2024 Republican Primaries

[Satchmo Distel]

Because he can use his state staff to fundraise for his campaign; and his fascist laws keep him in the news.

As soon as he loses the privileges of being a Governor, he's fucked.

The normal logic is to wait for 2028 because Trump and Biden will be gone but he has no resources or media presence to drive a campaign after 2026.

[San Bernardhinault]

Is he term limited out in '26?

[ursus arctos]

His current term ends in January 2027, at which time he is term limited

[The Awesome Berbaslug!!!]

Because he's an embarrassingly obvious fascist grifter, who has next to no chance of making it to the next election cycle without either exploding or winding up in serious legal trouble?

[ursus arctos]

There is a real question as to what his next act will be

[Satchmo Distel]

He can't criticize Trump without inviting a storm of shit and alienating the base so I can only really see an endgame of his hoping that Trump has to withdraw on health grounds (or Trump dying). His worst nightmare must be Trump challenging him to a TV debate, conducted according to Trump's rules, whereupon he's truly fucked.

[Mr Beast]

De Santis’s campaign launch was great because it made both him and Musk look like a couple of cunts. Even more than usual.

Trump is obviously going to win the nomination and my sympathy to all US based posters because this election cycle and the aftermath are going to be even more deranged than the last one.

[San Bernardhinault]

He can't criticize Trump without inviting a storm of shit and alienating the base so I can only really see an endgame of his hoping that Trump has to withdraw on health grounds (or Trump dying). His worst nightmare must be Trump challenging him to a TV debate, conducted according to Trump's rules, whereupon he's truly fucked.

Yeah. His main hope now is a complete Trump collapse for whatever reason (legal - unlikely to cause him to withdraw, health - unlikely, complete meltdown - unlikely to bother his supporters). Then he's left as the "most serious" candidate still standing. But I think if Trump collapsed it would draw in hordes of others - Rubio and Cruz and Pompeo and Cotton and Christie and Sununu and many others who think the job is morally theirs. Which would not make DeSantis's run a simple coronation.

[ursus arctos]

We know that an indictment won't matter, and I would suggest that it is deranged to think that a conviction would have a material impact.

Which leaves death or profound disability, which ain't a great thing to be betting on.

[The Awesome Berbaslug!!!]

Having watched some videos of trump in action over the last eighteen months, he's aged a lot. His 2020 campaign was very low energy compared to 2016, I would be curious to see how he's going to pull this one off. I would wonder how far he can walk for instance. God knows he wasn't one of history's great perambulating presidents in 2017

[ursus arctos]

He is going to run a front porch campaign as a challenger, which won't matter a bit to his base

[Satchmo Distel]

His helicopter will fly him between rallies, which I suspect will get shorter as he will run out of puff within an hour. Probably more support acts to pad them out.

Who would be the support act at a DeSantis rally apart from the Florida parasites with whom he has a quid pro quo?

[ad hoc]

If anyone needed more reasons to hate De Santis (content warning:contains graphic descriptions of torture)

https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2...f-ron-desantis

[ursus arctos]

https://twitter.com/jacobkornbluh/status/1663609939502268420?s=61&t=xvOireV8JOIS_CpbTtDBow

[caja-dglh]

What is the purpose of someone like Christie running? Vanity? Raising / keeping campaign funds that he can try to live off? It just doesn't seem to make any sense.

[ursus arctos]

As perplexing as candidates like Christie are, the people who continue to give them millions are even more perplexing.

Bill De Blasio is a prime example of this in the other party.

[ursus arctos]

https://twitter.com/politics_polls/status/1663573380174344194?s=61&t=xvOireV8JOIS_CpbTtDBow

[ursus arctos]

https://twitter.com/mehdirhasan/status/1663632555130732546?s=61&t=xvOireV8JOIS_CpbTtDBow

[ursus arctos]

https://twitter.com/samstein/status/1663647830328614914?s=61&t=xvOireV8JOIS_CpbTtDBow]

[San Bernardhinault]

https://twitter.com/mehdirhasan/status/1663632555130732546?s=61&t=xvOireV8JOIS_CpbTtDBow

The amazing thing there is elder care. Fucking over the teachers is absolutely what you'd expect from him. But fucking over old people seems deeply counter-productive as they make up something like 90% of Florida's population and 99% of his voter base.

[ursus arctos]

According to 2019 US population estimates, population of Florida by age is 20,278,447, out of these 9,914,361 are male, 10,364,086 are female, The sex ratio of Florida is 957. The Florida population by age are, under 15 years is 3,392,296, 15 years and over is 16,886,151, 30 years and over is 13,057,544, 65 years and over is 3,926,889 and 85 years and over is 522,530. 48.89 percent are male, 51.11 percent are female, 16.73 percent are under 15 years old, 83.27 percent are 15 years and over, 64.39 percent are 30 years and over, 19.36 percent are 65 years and over, 2.58 percent are 85 years and over.

[Lang Spoon]

Not many older men at all.

[ursus arctos]

No

The demographics of Florida are widely misunderstood, even by many in the state

[Satchmo Distel]

Hence why DeSantis was happy to let old people die in large numbers during COVID in order to "get businesses and schools back open." It's Social Darwinism.

And the old people who do live here will skew extremely conservative, given that many come here as white flight.

[San Bernardhinault]

It’s really that last point that is why I’m surprised that he’s fucking them over. The other stuff was just a gag.