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2024 Democratic Primaries

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    2024 Democratic Primaries

    Is Joe Biden aiming to stand again, even though he'd be 82 by the time he's sworn in again were he to win the next election, and potentially 86 by the time his second term finished? Would there be a candidate willing to take up a "time to go, Joe" campaign, on that basis? If Joe himself were to step aside would his annointed successor run effectively unopposed in his place, and would that necessarily be Kamala Harris?

    #2
    Yes, he is planning to stand again. I imagine that this means most potential challengers within the party will stand aside. However he won't run unopposed - there already is at least one challenger, Marianne Williamson

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      #3
      There’s also RFK Jr, who is running the very funny campaign of what if I was a boring democrat on everything except vaccines. He’s even defended the CIA!

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        #4
        Defending the CIA is par for the course for Democrats since Trump. The enemy of my enemy is my friend and all that.

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          #5
          The US right are very very excited about RFK and about the fact that he’s polling at about 10%. They keep thinking he has a real chance to exploit the fact that Biden’s support is broad but weak. It’s good comedy.

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            #6
            If I had Rogin's time machine, I would have used it to travel more than twelve months away

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              #7
              Originally posted by ursus arctos View Post
              If I had Rogin's time machine, I would have used it to travel more than twelve months away
              Yeah, definitely dinosaurs (Triassic) and then one of Jesus’s gigs.

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                #8
                Oxygen levels were only about half what they are now during the Triassic, so you'd have felt very out of breath and light-headed, apparently like being at Everest base camp. Only much much hotter.

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                  #9
                  I had no idea. Dodged a bullet there.

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                    #10
                    I can't recall an incumbent ever losing a primary election, or even being significantly pushed, unless you define that to include Ted Kennedy getting 37.58% versus Carter's 51.13% in 1980.

                    (Wiki: "As of 2023, Kennedy remains the last challenger to defeat an incumbent in any of his/her party's statewide presidential primary contests").
                    Last edited by Satchmo Distel; 28-05-2023, 22:59.

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                      #11
                      Using the cumulative popular vote in the primaries is a bit strange, especially given the number of caucuses/favourite sons/weird calendars/simultaneous contests and other factors that can have a very significant effect on turnout and individual results.

                      It is worth noting that Ted won 12 statewide primaries in 1980.

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                        #12
                        He was always playing catch-up though because Carter built a big lead in primary wins before Kennedy started winning most of his 12.

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                          #13
                          I recall cheering on Kennedy for some obscure Nostradamus reference. In my defence, I was still living in Rotherham at the time...

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                            #14
                            Nostradamus was also said to have predicted the assassinations of each of his brothers

                            I think of that period as being Peak Nostradamus

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                              #15
                              I suppose a counterfactual is Kennedy running in 1972-76 had it not been for Chappaquiddick (which Nostradamus had failed to predict - I'm sure I'm not the first person to think of that joke).

                              EDIT: This film claimed he did predict it:

                              https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Man_Who_Saw_Tomorrow

                              https://religion.culture.narkive.com/1W3fC4kt/was-nostradamus-a-prophet
                              Last edited by Satchmo Distel; 28-05-2023, 23:48.

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                                #16
                                It's really impossible to know what the reaction to Ted would have been in either 72 or 76 if Chappaquidick hadn't happened, in part because the entire incident reinforced an existing view that he wasn't a serious person and that "the Kennedys" were willing to do anything for power.

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                                  #17
                                  Reagan pushed Ford pretty hard in 1976, which is perhaps not that well remembered outside the USA. Despite that, it took too long (at least in the UK coverage) for him to be taken seriously in 1980. If there had been Google back then, I reckon "B movie actor" would have got more search results globally than "Governor of California".

                                  Obviously Ford is not really analogous to Presidents Biden or Carter being challenged, as those Presidents have/had been elected, not shoulder-tapped by one who resigned in disgrace.

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                                    #18
                                    Reagan's win in 1980 has felt, in retrospect, inevitable but it wasn't at the time. The evangelicals and the "welfare queens" racism were pivotal.

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                                      #19
                                      And the Embassy stuff.

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                                        #20
                                        That's what I was thinking about. It was probably the failed rescue that finished Carter off, as far as we over here could see.

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                                          #21
                                          Which is why the Reagan team made sure that the hostages wouldn't be released until after the inauguration.

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                                            #22
                                            Let’s not forget Carter kinda stunk. There was a reason Kennedy attempted to primary him in the first place, which was that he was responding with a watered down version of Bible thumping* to stagflation, which along with austerity, micromanaging everything and a deregulatory attitude was causing a lot of problems. The liberal side of the party was very keen to get him out of there, hence Ted’s primary run.

                                            *worth remembering too that Carter was and is an evangelical Christian, and the radicalisation of evangelicals was not even fully in swing yet, much less completed. The real fracturing in the New Deal coalition came from white ethnics, the fabled Reagan Democrats, who came from a place of both racial animus (eg busing) and labour unrest. Carter’s deregulation and austerity pissed off a lot of trade unions, and several endorsed Reagan, most famously PATCO, the air traffic controllers union.​
                                            Last edited by Flynnie; 30-05-2023, 11:15.

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                                              #23
                                              You have a very solid handle on that period for someone of your age.

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                                                #24
                                                Rick Perlstein's "Reaganland" is forensic and merciless on Carter's flaws. It also, I must admit, refutes some assumptions held by Brits that Reagan was not very bright. He wasn't Trump or even Bush 2 based on what I recall from Perlstein. But what we also know (from the above) is that Reagan's economic recovery and Cold War strategizing was facilitated by massively increasing the national debt.
                                                Last edited by Satchmo Distel; 30-05-2023, 14:01.

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                                                  #25
                                                  Yeah, Perlstein is really good on Reagan's rat-like cunning and eye for the bigger picture (with Nancy always very happy to help him out if he was wobbly on anything).

                                                  Taubman's biog of Gorbachev makes the compelling case that the arms reduction talks with Gorbachev were really felt by Reagan personally, having grown up before the bomb and really thinking it was the duty of every person - especially a Christian person - to rid the world of them. That such a hawk as eagan could see a bigger virtue than US military glory was really surprising (and, it seems to me, the last of his type in senior office)

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