Liberals.

Duncan Gardner wrote:

the South West, obviously, has been the Liberals heartland as such

However, I think that they will act like a club that has dropped out of the EPL after one season and spends big to get back up there bankrupting themselves in the process

Who's giving a parachute payment?.

True, they are going to have trouble holding onto their deposits in a lot of places.

[Guy Profumo]

Bonfire of the Liberals.

FWIW I think they'll have 31 seats after the next election.

[Bored Of Education]

Bonfire of the Liberals.

28-31 so that is basically South West and Scotland. 11 of those seats are in an area that might not be voting after 2016. Actually, that's a thought - if Scotland votes for independence this year and it goes through in 2016, will they be able to vote in 2015?

[Rogin the Armchair fan]

Bonfire of the Liberals.

All first-past-the-post electoral systems naturally gravitate towards a direct "us or them" vote, really. Either structurally - like the French Presidential election system, where only the top two candidates from a multi-candidate vote "face off" in a final vote - or systemically, like the American system where both of the two parties now represent such a myriad of views that it's hard to imagine a Boston Democrat agreeing with everything an Alabaman Democrat believed in, yet a "party" they are, just the same.

The British system has been weird for decades in that it has been first past the post but has always had this rather large third party in the middle, never properly represented by a PR system (because we never had, and never will, have one) who will never form either a government in their own right, nor an official opposition, but have always presented an opportunity to be at the very least an annoyance in any particular constituency and, occasionally, to be coalition partner with a minority government. They've done that on both sides, now, with Labour in the 70s and the Tories now, and on both occasions have ended up being derided for their part in it.

I wonder, now, after this latest escapade, if it's time for all Liberals to finally admit defeat (in terms of being a party in their own right) and drift off to become either wet Tories or the tough free-market edge of Labour, and see if we end up with something like the looser two-party system that exists in the States.

[Duncan Gardner]

Bonfire of the Liberals.

Those LibDem wins in 2010:



@Rogin- while extending STV or similar to Westminster elections looks a long way off at the moment, I wouldn't say never. Both UKIP's rise and the SNP winning overall in a STV poll seemed unlikely not so long ago.

The LibDems struggle for a USP. 'Liberalism' too vague, no tuition fees they abandoned and PR is of no interest to anyone but us geeks. At least all the Unionists want a border and all the Greens agree everyone else should use less energy

[Bored Of Education]

Bonfire of the Liberals.

PR is dead in water. The Coalition and the capitulation of the Liberals has seen to that.

Rogin, I am not sure whether you think that the two party system will be good. I think it will be disastrous. Like America, it will essentially be a one part state with both fighting over very slight increments from the right of centre. I am not happy with the death of the Liberals. Not for what they are but for the presence of a third party presenting something vaguely different from the other two (which, of course, the Liberals no longer represent).

Obviously, I would prefer it to be Left Unity especially in Bath but there has to be a third party that isn't the Liberals or, obviously, UKIP

[Tubby Isaacs]

Bonfire of the Liberals.

The local elections are going to be fun for the Lib Dems.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_local_elections,_2014

Would be nice to see them get hit in Sutton and Kingston, and see their awful MPs have their base sawn away at. All seats there are up for reelection.

12 out of 21 Haringey councillors are retiring.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Bonfire of the Liberals.

The LibDems struggle for a USP. 'Liberalism' too vague, no tuition fees they abandoned and PR is of no interest to anyone but us geeks. At least all the Unionists want a border and all the Greens agree everyone else should use less energy

Indeed. Do you ever look at Lib Dem Voice?
There's often someone saying "it's in line with our Liberal heritage to do X". I think free schools are, because as Liberals, we don't look to the state for all the answers.

Nobody sounds very convinced.

One of their more convincing tunes was civil liberties. That got chucked away when they sat behind a desk and saw their first intelligence report. I used to know someone who worked in that area who was no fool and she said she saw a lot of very frightening stuff. Which is not to say you have to believe it all, but there is a genuine test of nerve there.

Suddenly, they discovered the "difficult balance". Lucky they could look to their Liberal heritage to find an answer.

[alyxandr]

Bonfire of the Liberals.

Bored of Education wrote: I am not sure whether you think that the two party system will be good. I think it will be disastrous. Like America, it will essentially be a one part state with both fighting over very slight increments from the right of centre.

And "right of centre" is being extremely polite; more like the Batshit-Crazy Right vs. the Slightly-Less-So, which is precisely the sort of Hobson's choice that massively turns off most voters except the, well, batshit-crazy, and so on, in a positively-reinforcing loop of batshit crazy.

Are the Greens really that far out of the picture over there? That's depressing.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Bonfire of the Liberals.

Are the Greens really that far out of the picture over there? That's depressing.

Yeah, they're nowhere. In 2010 they lost 327 out of 335 deposits.

They lost quite a few running against Socialist candidates from Labour. People's Front of Judea.

[Duncan Gardner]

Bonfire of the Liberals.

Tubby Isaacs wrote: They lost quite a few running against Socialist candidates from Labour. People's Front of Judea

Ouch.

Greens are a national party standing on a platform well to the left of Labour. And so need to contest as many seats as possible. The main consideration is raising the deposit, not agonising about how socialist David Drew, Diane Abbott or John McDonnell is.

That said, there are a number of local no-contest deals at the Council level.

The Python argument applies in reverse there, where Greens are challenged by TUSC and the like who get single-figure votes (ie, they can't get all their seconders to support).

Deposits lost in 2010:

Lib Dem 0
Conservative 2
Labour 5

BNP 266
Green 328
UKIP 459

SNP 0
DUP 0
Sinn Fein 4
Plaid Cymru 13

I imagine the LibDem and UKIP figures will move closer...

Note: the general election deposit, now 5% used to be 12.5%. Many in the Labour and Conservative parties would welcome its return, for the reason Rogin suggests above. I'd prefer 1%, to widen the choice while restricting Lord Buckethead and his pals to the occasional stunt.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Bonfire of the Liberals.

They only stood in about half the seats, so they're not really national. Stroud I suppose is a special case because there are Green councillors, but I can't see any point throwing away £500 on Islington North or Hayes and Harlington. I don't say all Greens would vote for the Labour left-winger.

I can't believe the RMT are going to carry on with TUSC much longer. There's no point in them standing against the Greens.

[E10 Rifle]

Bonfire of the Liberals.

TUSC is probably doomed - the Trot parties that underpin it are in decline, and I doubt they can afford much more.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Bonfire of the Liberals.

How do they write this stuff with a straight face:

There are signs that Danny Alexander, the powerful chief secretary to the Treasury and one of the coalition's chief architects, is positioning himself as Mr Clegg's natural successor.

The Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch & Strathspey MP has strengthened his team with the appointments of Peter Carroll, the founder of the successful Fair Fuel campaign, and Scottish Lib Dems communications guru Graeme Littlejohn.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/nick-cleggs-rivals-for-the-lib-dems-leadership-told-to-rev-up-9131144.html

[E10 Rifle]

Bonfire of the Liberals.

To continue the Office analogies, that's Danny Alexander there, assistant to the regional manager

[Tubby Isaacs]

Bonfire of the Liberals.

Ha, ha.

Gareth got the Brentmeister's job though, didn't he?

You can imagine him planning the Christmas Party. I bet you could get him to put "girls" down. As suggested by Lord Rennard.

[E10 Rifle]

Bonfire of the Liberals.

I'd love it if Alexander did actually become Brent's successor - they'd be finished. They'd be better off with the Og-monster TBH