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    #51
    Originally posted by Jimski View Post
    I've also read that economic migrants themselves tend statistically to be among the richer or more upwardly mobile members of the population within their original countries.
    Hmm, well, they're more upwardly mobile almost by definition. They are economic migrants because they can earn more money elsewhere, ergo they're (in a sense) upwardly mobile. I think in Romania the greater number of the people who are working elsewhere in Europe are doing so as agricultural labourers, in elderly care, in construction or perhaps in low paid hospitality work, so they're not "among the richer". (Obviously some relatively well off middle class Romanians emigrate too, but the majority are from poverty).

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      #52
      Apparently middle income people (within a country) tend to migrate the most, according to this paper anyway. A reason given is "At the micro level, one key reason more of the poor do not migrate is that migration is costly and they face liquidity constraints which make it hard to overcome these costs. Several studies have documented just how costly migration is."

      Never did I think I'd spend a day off searching the web for evidence in support of a half-remembered "fact" (or not) that I previously read....

      https://www.cairn.info/revue-d-econo...-3-page-13.htm

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        #53
        If anyone is interested, there is a live webcast on Thursday on the subject of vaccination passports - for international travel in Africa.



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          #54
          "Vaccine passports" as standalones aren't a great idea. There are some people who can't get vaccinated and shouldn't be excluded. OTOH, I feel it's reasonable for people to know whether others are a risk in social spaces, Not beyond imagination to find a way to supporting include people who would but can't have the vaccination. A covid status cert could show vaccinated/ previously infected / recent test/ can't be vaccinated because of pregnancy or allergy/ not eligible or low risk because of age, etc.* I'd support that quite strongly. Nothing will ever eliminate risk - vaccines don't do that - but it could help manage it and that would allow everyone more freedom of movement.

          Re: International travel, if I safely can, I'm going to visit my daughter + family and new grandson in NZ this autumn. Not seen her in 3 years. Not seen him ever. And as I'm travelling, I'm breaking my journey for a trek in Nepal. I have a friend there who's a trekking guide and has been unemployed for a year. He still has no bookings for the 2021 pre-monsoon season, so he'll stay jobless until October at least - and that won't be affected by travel options for 20/30-somethings. (Even if they go there rather than the Med, 20/30-somethings never hire guides. They sometimes hire one porter between 4.) If that makes me an entitled dip, I'll have to try to live with it.

          I'm unconvinced by the argument we shouldn't do X until everyone can. Presumably no-one living by the sea is swimming until we all can? No-one near by a mountain is going on it until we're all allowed? Of course the government will fuck it up and abuse the system, but they've done that with everything else connected with this. The huge global inequalities in access to vaccine are, like all health inequalities, a function of global capitalism and deplorable, but not affected by whether there's a record of having had it.

          *It could also record if people have been offered the vaccination but refused because they think Bill Gates and George Soros want to use it to control their minds. In that event, I'd be all for compulsory hazmat suits (at traveller's expense) and 10 day quarantines before departure and on arrival (ditto) at both ends of the journey.

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            #55
            Fyi - I have edited the original post, just realised there was an important "don't" missing between Goanbu and have. As you were.

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              #56
              If you can't have the vaccine, for whatever reason - e.g. pregnant woman - then that should be sufficient to grant you entry, perhaps there could be another category?

              Could it perhaps be like smoking? When there were smoking and non-smoking areas? When I smoked I had no problem at all being asked to sit over in "that" section of the pub/restaurant/theatre/cinema/aeroplane etc. rather than "this" one where no-one was smoking

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                #57
                I think if you can't have the vaccine, you should get your vaccine passport. You are the reason that we need herd immunity and why we need to prevent those who can get vaccinated but don't from ruining things for everyone else. The vaccine I had shoved in my arm yesterday is perhaps 90% effective, perhaps 80%, perhaps 70%, depending on variants - we don't really know in real world terms yet. It's very good. But it's not perfect.

                When I go to a bar or on a train in the future, I don't want that 10, 20, 30% ineffectiveness to be put to the test by people who could have been vaccinated but chose not to or just didn't get around to it, and I don't want my friends who're unable to get vaccinated (and are therefore already probably in a higher risk category) to have to restrict their lives because of these people.

                Basically, I don't want peoples' lives put at risk or to remain incredibly limited because of the lack-of-action of refuseniks.

                My airport experience last week just reinforced this - I really don't want to be in a crowded airport with all these people if they are so apathetic about others' wellbeing. And I was in the airport for an hour. I really don't think the staff in all these places should have to be put at risk because someone thought that covid was a hoax all along.

                Yes, any vaccine passport scheme will probably be corrupt. And yes, it might be easily forged. And yes, it will inevitably benefit well off countries to start with. I don't think any of these are sufficient reasons to not have it, provided that it safeguards those who are medically unable to get vaccinated.

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                  #58
                  The Covid pass includes other criteria than being vaccinated, natural immunity due to Covid infection in last 6 months and negative tests so it's false to assume that no vaccine means no fun. It also not going to be needed for shopping, public transports and more than likely pubs/restaurants (unless a particular place makes it a policy).

                  In fact, aside from attending mass events and travel, that pass won't be needed for much it seems. If there is going to be all kind of exceptions so no one feels left out, then why bother?

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                    #59
                    Including negative tests would not make me feel comfortable. Negative tests are not particularly reliable and definitely not current - I believe you can be infected for days before you test positive.

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                      #60
                      Originally posted by San Bernardhinault View Post
                      Including negative tests would not make me feel comfortable. Negative tests are not particularly reliable and definitely not current - I believe you can be infected for days before you test positive.
                      Correct. There is no way a scheme can be implemented without leaving a number of people out.

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                        #61
                        I've actually been part of the ONS/Oxford University Covid-19 survey for some months now. They have taken it a step further and today as well as doing a PCR test, I was asked to provide a sample of blood - ONS/OU want to know what the antibody story is. It's anonymised, so they didn't know I had had my first vaccination. Gotta say even though it was literally a finger prick, the way the way the blood gushed out I thought I had hit an artery!

                        Originally posted by San Bernardhinault View Post
                        I think if you can't have the vaccine, you should get your vaccine passport. You are the reason that we need herd immunity and why we need to prevent those who can get vaccinated but don't from ruining things for everyone else. The vaccine I had shoved in my arm yesterday is perhaps 90% effective, perhaps 80%, perhaps 70%, depending on variants - we don't really know in real world terms yet. It's very good. But it's not perfect.

                        When I go to a bar or on a train in the future, I don't want that 10, 20, 30% ineffectiveness to be put to the test by people who could have been vaccinated but chose not to or just didn't get around to it, and I don't want my friends who're unable to get vaccinated (and are therefore already probably in a higher risk category) to have to restrict their lives because of these people.

                        Basically, I don't want peoples' lives put at risk or to remain incredibly limited because of the lack-of-action of refuseniks.

                        My airport experience last week just reinforced this - I really don't want to be in a crowded airport with all these people if they are so apathetic about others' wellbeing. And I was in the airport for an hour. I really don't think the staff in all these places should have to be put at risk because someone thought that covid was a hoax all along.

                        Yes, any vaccine passport scheme will probably be corrupt. And yes, it might be easily forged. And yes, it will inevitably benefit well off countries to start with. I don't think any of these are sufficient reasons to not have it, provided that it safeguards those who are medically unable to get vaccinated.
                        It's this isn't it? As I said in my original post - not harming others. We don't know the efficacy of the vaccines, but throughout the last 12 months or so, my approach has been no one will get the virus because of me.

                        Comment


                          #62
                          Originally posted by Fussbudget View Post
                          In an ideal world, I'd be fine with them. As implemented by this government though? Absolutely no chance that there won't be any discrimination or mission creep in their application, or corruption in the awarding of the contract (most likely all three)
                          Nailed it, we have seen how the governments (labour and conservatives) use Laws for reasons they were not drafted in the first place. And the people who tend to get the worst of it are the non-white people (Windrush, Proof of eligibility for services, revoking of UK citizenship for non-violent and minor offences).

                          Ad Hoc, there has and is nothing stopping you from going to visit your mother. Romania is not on the red list so you will not be forced to stay in a hotel unless you plan to stop off in South Africa or Brazil on your way here. We have covered this before so I am not sure why you are raising it again here?
                          And all this banning of travel is nonsense and sounds like some bitter class hatred nonsense. I am 100% against this and will be used to bully and strongarm people into taking vaccines they do not need nor do not want. In addition it will be used as another excuse to exclude undesirables whilst rules will be waived for everyone else.

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                            #63
                            So, it'll be corrupt, easily forged, will benefit the better-off, and subject to mission creep, but its still somehow worth it? I just don't get it. Even the 'easily-forged' bit, on its own, entirely invalidates the aim of keeping vulnerable people safe, not least because they'll be encouraged to behave 'normally' in scenarios where they will be in danger.

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                              #64
                              Originally posted by Tactical Genius View Post

                              Ad Hoc, there has and is nothing stopping you from going to visit your mother. Romania is not on the red list so you will not be forced to stay in a hotel unless you plan to stop off in South Africa or Brazil on your way here. We have covered this before so I am not sure why you are raising it again here?
                              i was raising it in response to the claim that everybody flying is doing so to go to the Maldives or whatever. But, yes, in the absence of any clear guidelines from the UK government website, I have taken your advice to be truth and will be going later this month, inshallah. If I am questioned at passport control I have printed out that previous thread and will present it with the words "Look, this bloke Tactical genius, who I know off the internet, assures me that this is entirely within the rules"

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                                #65
                                Originally posted by ad hoc View Post
                                i was raising it in response to the claim that everybody flying is doing so to go to the Maldives or whatever. But, yes, in the absence of any clear guidelines from the UK government website, I have taken your advice to be truth and will be going later this month, inshallah. If I am questioned at passport control I have printed out that previous thread and will present it with the words "Look, this bloke Tactical genius, who I know off the internet, assures me that this is entirely within the rules"
                                Hahahaha.

                                But seriously, I don't think travelling to see your 80 year old mother who lives alone counts as leisure travel. Plus you are British so you will not face any restrictions "coming home", that's for the foriegners.
                                The UK government website is pretty clear regarding the guidelines as to restrictions for returning British nationals, self-isolation at home or Isolation in Hotels, red zone countries.
                                https://www.gov.uk/uk-border-control

                                And before you arrive in the UK you fill out this form which will advise you as to your responsibilities, it is wizard-based so you can go through it now so you know where you stand. I also believe you can pre book your two manadatory Covid tests.
                                https://www.gov.uk/provide-journey-c...fore-travel-uk

                                Two minute google and all available on the UK government website. Now this can change as one would expect with this disease, but the government are pretty clear. Sadly, in practice these are nowhere near as strict as their official documentation.



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                                  #66
                                  I'm struck by the notion that because someone's appointment card would be easy to fake, it's apparently inevitable that all and any future iterations of a different document issued for an entirely different purpose will also be easily fakeable. Interested to see the working on that one.

                                  I don't trust Johnson and cronies any more than anyone else, but there will be public eyes on this perhaps more so than most of their grifting because their own party is so split on the issue, so I'm not convinced by the 'inevitable' corruption. Nor by the idea that there's "no way' it can be done without leaving people out. Of course it can. That's not to say it will be, but it can be.

                                  Mainly, I suppose, I'm wondering what people are waiting for? 100% vaccine delivery? 100% vaccine efficiency? Global herd immunity? That's a heck of a long game. The alternatives to some kind of certification of status are huge quarantine buffers (only available to the wealthy) or maintaining the ban international travel except for work (and thus opening the "Stanley Johnson Loophole" - again only available to wealthy second-home owners). What have I missed?

                                  The civil liberties issues are addressing manifestations of authoritarianism, not the essentials. I'm pretty sure the ruling classes are quite happy with the status quo - free movement restricted to the wealthy and powerful.

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                                    #67
                                    Only slightly tangentially, I reckon there will be some who see the AZ vax issue today as scary enough to stop them going to get their second shot. I'm not sure how that would play out re the passports - badly, possibly - but I think that domestic passports might be dying a death as an idea at the moment. There appear to be too many contradictions, complications, exceptions and requirements for them to gain a wide acceptance, in such a short space of time.

                                    As to what I'm waiting for, vaccination helping us get to a decent level of herd immunity, country by country.

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                                      #68
                                      Have a read of how innocuous laws are being abused.
                                      https://www.freemovement.org.uk/brit...p-deprivation/

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                                        #69
                                        I don't think anyone expects a vaccine passport to not be abused. A lack-of-vaccine-passport can be, and also will be, abused by those in power. As ChrisJ notes, there not being a vaccine passport allows different rules to come in to place - requiring time or money or particular conditions like having the right job or a second home. If everything is going to be abused - and it is - why not have something that makes everyone a bit safer?

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                                          #70
                                          Two viewpoints on passports from Sage subcommittee members. Tbh even the one that is supposedly pro the passports brings in so many caveats (most of which in practice I suspect the government would ignore) that it tends to turn me against them rather than in favour of them.

                                          https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...nment-damaging

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                                            #71
                                            If the “covid passport” includes negative PCR tests then I think they’re a pointless idea that will basically do nothing of value.

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                                              #72
                                              Originally posted by San Bernardhinault View Post
                                              If the “covid passport” includes negative PCR tests then I think they’re a pointless idea that will basically do nothing of value.
                                              I am shocked, shocked!, that the governments of the world come up with a pointless idea that will basically do nothing of value.

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