War in Ukraine

[San Bernardhinault]

I find Georgia being accommodating to Russians a little surprising given the recent history in Abkhazia and South Ossetia. But it's also reassuring that they appear to be doing the right thing despite that.

[Satchmo Distel]

This must be one of very few wars, Holocaust excepted*, where the aggressor turns its own citizens into refugees fleeing its own actions.

*where external aggression was accompanied by internal genocide

[Discordant Resonance]

And the Spanish Civil War, of course. One could claim, at a pinch, that the Irish War of Independence and Civil War caused Southern Protestants to move across the Border, but that owed more to the institutions of the old Stormont regime consolidating, and thus offering attractive employment to that community, than an active sectarian pogrom.

[Discordant Resonance]

Putin was obviously too embarrassed to claim a 100% yes vote in the "referenda", so has settled for a "mere" 98%.

[ursus arctos]

This reminds me much more of VIetnam, in that those fleeing are overwhelmingly those subject to being called up, rather than families.

It may well be that the numbers involved are significantly greater, though that is hard to tell for sure given that the coverage of "draft dodging" in our time was massively different (as were the mechanics of the "mobilisation").

[The Awesome Berbaslug!!!]

And the Spanish Civil War, of course. One could claim, at a pinch, that the Irish War of Independence and Civil War caused Southern Protestants to move across the Border, but that owed more to the institutions of the old Stormont regime consolidating, and thus offering attractive employment to that community, than an active sectarian pogrom.

not that many southern protestants moved to northern Ireland. and even then, only ones in the northern half of the country. By and large they emigrated to England, like so many of their southern catholic neighbours. The cutlural gap between a cork protestant, and an antrim protestant was a large one 100 years ago.

[Amor de Cosmos]

This reminds me much more of VIetnam, in that those fleeing are overwhelmingly those subject to being called up, rather than families.

Me too. Though I suspect the repercussions for family members left behind are possibly greater for Russians today, than they were for Americans in the sixties.

[ursus arctos]

That wouldn't surprise me (though I don't think we are yet at the repercussions for families of "defectors" back in the day, though I the sense that those leaving are not counting on ever coming back is very similar.

[ad hoc]

So, the sabotage of the two Nordstream pipelines... I can;t see what's in it for Russia (not that Putin and his minions make logical decisions). They seem the most likely candidate, but even the most vehement antiRussian commentators I've seen are speculating that it could have been the US. Any well argued trusted sources out there that I can read?

[Patrick Thistle]

What would be the US motivation? That's getting closer to an act of direct confrontation.

Apparently Biden had threatened to do it though.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/michael...ense-minister/

[ad hoc]

The US's motivation is that it is firmly opposed to the existence of the Nordstream 2 pipe. Biden even said at one point that the US would like to "finish it" https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/bide...ry?id=82712888

[Patrick Thistle]

It seems strange timing to do it now.

[ad hoc]

(I don;t buy it either, but now it's been effectively decommisioned, Russia can no longer use it as leverage. Western Europe now has to work on the basis that it will get no more Russian gas this winter. The only people who really benefit from that finality are Ukraine, to be honest.)

(But like I said, I don't have a handle on this at all, and am avoiding the conspiracy theories (on both sides) as much as possible)

[Nefertiti2]

(I don;t buy it either, but now it's been effectively decommisioned, Russia can no longer use it as leverage. Western Europe now has to work on the basis that it will get no more Russian gas this winter. The only people who really benefit from that finality are Ukraine, to be honest.)

(But like I said, I don't have a handle on this at all, and am avoiding the conspiracy theories (on both sides) as much as possible)

There clearly was a conspiracy by someone to blow up the pipelines and not claim responsibility.

[Sean of the Shed]

Russian sabotage would be my best guess.

[Nefertiti2]

Why would the Russians want to sabotage their own pipeline given that they have the ability to determine what flows through it anyway?

[blameless]

The only people who really benefit from that finality are Ukraine, to be honest.

And a bunch of energy companies, particularly those operating in unregulated or poorly-regulated markets.

Tinfoil hat, me?

[Sean of the Shed]

Why would the Russians want to sabotage their own pipeline given that they have the ability to determine what flows through it anyway?

It's a pipeline that now may never be used.

A demonstration of power and capability.

Food for thought for the EU as they open a new Norway-Poland gas pipeline.

Destabilise the Gas market further.

Additional expense and effort for the EU for the repairs.

Because Putin.

[Nefertiti2]

"Because Putin"


'

https://twitter.com/pawelwargan/status/1574819073598406656?s=20&t=x7DYj7pF5gcNlGD-lO735Q

[Nefertiti2]

The US has consistently opposed Nordstream 2 because it allowed Russia to send gas to Germany without crossing Polish or Ukrainian territory. i

t seems unlikely that the Russians would blow it up when it offered an alternative should the pressures of a cold winter mean there would be increased demand for peace in Germany

[DCI Harry Batt]

Is there not already peace in Germany?

[Nefertiti2]

Poorly phrased:

"Demand for peace in Ukraine from disaffected Germans.

[Sean of the Shed]

"Because Putin"


'

https://twitter.com/pawelwargan/status/1574819073598406656?s=20&t=x7DYj7pF5gcNlGD-lO735Q

Ok, that's solved that then.

[DCI Harry Batt]

Sure, I was just doing my thing. It makes me smile.

I'm for peace in Ukraine, of course, though. The best route for that is Russian withdrawal.

[DCI Harry Batt]

Best? Only.