Is Joe Biden aiming to stand again, even though he'd be 82 by the time he's sworn in again were he to win the next election, and potentially 86 by the time his second term finished? Would there be a candidate willing to take up a "time to go, Joe" campaign, on that basis? If Joe himself were to step aside would his annointed successor run effectively unopposed in his place, and would that necessarily be Kamala Harris?
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I can't recall an incumbent ever losing a primary election, or even being significantly pushed, unless you define that to include Ted Kennedy getting 37.58% versus Carter's 51.13% in 1980.
(Wiki: "As of 2023, Kennedy remains the last challenger to defeat an incumbent in any of his/her party's statewide presidential primary contests").Last edited by Satchmo Distel; 28-05-2023, 22:59.
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Using the cumulative popular vote in the primaries is a bit strange, especially given the number of caucuses/favourite sons/weird calendars/simultaneous contests and other factors that can have a very significant effect on turnout and individual results.
It is worth noting that Ted won 12 statewide primaries in 1980.
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I suppose a counterfactual is Kennedy running in 1972-76 had it not been for Chappaquiddick (which Nostradamus had failed to predict - I'm sure I'm not the first person to think of that joke).
EDIT: This film claimed he did predict it:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Man_Who_Saw_Tomorrow
https://religion.culture.narkive.com/1W3fC4kt/was-nostradamus-a-prophetLast edited by Satchmo Distel; 28-05-2023, 23:48.
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It's really impossible to know what the reaction to Ted would have been in either 72 or 76 if Chappaquidick hadn't happened, in part because the entire incident reinforced an existing view that he wasn't a serious person and that "the Kennedys" were willing to do anything for power.
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Reagan pushed Ford pretty hard in 1976, which is perhaps not that well remembered outside the USA. Despite that, it took too long (at least in the UK coverage) for him to be taken seriously in 1980. If there had been Google back then, I reckon "B movie actor" would have got more search results globally than "Governor of California".
Obviously Ford is not really analogous to Presidents Biden or Carter being challenged, as those Presidents have/had been elected, not shoulder-tapped by one who resigned in disgrace.
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Let’s not forget Carter kinda stunk. There was a reason Kennedy attempted to primary him in the first place, which was that he was responding with a watered down version of Bible thumping* to stagflation, which along with austerity, micromanaging everything and a deregulatory attitude was causing a lot of problems. The liberal side of the party was very keen to get him out of there, hence Ted’s primary run.
*worth remembering too that Carter was and is an evangelical Christian, and the radicalisation of evangelicals was not even fully in swing yet, much less completed. The real fracturing in the New Deal coalition came from white ethnics, the fabled Reagan Democrats, who came from a place of both racial animus (eg busing) and labour unrest. Carter’s deregulation and austerity pissed off a lot of trade unions, and several endorsed Reagan, most famously PATCO, the air traffic controllers union.Last edited by Flynnie; 30-05-2023, 11:15.
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Rick Perlstein's "Reaganland" is forensic and merciless on Carter's flaws. It also, I must admit, refutes some assumptions held by Brits that Reagan was not very bright. He wasn't Trump or even Bush 2 based on what I recall from Perlstein. But what we also know (from the above) is that Reagan's economic recovery and Cold War strategizing was facilitated by massively increasing the national debt.Last edited by Satchmo Distel; 30-05-2023, 14:01.
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Yeah, Perlstein is really good on Reagan's rat-like cunning and eye for the bigger picture (with Nancy always very happy to help him out if he was wobbly on anything).
Taubman's biog of Gorbachev makes the compelling case that the arms reduction talks with Gorbachev were really felt by Reagan personally, having grown up before the bomb and really thinking it was the duty of every person - especially a Christian person - to rid the world of them. That such a hawk as eagan could see a bigger virtue than US military glory was really surprising (and, it seems to me, the last of his type in senior office)
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