Cymru, comme ca - 2021 Senedd election

[Patrick Thistle]

https://twitter.com/Welshwhippet/status/1390996708834914304?s=19

[Bizarre Löw Triangle]

What next institution will Mark Reckless get his living paid by while claiming he wants to abolish it?

[Walt Flanagans Dog]

What next institution will Mark Reckless get his living paid by while claiming he wants to abolish it?

The BBC probably

[Bizarre Löw Triangle]

https://twitter.com/Welshwhippet/status/1390996708834914304?s=19

nice thing about s4c's election coverage is we haven't had to constantly hear from any of the fringe parties, except the lib dems.

[Patrick Thistle]

Dyma achos nhw dim siarad Cymraeg.

[Patrick Thistle]

https://twitter.com/martinjohnes/status/1391002716722376705?s=19

[Patrick Thistle]

Sorry for all the tweets but hey

https://twitter.com/itslizinnit/status/1391012893039149062?s=19

[Patrick Thistle]

https://twitter.com/WalesMaps/status/1391013702237839360?s=19

[Patrick Thistle]

That's it done then. Labour 30, Conservative 16, Plaid 13, Lib Dems 1.

Still a few too many Tories for my liking but the clowncar parties have been booted out and that feels like a huge win.

[Discordant Resonance]

Final scores on the doors:

Labour 30 (+1)
Tories 16 (+5)
Plaid Cymru 13 (+1)
Lib Dems 1 (-)
UKIP/Abolish/Reform 0 (-7)

[Bizarre Löw Triangle]

The collapse of parties outside the big three means that Plaid Cymru had by any measure a rotten election but also won their highest seat count since 2007.

Also, highest ever turnout for a Senedd election.

[Bizarre Löw Triangle]

https://twitter.com/WalesMaps/status...18883243511812

[Patrick Thistle]

I worder, idly, if the next big threat to the Senedd will come from.UK Labour staff briefing against it because Mark Drakeford has shown up their limp lapdog leader.

[ooh aah]

It wouldn't surprise me, although to he honest that would prob just push more towards independence

[DCI Harry Batt]

UK Labour staff will be briefing against Starmer soon enough.

[Patrick Thistle]

The 7 UKIP members elected to the Senedd in 2016 spent most of their time quitting, joining, and quitting parties and cost the taxpayer about 2.5 million pounds all told. Their positive contribution on legislation was pretty much zilch. They kept the standards commissioner in a job though.

[Patrick Thistle]

What next institution will Mark Reckless get his living paid by while claiming he wants to abolish it?

His new name is Mark Jobless, according to Twitter.

The other Abolish guy, has put out a tweet asking people to "be kind, at least for today." Poor lamb.

[Bizarre Löw Triangle]

Couple of interesting things about this election..

Firstly, this is probably the first time since the 1997 referendum that there's been a proper credible (or at least semi-credible) anti-devolutionist option - with loads of publicity, top-billing in the debates etc - and it totally died on its arse. Despite efforts to position it on an equal footing with arguments about independence, and even if polling suggests a higher proportion of people would vote against devolution were it put up to referendum, it's clearly pretty far down peoples' political priorities.

Secondly, the nature of the election raises a load of interesting questions for (Welsh) Labour. On Thursday Labour increased their votes among their traditional electorate - leave-voting, less qualified, older voters - and won them in fairly large numbers, while the same voters deserted the party in England. In previous elections - including 2019 - areas of Wales (apart from the West) voted in similar ways to equivalent English regions.

Maybe it's possible to write it all off as a bounce for incumbent parties brought about by coming out of a pandemic and it will all go back to normal next time around. But it feels like people have started paying attention to the work of devolved institutions in Wales rather than subscribing entirely to narratives driven by the UK media and voting on that basis.

If this does represent a change in attitude towards devolution as a whole, it's interesting, cos with English Labour looking like it's in long-term decline and won't return to power for at least the next decade, Welsh Labour is going to have to defend (and attempt to expand) the powers of the devolved government against a hostile English Nationalist government at Westminster, while at the same time keep independence support in check.

[Discordant Resonance]

Couple of interesting things about this election..

Firstly, this is probably the first time since the 1997 referendum that there's been a proper credible (or at least semi-credible) anti-devolutionist option - with loads of publicity, top-billing in the debates etc - and it totally died on its arse. Despite efforts to position it on an equal footing with arguments about independence, and even if polling suggests a higher proportion of people would vote against devolution were it put up to referendum, it's clearly pretty far down peoples' political priorities.

Secondly, the nature of the election raises a load of interesting questions for (Welsh) Labour. On Thursday Labour increased their votes among their traditional electorate - leave-voting, less qualified, older voters - and won them in fairly large numbers, while the same voters deserted the party in England. In previous elections - including 2019 - areas of Wales (apart from the West) voted in similar ways to equivalent English regions.

Maybe it's possible to write it all off as a bounce for incumbent parties brought about by coming out of a pandemic and it will all go back to normal next time around. But it feels like people have started paying attention to the work of devolved institutions in Wales rather than subscribing entirely to narratives driven by the UK media and voting on that basis.

If this does represent a change in attitude towards devolution as a whole, it's interesting, cos with English Labour looking like it's in long-term decline and won't return to power for at least the next decade, Welsh Labour is going to have to defend (and attempt to expand) the powers of the devolved government against a hostile English Nationalist government at Westminster, while at the same time keep independence support in check.

It seems that Drakeford was able to tap into Welsh national sentiment during the pandemic in terms of portraying Johnson's legislative approach as attempting to ride roughshod over devolution, and Welsh Labour appear to be perceived as more autonomous from London, at least since the Carwyn Jones era, whereas the progressive desiccation of Scottish Labour under Blair and Brown contributed to its continual decline, even before Better Together. Of course, the pincer attack from both the Tories and the Greens complicates any paradigm shift for the English party, which may well have to take local approaches, as what works best in Portsmouth may not necessarily be effective in Preston, and vice-versa.

[Bizarre Löw Triangle]

There's some talk of the Welsh Green Party breaking off from the current Englandandwales organisation. Feel like it's something Welsh Labour should consider sooner rather than later too.

[Bizarre Löw Triangle]

It seems that Drakeford was able to tap into Welsh national sentiment during the pandemic in terms of portraying Johnson's legislative approach as attempting to ride roughshod over devolution, and Welsh Labour appear to be perceived as more autonomous from London, at least since the Carwyn Jones era, whereas the progressive desiccation of Scottish Labour under Blair and Brown contributed to its continual decline, even before Better Together. Of course, the pincer attack from both the Tories and the Greens complicates any paradigm shift for the English party, which may well have to take local approaches, as what works best in Portsmouth may not necessarily be effective in Preston, and vice-versa.

It was Rhodri Morgan who first announced "clear red water" between Welsh and UK Labour. His special advisor at the time (and architect of the position) was Mark Drakeford.

[ooh aah]

Well Rhodri had of course been fucked over by Labour HQ when they parachuted Alun Michael in. That backfired almost immediately, Plaid had a bigger vote share in 99 than the SNP did in their election. Rhodri's resulting time in charge really should have been a lesson for SLab, but obviously they knew better.

[Patrick Thistle]

Not sure the Lib Dems can afford to contest Wales any more

https://twitter.com/twmalun/status/1391445521047429121?s=19

[Antepli Ejderha]

It's looking like Wales has become a three party state with Labour and Plaid natural allies against Westminster. When Scotland becomes independent it'll be interesting to see how Wales Labour responds, especially as the Labour Party in England is a shambles yet independent minded Labour is strong.

[Patrick Thistle]

I think if Scotland went and it worked the main argument against leaving the UK would disappear. At the moment "you won't survive on your own" is the most common argument against independence for Cymru.