War in Ukraine

[Nefertiti2]

I'm saying that there appear to be good strategic reasons why the west would target NordStream 2- and Biden is on record as saying they would- whilst I can't see one good reasons why the Russians would.

Here's Johnson in February

https://twitter.com/nickgutteridge/status/1493201352880803844?s=20&t=g74V6vndryWORyXCUBR1wA

Your "Because Putin" is frankly laughable

[Patrick Thistle]

The USA maybe. The "west" not so much.

[Nefertiti2]

Best? Only.

What will make Russia withdraw?

I spoke to a Russian friend the other day who is an opponent of Putin and is extremely worried about the possibility of nuclear war.
They also said that regime change in Moscow will not necessarily make peace more likely.

[Sean of the Shed]

Your "Because Putin" is frankly laughable

You're right, it goes against all his previous common sense approach to this conflict.

[Satchmo Distel]

It could be neither - just a rogue actor.

[Nefertiti2]

You're right, it goes against all his previous common sense approach to this conflict.

I think Putin's position, whilst morally reprehensible, is perfectly consistent.

[DCI Harry Batt]

What will make Russia withdraw?

I don't know for sure what the most likely and speedy practicable way of getting Russia to withdraw is. That doesn't make it any less the only route to peace.

[Patrick Thistle]

Nah, he makes poor decisions. (Or his commanders do but it's all delegated authority.) Right back to invading based on the date of the Olympics closing ceremony, not when the roads were most passable.

As conspiracy theories go, Russia blowing up Nordstream and crediting the USA with it in the hope of undermining alliances between Western nations is not too far out. Its also reasonably consistent with Russia's approach of misinformation and sowing doubt.

(That's not my opinion btw before anyone goes off on one.)

[Nesta]

It could be neither - just a rogue actor.

Raises the question of just how hard it is to pull an operation of this scale off, and if there are any rogue actors not backed with the resources of a well-armed nation state who are capable of this.

[San Bernardhinault]

They also said that regime change in Moscow will not necessarily make peace more likely.

This appears to be both very true, and widely ignored in the west.

[Sean of the Shed]

It has been the case in most conflicts and can't be ignored, but in most cases intervention has had the most detrimental effect, such as Iraq, Afghanistan etc.

[Janik]

I don't know for sure what the most likely and speedy practicable way of getting Russia to withdraw is. That doesn't make it any less the only route to peace.

There isn't one. There can't be one, Russia is too big and powerful a country and army to be forced to do something utterly against their will. And it is always going to be against their will as for Russia to withdraw from this, after a commitment now lasting nearly a decade considering the Crimea and Donbas campaigns that were the platform for this year's full invasion, is for them to acknowledge they have no ability to project power - which is precisely what they would be admitting if they can't take action in a country they share enormous borders with. It is totally unthinkable for Russia to publicly accept that, either directly or tantamount to. Their response to anything that makes it look like they might have to do this can only be one thing - escalation, i.e. the very opposite of withdrawal.

You are of course right that there is no other route to peace, as it is also unthinkable for Ukraine and the countries supporting to accept any other situation but complete Russian withdrawal. If there isn't a way for Russia to be convinced or compelled to withdraw then this also isn't a route to peace, and the conclusion is straightforward in it's bleakness: there is no route at all to peace. The unpalatableness of that endpoint is not, in itself, an argument against the logic that leads to it.

[The Awesome Berbaslug!!!]

Why would the Russians want to sabotage their own pipeline given that they have the ability to determine what flows through it anyway?

Why would the Americans blow up a pipeline when they can determine through diplomacy what goes through it? This isn't really a pipeline as such. Given the current and likely medium term relationship between Germany and Russia, and the German desperate pivot away from Russian energy, this is more like metal at the bottom of the sea.

If this js anything other than an industrial accident, then perhaps it is an illustration that Russia has the capacity to sabotage a gas pipeline without anyone noticing. Because there are other important undersea pipelines.

[Patrick Thistle]

So Russia was sending a message by smashing up its own stuff?

I mean, I can see it...

[Fussbudget]

I had also assumed that it was a show of strength from Russia, basically saying if we can do this then there's nothing stopping us from blowing up the Norway to Poland pipeline which coincidentally passes through the exact same area of Danish waters. Sure, the Nord Stream pipelines are partly theirs but it's not like they had any plans of using them anyway.

(Bear in mind that I know nothing about geopolitics though)

[Moonlight Shadow]

I had also assumed that it was a show of strength from Russia, basically saying if we can do this then there's nothing stopping us from blowing up the Norway to Poland pipeline which coincidentally passes through the exact same area of Danish waters. Sure, the Nord Stream pipelines are partly theirs but it's not like they had any plans of using them anyway.

(Bear in mind that I know nothing about geopolitics though)

It makes more sense than assuming some US black ops....

[Reality Checkpoint]

It did occur to me that as they seem to have blown up the same pipeline twice that they might have intended to target the Norway-Poland one as well

[Amor de Cosmos]

Anti-Putin domestic "terrorists?"

[ursus arctos]

Difficult to see how such people would have the necessary resources and expertise, not to mention doing so without being noticed.

[San Bernardhinault]

It is weird. I don't see a good motivation for anyone doing it. It doesn't even make any sense as a false-flag from either side. It's possible that the Ukrainians themselves would benefit but it's hard to see how they'd get access.

[DCI Harry Batt]

I don't know, Janik . I mean, I don't think there's a peaceful solution in Palestine short of a single secular state. But I don't despair. I guess I just generally don't despair. Not in the long run, anyway.

[Nesta]

What was it Keynes said about the long run? "In the long run we're all dead" or something. Course, with this war we might all be dead in the short run.

As you can see, I incline towards despair

[Patrick Thistle]

https://twitter.com/MoscowTimes/status/1575113910658678786?t=3o1O50zF-7HtKOvnYCU-JA&s=19

[Antepli Ejderha]

https://twitter.com/thediyora/status/1575103521870839813?t=myB5orBElLjm4TVgFu65IA&s=19

[ursus arctos]

https://twitter.com/malachybrowne/status/1575194867571261440?t=7h1bKs7AhDjj3ljAwHsmsw&s=19