Cymru, comme ca - 2021 Senedd election

[Discordant Resonance]

South Wales West:

Con, PC, Con, PC

[Patrick Thistle]

Oh even better UKIP are down 3 seats. Bwahahahahahaha

[Patrick Thistle]

North Wales = 2 Tories, 1 Llafur and 1 Plaid.

Labour on 27 seats now.

[Patrick Thistle]

Kinell

https://twitter.com/HiraethBlog/status/1390781194057433091?s=19

[Patrick Thistle]

Fucking delighted!!

https://twitter.com/WalesMaps/status/1390780914439950337?s=19

[Bizarre Löw Triangle]

Bit of a disappointment that Plaid Cymru were 21 votes from a second seat (according to the guy on S4C)

[Patrick Thistle]

Mark Drakeford thanked his "opponents from the mainstream parties" in his election speech. That's shade from the professor there. Must sting for Neil McEvoy and the horrrorshow ATWAP bloke.

[Patrick Thistle]

One takeaway

https://twitter.com/gareth_90210/status/1390784188903829504?s=19

[Bizarre Löw Triangle]

https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1390769443735756803?s=20

Drakeford was the continuity Corbyn candidate

I don't think it makes sense to view this election in terms of Corbynism. Drakeford isn't really a Corbynite by any sense and he's stuck firmly to the middle ground and his record established during the pandemic as a safe pair of hands against the more ambitious policies of Plaid Cymru.

I think he won this election because people trust him and his handling of the pandemic rather than Labour's policies representing anything particularly radical. And that he's avoided the mistakes of Scottish labour and trod a careful middle ground between unionism and independence.

[Patrick Thistle]

https://twitter.com/ifanmj/status/1390782842750255114?s=19

[Patrick Thistle]

I don't think it makes sense to view this election in terms of Corbynism. Drakeford isn't really a Corbynite by any sense and he's stuck firmly to the middle ground and his record established during the pandemic as a safe pair of hands against the more ambitious policies of Plaid Cymru.

I think he won this election because people trust him and his handling of the pandemic rather than Labour's policies representing anything particularly radical. And that he's avoided the mistakes of Scottish labour and trod a careful middle ground between unionism and independence.

He comes across as a decent, thoughtful, considerate guy, and it feels (to me anyway) that he has put Wales first during the pandemic and done things that were necessary regardless if they were politically favourable.

[Patrick Thistle]

https://twitter.com/WalesGreenParty/status/1390785624186179588?s=19

[Patrick Thistle]

Labour held the Vale.

[Discordant Resonance]

Vale of Glamorgan retained by Labour, who now move onto 28 seats - 30 seems very much probable now.

[Patrick Thistle]

If they get 2 list seats in mid Wales like they did last time they will have 30 seats.

Nobody predicted that.

[Patrick Thistle]

https://twitter.com/antccfc/status/1390783262100914176?s=19

[Patrick Thistle]

*Sorry that's a slightly nasty dig there. The difference is Wales has left of centre options.

[Patrick Thistle]

https://twitter.com/MarkDrakeford/status/1390787610902204418?s=19

[Patrick Thistle]

https://twitter.com/ITVCaroleGreen/status/1390779655758786568?s=19

[Nefertiti2]

Drakeford supported Corbyn and was the left candidate.

I'm sure that's not the basis of his success.

His principled commitment to his role, like the Salford and Preston results-show that Labour can do well when it wins and repays voters trust,

Shame that the snakes at head office have prevented that happening in so many places.

[Bizarre Löw Triangle]

He comes across as a decent, thoughtful, considerate guy, and it feels (to me anyway) that he has put Wales first during the pandemic and done things that were necessary regardless if they were politically favourable.

It's certainly not hurt Drakeford to be doing regular press conferences where the attention of the nation is on him and he gets to look statesmanlike.

Feel like the complete damp squib (so far) of the various far-right parties is the one of the interesting stories of this election. Did the people who said they'd vote abolish just stay home? Or did they lump for other parties.

ATWAP are actually doing worse on both the 2021 list votes that have been announced than they did in 2016 (despite the collapse of the UKIP vote). In North Wales the combined ATWAP, UKIP and Reform UK vote would have just about won a regional seat, in South Wales West it would still probably have fallen short.

Still slighly worried Reckless will sneak in though - UKIP got 18% of the South Wales East regional vote in 2016.

[Lang Spoon]

Also Wales isn't England and completely different dynamics are at play and not everything can be seen through a Corbyn/Novara lens.

Welsh Labour is a successful nationalist but unionist party, as Slab once was. Also they are the party of Govt that has looked a bit more competent than the WM mob throughout the whole pandemic.

[Bizarre Löw Triangle]

Lib dems squeak a regional seat in Mid and West Wales to avoid a total wipeout - think Labour's two takes them up to 30 (they're not going to win any more seats I don't think)

[Bizarre Löw Triangle]

Once you add up the total representation for the three regions which have fully declared, the 2016 result was
Labour 15
Tories 7
UKIP 4
Plaid 9
Lib Dems 1

And the same results in 2021 give
Labour 15
Tories 11
Plaid 9
Lib Dems 1

So the only movement so far is that every UKIP seat has gone to the Tories.

[Patrick Thistle]

Yes that's it for Labour. They can't win any more top up seats because the constituency seats in the South all went Labour. A deal with the 1 Lib Dem will see them in a majority. A bit like when they gave Kirsty Williams education and got to 31 last time.