War in Ukraine

[Tratorello]

I have a million thoughts about this but one of the major ones is considering Putin's reputation as a master tactician this invasion seems to have been hastily and ill prepared. To launch a ground attack when you haven't achieved anything like air superiority is madness and appears to have had disastrous consequences for the Russians.

They appear to have tried to go for a quick strike, with attempted coup de main attacks on key infrastructure, including airports/airfields but without the aforementioned air superiority these appear to have gone very badly. Russian ground forces, from the videos I've seen, mostly don't appear to be front line elite units but conscript National Guard types. Most of the vehicles and equipment don't look like modern, top line stuff.

The Ukrainian's are posting videos of burnt out trucks, wheeled APCs etc rather than MBTs and cutting edge armoured vehicles, which suggests that either they are not in theatre or the Ukrainians have let those push forward and then ambushed backline units.

The Ukrainian's seem to have plenty of modern AT and AA missiles, access to Western intelligence and have been well trained (the British Army were training them in AT tactics until a few weeks ago). They seem to have fought incredibly well.

My worry now is that to save face Putin starts just levelling cities.

[Tratorello]

One quick thing, wars are won by being good at the boring stuff, economics and logistics, neither of which I would suggest are Russia's strongest suits. A prolonged campaign accentuates both of these problems which is, presumably, why Putin risked a quick strike without full air cover.

[Tactical Genius]

According to military people on TV, the scope of his objectives will need to be narrowed at present to avoid being spread too thin in Ukraine. The consensus appears to be that it hasn't gone to plan so far.

Not sure what the plan was but Russia were never going to roll in easy. The Ukrainians have had 7 years to prepare and have been stocking up on western weapons and military intelligence (which is helping them right now).
They have run through potential Russian invasion scenarios a million times so what whatever the Russian do will not be a surprise.

[Tratorello]

Also, I think China was planning on taking Taiwan in a more efficient and insidious manner.

If anything this proves to China that an invasion of Taiwan is close to impossible.

To invade Taiwan the Chinese have to cross 100 miles of ocean. Invasions are really hard, as Putin is finding out, invasions involving opposed amphibious landings are an order of magnitude more difficult especially when you would be going up against a country backed by the World's most powerful Navy/military.

[Bruno]

Not sure what the plan was but Russia were never going to roll in easy. The Ukrainians have had 7 years to prepare and have been stocking up on western weapons and military intelligence (which is helping them right now).
They have run through potential Russian invasion scenarios a million times so what whatever the Russian do will not be a surprise.

Their assumption is the plan depended on less resistance I guess.

[Bruno]

Thomas Friedman opens his column today with "The seven most dangerous words in journalism are: 'The world will never be the same.' In over four decades of reporting, I have rarely dared use that phrase."

Will he dare to again? Find out in the next sentence.

[Bruno]

Globalization makes this war different from all the others.

[Bruno]

Welcome to World War Wired — the first war in a totally interconnected world. This will be the Cossacks meet the World Wide Web. Like I said, you haven’t been here before.

[Lang Spoon]

What an egregious cunt. He was the no war if you've a McDonalds wasnt he?

[Bruno]

Yes, that's in the sublimely titled The Lexus and the Olive Tree. The original quote in the NY Times is "No two countries that both have a McDonald's have ever fought a war against each other." It's called the Golden Arches theory.

[NHH]

The second casualty of war is bollocks theories blown out of the water by contact with reality.

[The Red Max]

I've no idea how true it is, but the hackers at Anonymous are claiming to have infiltrated websites of the Russian, Belarus and Chechen governments, as well as the Russian Ministry of Defence.
Putin may have taken on a much larger foe than he first anticipated.

https://twitter.com/YourAnonTV/status/1496891433843888134?t=KAMahOc7EOV4dtd0rSWMQA&s=19

[Discordant Resonance]

One of the top Chechen commanders has been killed:

https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1497657772980244483

[Jimski]

Yeah, I'm not suggesting anyone gets them not to fight, just wondering whether it will prove worthwhile from their point of view. I can see it both ways tbh. It's a fucking nightmare with no easy answers.

Actually it seems I was perhaps completely wrong with my doubts on its being worth mounting a resistance.. Suddenly there seem to be a lot more positive noises (at least judging from this thread). Maybe Russia have actually bitten off more than they can chew.

[The Red Max]

Actually, you really have to hand it to Putin, as he seems to have invented time travel.

In the space of 72 hours he's set Russia back 30 years.

[Paul S]

Why can't we just fast forward to the end game where Putin commits suicide in his bunker? It would save an awful lot of hassle.

[The Red Max]

It's a common sentiment

https://twitter.com/StreetArtUtopia/status/1497237475735003142?t=0M3x1suoXEk9ZgNCsr0o5Q&s=19

[MsD]

All I can add is that my Russian friends who have hitherto been tolerant of Putin are completely pissed off with this. Previously, they were supportive of the way he stood up for Russian interests and thought he had a strong point re the South (Crimea, Rostov etc.). Also, Ukraine has benefited from Russian-built infrastructure and funding (but obviously that goes both ways as the SU moved labour all over). However, there is STRONG opposition to this invasion. Some blame is attached to the Ukrainian bloke for not compromising and listening to Russians in Ukraine, and who is now acting like Mr Big Bollocks (it is felt) encouraging people to fight. Personally, I don't think glorifying fighting is helpful in a war which is unnecessary, it's not like WW2 and these people have no real reason to kill each other.
But I don't know, just feel terribly sad at all this and hope something happens to stop it, maybe public opinion will give Putin pause, as nobody seems to be happy about it, the troops are inexperienced and under-equipped, unprepared for push-back and martyrdom from the Ukrainians. He's a patriot (in his own head) and this is hurting his country too much without tangible gain.

[Lang Spoon]

It's a common sentiment

https://twitter.com/StreetArtUtopia/status/1497237475735003142?t=0M3x1suoXEk9ZgNCsr0o5Q&s=19

At the very least I'm hoping for a poundshop Khrushchev style get the fuck off the big chair putsch. A Mussolini style end would be my favoured one, pour encourager les autres.

[Discordant Resonance]

It seems all 27 EU members will ban Russian planes from their airspace, and are turning their own planes around already.

[anton pulisov]

All flights to the far east via Dubai then? Good news for Emirates.

Alternatively, Anchorage airport could make a comeback.

[anton pulisov]

Hmm on second thoughts I guess the likes of Japan Airlines and Cathay Pacific will still be allowed to overfly Russia. Finnair's entire business plan is fucked though.

[ad hoc]

All flights to the far east via Dubai then? Good news for Emirates.

Alternatively, Anchorage airport could make a comeback.

İstanbul also. And Qatar which seems to be the biggest hub for Europe - East Asia

[Lang Spoon]

I hope these figures for the first two days are accurate.

https://twitter.com/MattMcBradley/status/1497672326606950409?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

[Lang Spoon]

I've no idea how true it is, but the hackers at Anonymous are claiming to have infiltrated websites of the Russian, Belarus and Chechen governments, as well as the Russian Ministry of Defence.
Putin may have taken on a much larger foe than he first anticipated.

https://twitter.com/YourAnonTV/status/1496891433843888134?t=KAMahOc7EOV4dtd0rSWMQA&s=19

if true that's hilarious, the cunts and their pissy hacking directly by the intelligence services or through financing 4chan type wankers and mafia scum has been tedious to say the least (like the targeting of western Healthcare services the last few years). I'd laugh like a drain if their infrastructure was banjaxed the way they've done to the Baltics in the past.