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    So the bigger the number, the less likely the bookies think something is to happen?

    And to convert to odds that I get immediately, 4.52 is essentially 4.52/1?

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      Two points

      1).there are no bookies on Betfair


      2) the betting markets have been particularly awful at this election

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        Originally posted by TonTon View Post
        So the bigger the number, the less likely the bookies think something is to happen?

        And to convert to odds that I get immediately, 4.52 is essentially 4.52/1?
        Subtract 1 first, so it'd be 3.52/1, as the decimal odds include the stake, but that's essentially it.

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          Originally posted by ursus arctos View Post
          Two points

          1).there are no bookies on Betfair


          2) the betting markets have been particularly awful at this election
          They're also dodgy on the 2024 Presidential election, although that does provide opportunities to clean up (I think Biden is around 13/2* which would tempt me if I hadn't given up gambling when I met my spouse).

          *Based on reading that he was being given a 15% chance compared to 18% Trump and 24% DeSantis. These make no sense if Biden is definitely running and likely to have no realistic opposition except his health. GOP is also around 52-48 to supply the winner which again makes no sense after this week.

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            They are currently just stealing money from punters with two years to go

            Click on any candidate for a list of all available odds

            https://www.oddschecker.com/politics...on-2024/winner

            These markets are not at all liquid and there are anecdotal rumblings that they are being manipulated to make certain races/candidates look more competitive than they are.

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              Pompeo's on there twice (50/1 and 80/1). Some might be on there as publicity (Michelle Obama, the Rock) such as if they've got a book out for Xmas.

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                If I were a bookie, I would gleefully take bets on names like that.

                It is free money plus two years of float.

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                  The "real" entry for Pompeo is the 80 to 1.

                  The range at books is from 40-80. One exchange has him at 27.

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                    The one guy in America who think the Democrats can hold the House:

                    https://twitter.com/cbouzy/status/1591838120479264768

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                      Originally posted by TonTon View Post
                      So the bigger the number, the less likely the bookies think something is to happen?

                      And to convert to odds that I get immediately, 4.52 is essentially 4.52/1?
                      3.52/1

                      Because decimal odds include your stake in the "the money you get back from the bookies".

                      But in fractional odds it would actually be the so much easier 88/25.

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                        Originally posted by ursus arctos View Post
                        Two points

                        1).there are no bookies on Betfair


                        2) the betting markets have been particularly awful at this election
                        1. This ​​is why I prefer Betfair.

                        2. Definitely

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                          Originally posted by Discordant Resonance View Post
                          The one guy in America who think the Democrats can hold the House:

                          https://twitter.com/cbouzy/status/1591838120479264768

                          he could be right if CA breaks Dem. And he got the Senate right when wanks like Silver were way off. I'm guessing R 219 personally.
                          Last edited by Lang Spoon; 13-11-2022, 17:50.

                          Comment


                            Originally posted by Lang Spoon View Post

                            ...when wanks like Silver were way off.
                            Nate Silver may be wank, but it's hard to describe him as "way off" in the Senate predictions. He said it was a toss-up, and 4000 people changing their votes in Nevada might be the only difference between a Democratic and Republican Senate. In a country with a couple of hundred million voters, that seems fair to call "toss-up".

                            Also, of course, he's always clear that his models are probabilistic and give you the likelihood of each part of the range happening. He actually doesn't predict the number of seats.

                            Some idiots might see a "most likely outcome of 227 Republican seats in the house" as a prediction of "I think there will be 227 Republicans". But that's a problem of people interpreting what they're being told, not a problem in the actual information.

                            Comment


                              Originally posted by TonTon View Post
                              They don't really "have" the senate, do they? I mean, it could be even worse, obvs. But can they do much? I mean, even if they wanted to.
                              I'm trying to work out what your argument here is.

                              Is it that Manchin and Sinema (and Tester and more) aren't "really Democrats"? There might be some who'd make that argument, but it would be odd coming from you who I thought already assumed that the whole Democratic party are a bunch of useless centrists like Manchin and Sinema.

                              Is it that 50/50 is a tie? If so , that's sort of right but the fact that they have the Presidency means they control it and can bring nominations to the floor. And for all Sinema and Manchin's flaws, they appear to have been voting for everyone's nominations every time. And that's just about the only useful stuff the Senate can do for the next two years (unless somehow the Democrats really can get to 218).

                              If it's that they don't have the House, that's true and means that any legislation is dead before it starts, but that isn't about control of the Senate.

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                                Manchin and Sinema are centrists?

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                                  Well, they're not progressive left-wingers. Nor are almost any other Democrat senators.

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                                    I'd have them quite some way over to the right, myself. Fair points, though, SB, I need to use more words.

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                                      Originally posted by San Bernardhinault View Post
                                      Well, they're not progressive left-wingers. Nor are almost any other Democrat senators.
                                      Democratic, please.

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                                        https://twitter.com/taniel/status/1591893144567959553?s=61&t=y_J2PHoEd-e2YpOvNeDqJw

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                                          Attentions USIans

                                          Helen Lewis, nauseous transpohobe and centrist par excellence has come to explain your elections to you

                                          https://twitter.com/Hammbear2024/status/1591874301787275264?s=20&t=FFw7ZU0tdg20DpYx5GWZSw

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                                            How totally on brand for Lewis

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                                              https://twitter.com/nate_cohn/status/1591981271114485761?s=61&t=pDfYnOGCkUKYkTVTuoGPlQ

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                                                That's how I read today's numbers, too. Lake is in trouble - given that 40k of the remaining 160k votes are in Pima county - but not dead in the water. I'd probably put this at 80/20 Hobbs right now, but no stronger.

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                                                  Also, the most recent votes reported in Arizona and California make those very hopey tweets about possible control of the House seem incredibly unlikely now. Most likely 222-4/211-213.

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                                                    So they only project stuff after it has already happened.

                                                    Like a weather forecast telling you the current weather.

                                                    Handy.

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