Originally posted by Nefertiti2
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*just FTR I'm not demanding anyone do that
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I could do a Nef here and demand you show me exactly where I called you a Putin sympathiser and huff about being misrepresented*. But then that might get me booted out of the OTF Brigade.
*just FTR I'm not demanding anyone do that -
I hate to come over all Snake and that, but maybe a self-denying ordinance for a few posters for a few hours might take some of the heat out here? I don't think anyone's likely to change their mind hugely or owt, but I also can't see much to be gained form a lot of "I only said this because you said that" back and forth.Comment
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TOn Ton's right. reminded me why I left. Probably best to leave again/
This post was what I took to insinuate I was sympathising with the Russians
Have to say this post- given who some of the Ukrainians were fighting with and what they did fair took my breath away...
For all the "peace is better than war" commentary you seem to have plenty of historical reasons on tap for why Russia can justify its aggression. (Never mind the Soviet Union made sure to punish any cossacks sent back there after the Second World War.)
But this is just the blame Ukraine game again.
If only Ukraine hadn't provoked Russia by talking to NATO
If only Ukraine had done more about its neo-Nazis
If only Ukraine had protected ethnic Russians when Russian-backed militias were active in the Donbass
If only Ukraine had overlooked war crimes to pursue a peace settlement
If only Ukraine hadn't listened to "hawks in the West"
See you allAdd to that, if only Ukrainians had picked the Soviet side in the Second World WarComment
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Just to be clear, I agree that a functional peace is clearly better than conflict. It’s just that I don’t see how you get to a functional peace that doesn’t include Russia being at least only at their pre-Feb lines in Donbas, considering the serious fears that many Ukrainians have over Holodomor2 and considering that it was their country that got invaded.
The trouble is, as you correctly note, it’s also hard to see a functional peace coming with Russia having made no gains as a belligerent (without regime change in Moscow).
It is a problematic paradox.
But if you need to choose which result you prefer of the two contradictory positions it’s surely the one where Russia hasn’t had a positive outcome from its decision to invade its neighbour.Comment
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A small note, but HC Motor Zaporizhzhia are playing in the 2. Handball-Bundesliga this season. They are Ukraine's strongest handball club and ar a fixture in the Champions League.Comment
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Changing the subject, a colleague has taken in a Ukrainian refugee family (mum, 2 kids). There are two aspects to this.
Firstly, trying to get the family the things they have been promised is incredibly hard. State financial assistance, healthcare registrations, school places etc. My colleague has spent hours each week trying to get this stuff sorted as the family speak barely any English.
Secondly, they have been inundated with donated clothing, shoes, toys for the kids. Brand new stuff. Barely worn stuff. My colleague says she feels overwhelmed, the Ukrainian mum even more so.
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I wouldn't be too sure of Putin's regime not collapsing. There's some saying out there, that all authoritarian governments look unassailable right up until the day they collapse.
Russia is a $1.9 trillion economy with a leadership nearly completely reliant upon gas exports for staying in power. The EU+UK are a $22 trillion economy that is only partially reliant upon gas imports. The cards are not stacked in Putin's favour here. The EU has a harmonised energy market that can redistribute the pain, and the economies are rich enough in order for the governments to subsidise the regular punter. France has already nationalised EdF. Furthermore, the Fed will step in and buy euros if the exchange rate gets out of hand. I suspect it is already happening. Every time the euro dips below 1 buck, it magically rebounds.
Germany has been successfully sourcing gas from everywhere they can and have been stockpiling it in storage faster than expected. And this winter everyone in Germany will be saving energy. They love a bit of effizienz, and now they have an excuse. Putin is spooked, and has now turned off NordStream. But ultimately, if Russia sells no gas to Europe this winter, they will be shooting themselves in the foot. And you can't just build a pipeline to China or India overnight, that would take years.
In fact, the main thing I have learned from this energy crisis is how unreliable nuclear plants are.Comment
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Agreed. Although I’m no fan of Nef’s ad hominem attacks using personal info about me shared elsewhere on OTF (I’ve no idea what the New England barb was about but it was an example) and often disagree on substance, he still adds a lot of value and a different voice.Comment
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There is a TED talk style event that's run in Cardiff for several years. It's relaunching and I've just had an email about it.
The middle topic caught my eye.Ignite Cardiff #42 tickets are live now!
We have some fantastic speakers to take the stage on 27th November at the Glee Club in Cardiff Bay, covering topics including ...
"The Psychology of Kissing", "Roots of the Ukraine conflict from a Russian perspective" and "How I Learned To Stop Worrying And Love The Powerbomb"Comment
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Piece about life in Moscow. Just in case you imagined that there might be some kind of coup any time soon https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/06/w...core-ios-shareComment
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Not being much of a history buff, I've only just read this Wikipedia page the book "The Foundations of Geopolitics" by Aleksandr Dugin on https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foun...of_Geopolitics
My husband was debating it yesterday with his dad. Quite eye-opening stuff.
Has anyone here read the actual book?Comment
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The content section is particularly interesting:
In Europe:
Germany should be offered the de facto political dominance over most Protestant and Catholic states located within Central and Eastern Europe. Kaliningrad Oblast could be given back to Germany. The book uses the term "Moscow–Berlin axis".[9]
France should be encouraged to form a bloc with Germany, as they both have a "firm anti-Atlanticist tradition".[9]
The United Kingdom, merely described as an "extraterritorial floating base of the U.S.", should be cut off from Europe.[9]
Finland should be absorbed into Russia. Southern Finland will be combined with the Republic of Karelia and northern Finland will be "donated to Murmansk Oblast".[9]
Estonia should be given to Germany's sphere of influence.[9]
Latvia and Lithuania should be given a "special status" in the Eurasian–Russian sphere, although he later writes that they should be integrated into Russia.[9]
Belarus and Moldova are to become part of Russia.[9]
Poland should be granted a "special status" in the Eurasian sphere.[9]
Romania, North Macedonia, Serbia, "Serbian Bosnia" and Greece – "Orthodox collectivist East" – will unite with "Moscow the Third Rome" and reject the "rational-individualistic West".[9]
Ukraine should be annexed by Russia because "Ukraine as a state has no geopolitical meaning, no particular cultural import or universal significance, no geographic uniqueness, no ethnic exclusiveness, its certain territorial ambitions represents an enormous danger for all of Eurasia and, without resolving the Ukrainian problem, it is in general senseless to speak about continental politics". Ukraine should not be allowed to remain independent, unless it is cordon sanitaire, which would be inadmissible.[9]
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In the Middle East and Central Asia:
The book stresses the "continental Russian–Islamic alliance" which lies "at the foundation of anti-Atlanticist strategy". The alliance is based on the "traditional character of Russian and Islamic civilization".
Iran is a key ally. The book uses the term "Moscow–Tehran axis".[9]
Armenia has a special role: It will serve as a "strategic base," and it is necessary to create "the [subsidiary] axis Moscow-Yerevan-Teheran". Armenians "are an Aryan people ... [like] the Iranians and the Kurds".[9]
Azerbaijan could be "split up" or given to Iran.[9]
Georgia should be dismembered. Abkhazia and "United Ossetia" (which includes Georgia's South Ossetia and the Republic of North Ossetia) will be incorporated into Russia. Georgia's independent policies are unacceptable.[9]
Russia needs to create "geopolitical shocks" within Turkey. These can be achieved by employing Kurds, Armenians and other minorities.[9]
The book regards the Caucasus as a Russian territory, including "the eastern and northern shores of the Caspian (the territories of Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan)" and Central Asia (mentioning Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan).[9]
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In East and Southeast Asia:
China, which represents a danger to Russia, "must, to the maximum degree possible, be dismantled". Dugin suggests that Russia start by taking Tibet–Xinjiang–Inner Mongolia–Manchuria as a security belt.[1] Russia should offer China help "in a southern direction – Indochina (except Vietnam), the Philippines, Indonesia, Australia" as geopolitical compensation.[9]
Russia should manipulate Japanese politics by offering the Kuril Islands to Japan and provoking anti-Americanism.[9]
Mongolia should be absorbed into Eurasia-Russia.[9]
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In the United States:
Russia should use its special services within the borders of the United States to fuel instability and separatism, for instance, provoke "Afro-American racists". Russia should "introduce geopolitical disorder into internal American activity, encouraging all kinds of separatism and ethnic, social and racial conflicts, actively supporting all dissident movements – extremist, racist, and sectarian groups, thus destabilizing internal political processes in the U.S. It would also make sense simultaneously to support isolationist tendencies in American politics".[9]
The Eurasian Project could be expanded to South and Central America.[9]
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This was all published in 1997. The author, Alexandr Dugin, is the close ally of Putin whose daughter was just blown up: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aleksandr_DuginComment
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These are rather more balanced pieces on the Dugin/Putin non-relationship than a lot of the "Putin's Brain" stuff that has been around for years.
https://www.cnn.com/2022/08/23/opini...and/index.html
https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...bombing-targetComment
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Feel like these sorts of pieces just observing like people enjoying their lives is unlikely to pick up on the prospect of unrest especially given the government has criminalised protest.Originally posted by ad hoc View Post
Like the 2011 UK uprising didn't come from nowhere, but it did take most people by surprise. You could have written a very similar piece about London in early August that year. Or Tunisia in the middle of December 2011.
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Further compounded by the fact that Moscow is even less representative of the country at large then London, Washington or Paris.
Of course, coups are rarely inspired by broad popular movements.Comment
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A disturbing story from some pretty damn resilient Russian women, and an example of how all the technology we now have at our fingertips can sometimes be put to good use: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-62799246Comment
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With Russia having transferred troops to defend Kherson, it appears Ukraine has taken advantage by capturing territory east of Kharkiv.Comment
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https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1568119846075760641
Some bias in this source of course, but if it is even half true it's an absolute disaster.
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Ukrainians pushing into Kupiansk and Izyum, which are about 100 km east of Kharkiv. Remember, at one point the Russians were at the suburbs of Kharkiv.Comment
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