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    #76
    Originally posted by TonTon View Post
    Essentially, as always, the problem is capitalism. And people will die as a result.
    I'm sure anarchy would sort everything out.

    Capitalism sucks, but it does leave room for basic utility services.

    Comment


      #77
      "One hundred year events" are supposed to be those that have a statistical probability of occurring of 1 percent in any given year.

      Which is a rather different thing than those that are guaranteed only occur once every 100 years.

      And that's before one examines whether the models are accurate and being kept up to date.

      As global temperatures continue to rise, 100-year floods could become annual occurrences in parts of the United States, according to new research published in the journal Nature Communications. The increase in severe coastal flooding events by the end of this century will be due to rising sea levels and stronger, more frequent tropical storms and hurricanes, the study concluded.
      https://e360.yale.edu/digest/100-yea...-s-study-finds

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        #78
        Meanwhile, Ted Cruz and family buggered off to Cancun for some ill-considered fun in the sun.

        https://us.cnn.com/2021/02/18/politi...ter/index.html

        Comment


          #79
          Originally posted by ursus arctos View Post
          "One hundred year events" are supposed to be those that have a statistical probability of occurring of 1 percent in any given year.

          Which is a rather different thing than those that are guaranteed only occur once every 100 years.

          And that's before one examines whether the models are accurate and being kept up to date.
          Well, this is the crux of it. That and you are really meant to manage to 1 in 1000 year events really, with that all dealt with using extreme value theory.

          In the idea of "never events" - one of the more famous CDOs in the Financial Crisis had "house prices go down" as a never event. Phrases like these are often ways of trying to sound really considered about the risks that are being taken, but when you scratch even the slightest beneath the surface they are very often based on terrible assumptions.

          Comment


            #80
            Originally posted by ursus arctos View Post
            "One hundred year events" are supposed to be those that have a statistical probability of occurring of 1 percent in any given year.

            Which is a rather different thing than those that are guaranteed only occur once every 100 years.

            And that's before one examines whether the models are accurate and being kept up to date.
            Carlisle suffered a major flood in 2005, and the official view was:

            The flood event in January 2005 affected approximately 1600 properties and led to the loss of 3 lives. That event had an estimated Annual Exceedence Probability (AEP) of 0.59% (1 in 170) of flooding occurring in any one year.

            Imagine our hilarity when we were hit with an even worse flood 11 years later.

            Comment


              #81
              Originally posted by Etienne View Post
              Isn't that because you are thinking of it as a heating issue rather than a cooling issue (for California)?
              "Bemused" was probably the wrong word there, I understand why, it just looked jarring.

              Comment


                #82
                Originally posted by ursus arctos View Post
                "One hundred year events" are supposed to be those that have a statistical probability of occurring of 1 percent in any given year.

                Which is a rather different thing than those that are guaranteed only occur once every 100 years.

                And that's before one examines whether the models are accurate and being kept up to date.

                https://e360.yale.edu/digest/100-yea...-s-study-finds
                Does that suggest that it's as crude as looking at historic data and taking maximum values over 100 years?

                Comment


                  #83
                  Here is a long thread from 2 days ago talking about the different power sources in Texas and how much they were expected to contribute to all power sources:

                  https://twitter.com/JesseJenkins/sta...91683222654980

                  This seems to be the biggest problem:

                  https://twitter.com/JesseJenkins/status/1361698542386053122

                  The demand was higher and the plant outages were beyond what the state planned for in "extreme" scenarios. They didn't conceive that it could possibly be as bad as it was. Not sure if that's down to them not anticipating that weather would be as bad as it got, or if there were other factors they were taking into consideration in their inadequate planning.

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                    #84
                    Originally posted by TonTon View Post

                    Does that suggest that it's as crude as looking at historic data and taking maximum values over 100 years?
                    It can be just that crude (even cruder in practice)

                    Comment


                      #85
                      I discovered today that Texas's electrical grid is managed by ERCOT, which stands for Electric Realiability Council of Texas. You have to admire the humour, if nothing else.

                      Comment


                        #86
                        Originally posted by ursus arctos View Post

                        It can be just that crude (even cruder in practice)
                        Right. Well then that's bollocks.

                        Comment


                          #87
                          It doesn't have to be, but often is

                          As dglh notes, the key is the assumptions underlying the model

                          Comment


                            #88
                            Originally posted by WOM View Post
                            Meanwhile, Ted Cruz and family buggered off to Cancun for some ill-considered fun in the sun.

                            https://us.cnn.com/2021/02/18/politi...ter/index.html
                            Hopefully he'll get stuck in immigration hell in the same way as a group of Romanians just did https://www.romania-insider.com/ro-c...exico-feb-2021

                            Comment


                              #89
                              Originally posted by Incandenza View Post
                              Not sure if that's down to them not anticipating that weather would be as bad as it got, or if there were other factors they were taking into consideration in their inadequate planning.
                              I've still not seen any real explanation of why the thermal plants were offline. Surely they've said something by now.

                              Comment


                                #90
                                Is Mexico typically a big tourist destination for Romanians?

                                Comment


                                  #91
                                  Originally posted by Bruno View Post
                                  Here's the statement in full by that former mayor of Colorado City, TX:

                                  Horrific. The best line though is "the weak will parish". Unintended suggestion that perhaps the weak will turn to religion.

                                  Comment


                                    #92
                                    I've never heard of anyone from here going there. Now I don't live in a big city and mix with the middle class, so that's not necessarily meaningful, but my guess is very few people go there in normal years but this year? I have no real guess as to who these people were. Wealthy (relatively) for sure but beyond that. Bo

                                    Edit:@WOM

                                    Comment


                                      #93
                                      Originally posted by ursus arctos View Post
                                      It doesn't have to be, but often is

                                      As dglh notes, the key is the assumptions underlying the model
                                      I'm sure that there can be some useful modelling that can happen, and that some probably does. But talk of "one hundred year floods" out there in the wild of public discourse seems to be a load of bollocks.

                                      Comment


                                        #94
                                        https://www.texastribune.org/2021/02...s-power-storm/

                                        It appears that a lot of the generation that has gone offline today has been primarily due to issues on the natural gas system,” Woodfin said during a Tuesday call with reporters.

                                        The Texas Tribune thanks its sponsors. Become one.

                                        Production of natural gas in the state has plunged, making it difficult for power plants to get the fuel necessary to run the plants. Natural gas power plants usually don’t have very much fuel storage on site, experts said. Instead, the plants rely on the constant flow of natural gas from pipelines that run across the state from areas like the Permian Basin in West Texas to major demand centers like Houston and Dallas.

                                        In early February, Texas operators were producing about 24 billion cubic feet per day, according to an estimate by S&P Global Platts. But on Monday, Texas production plummeted to a fraction of that: Operators in the state produced somewhere between 12 billion and 17 billion cubic feet per day.

                                        The systems that get gas from the earth aren’t properly built for cold weather. Operators in West Texas’ Permian Basin, one of the most productive oil fields in the world, are particularly struggling to bring natural gas to the surface, analysts said, as cold weather and snow close wells or cause power outages that prevent pumping the fossil fuels from the ground.

                                        “Gathering lines freeze, and the wells get so cold that they can’t produce,” said Parker Fawcett, a natural gas analyst for S&P Global Platts. “And pumps use electricity, so they’re not even able to lift that gas and liquid, because there’s no power to produce.”

                                        Comment


                                          #95
                                          Originally posted by TonTon View Post

                                          I'm sure that there can be some useful modelling that can happen, and that some probably does. But talk of "one hundred year floods" out there in the wild of public discourse seems to be a load of bollocks.
                                          Very much so

                                          Issue with models and assumptions are one thing, but the way the concept is used with the general public is often criminal

                                          Comment


                                            #96
                                            Originally posted by ad hoc View Post
                                            I've never heard of anyone from here going there. Now I don't live in a big city and mix with the middle class, so that's not necessarily meaningful, but my guess is very few people go there in normal years but this year? I have no real guess as to who these people were. Wealthy (relatively) for sure but beyond that. Bo

                                            Edit:@WOM
                                            Cheers.

                                            We ran into a lot of Russians in Cuba, which is understandable. But it still seems like a long way to go for a warm-weather holiday. Bo...

                                            Comment


                                              #97
                                              About ten years ago, I worked with some colleagues who were looking at flood risk. The environment agency issues publicly available maps with lines saying "1 in 100 year" flood risk and "1 in 1,000 year" flood risk. Now, aside from the fact that these were based on historical data and flood risk is increasing (partly due to climate change, partly due to building on flood plains, partly due to everyone paving over their front gardens, amongst other reasons), it turns out that the labels were very misleading. The "1 in 100 year" line actually meant any risk up to and including "1 in 100 year" risks, so could be anything from once a year risk to once a century risk. And the "1 in 1,000" year line meant anything between "1 in 100" and "1 in 1,000".

                                              If I ever buy a house, I will be looking at the Environment Agency maps for both surface water flooding and sea and river flooding and not buying anything that is anywhere near any of the blue lines.

                                              Comment


                                                #98
                                                Going off on a bit of a tangent, I wondered if water freezing could help generate electricity.

                                                https://link.springer.com/article/10...452-018-0139-z

                                                Perhaps someone could forward to Greg Abbott or the head honcho at ERCOT before he's forced to resign.

                                                Comment


                                                  #99
                                                  Originally posted by Balderdasha View Post
                                                  partly due to everyone paving over their front gardens
                                                  Have we banned this yet?

                                                  (Thanks for the EA info)

                                                  Comment


                                                    Originally posted by WOM View Post
                                                    Meanwhile, Ted Cruz and family buggered off to Cancun for some ill-considered fun in the sun.

                                                    https://us.cnn.com/2021/02/18/politi...ter/index.html
                                                    https://youtu.be/EsF1LhhyyVg

                                                    Comment

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