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The Laboratories of Democracy: US state and local politics

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    We're getting to see a lot of Kari Lake on our TV screens.

    In a crowded field she does appear to be irredeemably obnoxious.

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      She's rather middle of the pack by that measure among the field.

      Though she is much more polished and comfortable in front of camera, as one would expect from a long time television presenter.

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        Originally posted by ursus arctos View Post
        She's rather middle of the pack by that measure among the field.

        Though she is much more polished and comfortable in front of camera, as one would expect from a long time television presenter.

        She's just so grossly unpleasant - patently insincere, rude and ignorant amongst other things. The fact that she's a polished performer sort of makes it worse somehow!

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          https://twitter.com/mjs_DC/status/1588586392523010049?t=IfZd5XhR7v1cDaqx6Ru-JA&s=19

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            https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1589772135815577600?s=61&t=GRPNdvNLgGy5PtR2hu-FSQ

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              His mother knew him well and wouldn't let him within a mile of anything to do with the cosmetics business.

              A truly odious person who I have had the displeasure of meeting.

              https://twitter.com/janemayernyer/status/1589239141308448770?s=61&t=lt4rPgMAtAOzYV-VCNRI9A

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                So, the chatter was a tease

                https://twitter.com/jdawsey1/status/1589816837180915713?s=61&t=lt4rPgMAtAOzYV-VCNRI9A

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                  They had said he was going to wait until after the midterms. There are enough Republican Party folk still able to get his ear to not destroy their news cycle.

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                    I think head to head polling gives DeSantis a better chance than Trump of beating Biden, and I would imagine that some donors are strategizing to try to make that happen.

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                      Here comes a day/week/month of heartburn.

                      Go Blue Crew.

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                        I'm sure that there are, but there is very little they can do to stop him given his existing warchest and apparently limitless ability to shakedown the base.

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                          Originally posted by jason voorhees View Post
                          Here comes a day/week/month of heartburn.

                          Go Blue Crew.
                          Yes. My expectations are low - both polling and history tell us that this is the reasonable, mature position. But, sadly, the range of possible outcomes is just wide enough that - like the same idiot who so often stayed watching Oxford when they were 4-1 down in the 85th minute - I haven’t quite given up hope, and therefore the next 12/24/48/120 hours are going to be miserable.

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                            I think realistically in terms of expectation (if not governance), a good result would be a 50:50 Senate and Dems “only” being 225-210 down in the House, and perhaps someone like Mark Finchem losing his Sec of State race in Arizona.

                            A realistic neutral expectation is probably a 51:49 Rep Senate (you’d think Georgia and Nevada both fall and the Democrats get lucky in one of Arizona and Pennsylvania), and a 230-205 House.

                            My brain says it’s going to be a really bad day, though, where lots of races are lost in low single digits. All four of those Senate races, along with Wisconsin, North Carolina and Ohio. Also weird ones where Democrats shouldn’t be competitive will get close but not quite close enough like Oklahoma and Kansas governors, and all the Arizona races, the Oregon governor, and so on and so on. It’ll be hammer blow after hammer blow where the results are in the balance for a while and then fail. I’m going to have to work so hard not to get optimistic about outcomes and then ultimately disappointed.

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                              (I write all this mostly just to tell myself that I’m being an idiot thinking that perhaps this will be the year that has the 95% percentile error band all go in the direction that I want)

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                                I'm very hopeful with Michael Moore and Simon Rosenberg.

                                I want these fuckers to get the Gallagher-sledgehammer-watermelon treatment that they've deserved for decades. I pray the hidden Roevember voters will deliver that today.

                                But yes, for decades I've been disappointed and my eyes are wide open. But you have to prepare for the best, not only the worst.

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                                  https://twitter.com/washingtonpost/status/1590010026718019592?s=61&t=BZXT_pewoJSBtZygkSw-Bg

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                                    https://twitter.com/lib_crusher/status/1588248990557954049?s=61&t=OmeUF8HoAK08-Z8cvQaqnw

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                                      Results are coming in. Maggie Hassan is leading Dan Bolduc by 5 votes to 0, all from Dixville in Coos County, the northernmost part of New Hampshire. You should not extrapolate from this data yet.

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                                        Dixville Notch has been voting at 12:01 in the morning so as to be "First in the Nation" for most/all of my lifetime.

                                        Biden got all five votes there in 2020.

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                                          Turnout here was higher than I expected, but nothing untoward. Unlike the Democratic Primary, the number of voters at least matched that of poll workers.

                                          At 4 pm, I was third in the queue for our Electoral District.

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                                            Wapo headline: "Beto O’Rourke has spent 1,175 of the last 2,048 days running for office"

                                            I laughed.

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                                              A handful of votes (just a few thousand from mostly rural counties) are now reporting in Kentucky. Rand Paul is obviously going to win re-election, but he's massively overperforming the anti-abortion amendment, which is interesting. He's leading by 55% in these very right-wing counties. The abortion amendment is "only" leading by 30%, but that difference might be enough. Worth keeping an eye on that one, which might be more important for actual peoples' lives than many of the more high-profile votes today.

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                                                Does Rand Paul have a kid who might run for office in the future? Because that family seems to get even more unhinged with every generation.

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                                                  Oh they look the part.

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                                                    This fucking country...

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