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Cymru, comme ca - 2021 Senedd election

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    Cymru, comme ca - 2021 Senedd election

    After the perfunctory OP, I'll hastily give way to our Welsh colleagues, but the polling so far does allow for some initial thoughts:

    1. Labour haven't polled high enough for a seat majority since 2017, so a coalition may be necessary if that trend continues.
    2. Will the current Welsh Tory highs continue if the Boris bubble bursts, and how will they be impacted by either Abolish or Reform UK?
    3. Plaid may marginally improve on 2016, but given the momentum behind Yes Cymru, will surely be disappointed to be virtually stagnating.
    4. With Reform making little UK-wide impression, Abolish seem best placed to capture the former UKIP seats, but will need to convince current Tory voters.
    5. As in Scotland, the Lib Dems appear to be treading water, and Neil McEvoy's Propel party literally doesn't appear to be registering with voters.

    #2
    What is Propel?

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      #3
      Like Salmond, McEvoy left/was expelled from Plaid Cymru - he then set up a party called the Welsh National Party, but was legally ordered to change it because it was considered to potentially confuse voters, so then opted for the rather odd choice of Propel.

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        #4
        Cheers DR.

        This claim is hard to judge as no figures are involved but it does seem like the Tories are taking back support from the Brexit party.

        https://twitter.com/NationCymru/status/1375827974826692609?s=19

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          #5
          I'll come back to this and write some thoughts soon.

          Comment


            #6
            Originally posted by Diable Rouge View Post
            Like Salmond, McEvoy left/was expelled from Plaid Cymru - he then set up a party called the Welsh National Party, but was legally ordered to change it because it was considered to potentially confuse voters, so then opted for the rather odd choice of Propel.
            Thanks. Any idea what he is propelling, and to where?

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              #7
              Localism mostly, it would appear.

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                #8
                McEvoy was previously a councillor in Cardiff where his aggressive self.promotion got wearing. His Wikipedia page makes interesting reading. When he got the boot from Plaid the average integrity level of Plaid members jumped a notch.

                https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neil_McEvoy

                I hadn't twigged he had started Propel. I thought he was hooking into Gwlad, the right wing separatist group. I try to avoid reading about him tbh.

                Comment


                  #9
                  Originally posted by TonTon View Post

                  Thanks. Any idea what he is propelling, and to where?
                  himself, not sure where but ideally out of a cannon into the sun.

                  Comment


                    #10
                    I have a feeling there is going to be a lot of overlap between this thread and the independence thread

                    https://twitter.com/NationCymru/status/1376103499327545344?s=19

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                      #11
                      I see the current Senedd members covering both South and North Pembrokeshire are Tories (as are the Westminster MPs). Eugh.

                      The County Council is more interesting: mostly “Independents” - whom I usually assume are mostly shy Tories, but here about half are aligned with Lab/Plaid/Libs to run the administration, with the rest siding with Tories and other twats in opposition. A strange set up that I’ll have to investigate further.

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                        #12
                        slackster Pembrokeshire has been "little England beyond Wales" for centuries. It's currently Tory because of, um, all the retired people who move there.

                        Meanwhile, Labour make a boob with monolingual leaflets in Cardiff. McEvoy gets quoted in the report because he will comment on anything.

                        https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-56551696

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                          #13
                          Yeah, fair point, PT.

                          In my MiL’s village just outside Tenby I’d say it’s about 1/3rd “locals, 1/3rd incoming oldies, and 1/3rd holiday homes/lets. She’s been down here 50 years, mind, although originally from the Rhondda.

                          Comment


                            #14
                            You may feel you've inadvertently joined a contraversial demographic tbh. The pressure on health services in the region skews heavily geriatric. Paediatric and maternity services are underfunded as a result. Housing is an issue because of the second homes / holiday homes / retirees. Plus there's the renaming issue and loss of traditional Welsh names.

                            Comment


                              #15
                              Tories scrapping again.

                              Deselected Conservative Nick Ramsay has left the party, saying he will stand as an independent in May's Welsh Parliament election.

                              Mr Ramsay, who represented the Monmouth constituency for 14 years, said he was unhappy with the party's direction.
                              https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-wales-56561666

                              There was a sizeable faction in the local party who wanted Ramsay to stay on as candidate. Not sure if this will actually prevent the official Tory candidate winning.

                              Comment


                                #16
                                This is the first Senedd election where the voting age has been lowered to 16.

                                Here's an article about young people's engagement with politics. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-56502833

                                Comment


                                  #17
                                  The way this election is going to be reported across the border will be interesting to see. Tories getting their spin in the Times today.


                                  https://twitter.com/thetimes/status/1376453466919419910?s=19

                                  Comment


                                    #18
                                    Given they're the only party who can currently oust Labour, bar a huge Plaid surge, that would be distinctly odd.

                                    Comment


                                      #19
                                      Had our first election leaflet today. Bright red. But not Labour. A Plaid Cymru leaflet. Clever move I thought given how it feels many people vote on a colour basis.

                                      Comment


                                        #20
                                        Bit of a round up here. Tories going for the Covidiot vote and the BBC have agreed to platform the Abolish the Assembly party.

                                        https://twitter.com/nationalwales/status/1376944506004721666?s=19

                                        Comment


                                          #21
                                          This is the sort of toxic misogyny that passes for politics with the Abolish lot. (That's Leanne Wood from Plaid Cymru in the picture)

                                          Comment


                                            #22
                                            Who's Lee Canning?

                                            Comment


                                              #23
                                              Originally posted by Antepli Ejderha View Post
                                              Who's Lee Canning?
                                              Here's his Twitter bio. Judging by his pinned tweet he's from Wrexham.

                                              Comment


                                                #24
                                                For further reference @rwtaylors he's replying to is Richard Taylor who is "Regional Coordinator South Wales East" for Abolish the Assembly. I think he's the same Richard Taylor who was once the revivalist leader of a happyclappy church in Cwmbran who left following sexytimes shenanigans and then later was investigated after claims he was exploiting drug addicts he was "helping through rehab" and using as a very cheap / free labour force.

                                                Comment


                                                  #25
                                                  I had a feeling that they weren't just random people. Misogynistic scum.

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